Deutsche Bank Research - Talking pointhttp://www.dbresearch.comPodcast-Newsfeed by Deutsche Bank ResearchPodcast-Newsfeed by Deutsche Bank ResearchCopyright 2003-2008, DB Research, Deutsche Bank AGmarketing.dbr@db.comFri, 05 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0100http://www.dbresearch.com/dbr/images/rss/logo.gifhttp://www.dbresearch.comDB ResearchDB Research commentaries on business, society and the financial marketsDeutsche Bank Research's focus is on the analysis of economic, societal and financial-market trends, i.e. the environment in which Deutsche Bank operates. DB Research stands for high-quality, independent analysis. It actively promotes public debate on economic, fiscal, labour-market and social-policy issues. NoDeutsche Bank Research Economy Politics For months now, soaring government debt has shaped public debate over economic policy in the eurozone. One often overlooked aspect is that the deficits of some countries are not only attributable to crisis-related revenue shortfalls and higher spending or poor budget policy. They are partly also due to reduced growth prospects resulting from a country’s lack of competitiveness. The differences in competitiveness are increasingly becoming a problem for EMU, especially since the gaps between the member states have grown over the past few years...http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000253541.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comFri, 05 Feb 2010 00:00:00 +0100Economic trends, EMU, European policy issues, Exchange rates, Intern. economic system, Intern. relations, International financial markets, Monetary policyENThe international financial position of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) has improved beyond recognition, reflected largely in their large official FX reserves. However, as of 2008, only China and Russia were creditors in terms of their net international investment position. China is already the world’s second largest net creditor, trailing only Japan. On current trends, China will not only replace the US as the world’s largest economy over the course of the next two decades, but it will also replace Japan as the world’s largest net international creditor...http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000253249.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comWed, 27 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0100Asia, Eastern Europe, Emerging markets, LatAmENThe global automotive industry endured a year of turmoil in 2009. Many governments launched subsidy schemes in response to the deep recession afflicting the sector. These schemes triggered widely varying market developments last year. Although the global automotive sector has in recent months emerged from its trough, the expiry of support measures together with the overcapacities in the sector suggest that further difficulties will materialise in 2010 and beyond...http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000252639.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comThu, 21 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0100Auto industry, Sectors / commoditiesENEmpirical evidence suggests that savings rise after economic growth takes off. Economic reform and stabilization in Brazil seem to have triggered just such a growth take-off. However, in order for the virtuous cycle to be sustained at an ever higher level of 5% (or more), the government would need to allow domestic savings to rise. Officials frequently point to the significant levels of inequality and poverty and Brazil’s democratic political system in an attempt to rationalize why a reduction in government expenditure is neither desirable nor feasible. A look at India’s experience in the 2000s suggests that this view is overly pessimistic...http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000252596.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comWed, 13 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0100Emerging markets, Fiscal policyENVenture capital is an indicator of future economic trends, which suggests that there will be a shift away from IT and telecommunication towards energy, biotechnology and medical technology. The share of VC investments in startups from the energy sector in particular reacts strongly to oil price movements.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000252213.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comMon, 04 Jan 2010 00:00:00 +0100Capital markets, Capital markets policy, Economic policy, Economic trends, Energy policy, Energy sector, Environmental policy, Environmental protection, eResearch, Information technology, Internet, Macroeconomics, Megatopics, Sectors / commoditiesENThe plenary session of the 193 participating countries decided to merely note the “Copenhagen Accord”, the three-page minimalist consensus document drawn up by the G-20-plus group on the final day of the conference. It did not give its explicit approval to the accord. This means that following marathon negotiations the two-week climate summit ended on a disappointing note...http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000252098.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comWed, 23 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0100Economic policy, Energy and climate change, Energy policy, Energy sector, Environmental policy, Environmental protection, Megatopics, Sectors / commoditiesENGermans simply cannot make up their minds. With close to 15% of its GDP being generated in the shadow economy, Germany muddles along at the European average. Germans are neither impeccably honest in their work ethic, like the Austrians, nor do they expend so much effort in circumventing the state as, for instance, the Greeks. One reaps what one sows: the economic crisis hit the indecisive Germans particularly hard with a 5% contraction of GDP. Going forward, there’s probably only one solution: regardless of whether it is “good” or “bad”, Germans should decide on one approach and stick with it...http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000252019.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comMon, 21 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0100Economic growth, Economic policy, Labour market, Macroeconomics, Tax policyENAn unprecedentedly low level of interest rates in the advanced economies has triggered a massive surge in capital flows to emerging markets. In order to stem further currency appreciation, Brazil has stepped up FX intervention and introduced a tax on capital inflows. Should capital inflows persist and the exchange rate remain under pressure, the central bank may well opt for greater FX intervention, not least in order to pre-empt potential threats to its autonomy. Should the central bank resist greater intervention, the government may feel compelled to choose between curtailing the autonomy of the central bank and tightening capital controls.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000251631.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comTue, 15 Dec 2009 14:00:00 +0100Emerging markets, International financial systemENLess than 8% unemployment in a country that until recently was looked upon as the sick man of Europe: Germany's labour market has turned into the star performer on the international stage. But nevertheless, wage costs are high and businesses are groaning under their weight. One million short-time workers provide sufficient proof of this. If the wage increases agreed next year are similar to those in 2009, then the worst still lies ahead for Germany. The country would be better advised to use the crisis to provide employees with further training and shelve wage increases until the economy is back on track.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000251603.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comMon, 14 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0100Education, Labour market, Labour market policy, Prices, inflation, Real econ. trendsENThe German government is currently examining whether to renew funding once again for its short-time working programme known as Kurzarbeit. However, the saying that "long and lots help a lot" must not necessarily apply to the labour market. It is still too early to say whether short-time working will successfully guide Germany through the recession or else erode productivity gains of the past few years and lastingly impair the competitiveness of German companies.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000251240.MP3marketing.dbr@db.comThu, 03 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0100Economic policy, Labour market, Labour market policy, MacroeconomicsEN