http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/RSS_GROUP_HOME_EN.caliasHere are the latest publications and articles of DB Research. DB Research is one of the world's leading think tanks for trends in business, society and the financial markets.enFri, 03 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0200ResearchCopyright 1996-2006, DB Research, Deutsche Bank AGmarketing.dbr@db.comhttp://www.dbresearch.com/dbr/images/rss/logo.gifhttp://www.dbresearch.comDebate is currently raging in Germany about changes to tax legislation on account of the general election campaign, high public debt and the economic crisis. Some people are calling for tax increases with a view to reducing the ballooning debt, while the already heavy tax burden in Germany is prompting others to advocate tax cuts. In so doing, both sides are neglecting the overriding priority: the need for simplification of Germany’s tax legislation...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000243616&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODFri, 03 Jul 2009 00:00:00 +0200Fiscal policy, Tax policyPROD0000000000243616http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000243673&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODTue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0200PROD0000000000243673The rules endorsed by the Federal Constitutional Court are not compatible with the business model of private health insurers. Political efforts to bolster the statutory health insurers by increasing the burden on private insurers are misguided. Instead of boosting sustainability they will diminish it...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000243615&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODTue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0200Economic policy, Health care, Social policyPROD0000000000243615Sovereign spreads within the euro zone rose sharply between September 2008 and March 2009 as markets began to worry about the fiscal fallout from the global financial crisis. It appears that the country-specific fiscal and external positions were the key drivers in the recent widening of sovereign bond and CDS spreads. However, compared to historical default risk and the assigned default probabilities by external rating agencies, market-implied probabilities of default appear to be too high for most member states. The transformation of banking-sector risk into sovereign risk might partly explain the drastic spread widening of some EMU countries hit by banking-sector distress.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000243619.pdfMon, 29 Jun 2009 14:00:00 +0200Capital markets, EMU, European issues, Macroeconomics, Quantitative analysis, Real econ. trends, Risk modelsPROD0000000000243619The risk of an emerging markets (EMs) crisis seems to be receding fast. It is remarkable, though not really surprising, how resilient the EMs have proven in the face of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression. EMs with large liquid liabilities relative to liquid assets have proven especially vulnerable. Policy-makers will conclude that the marginal benefits of reserve accumulation continue to outweigh its cost...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000243266&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODFri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0200Africa, Asia, Contagion, Eastern Europe, Emerging markets, Exchange rates, LatAm, Middle East, Risk / Country RiskPROD0000000000243266The purpose of economic activity is certainly not exporting. Consumption is closer to the truth. But even closer is the sustainable augmentation of prosperity. What prosperity is, and what makes its augmentation sustainable, however, is open to debate. Some people think that prosperity is all about personal consumption and specifically our current consumption...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000243039&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODTue, 23 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0200Demographics, Economic growth, Economic trends, Education, eResearch, Fiscal policy, Germany, Globalisation, Intern. economic system, Intern. relations, Labour market, Labour market policy, Real econ. trends, Sectors / commodities, Social values / Consumer behaviour, TradePROD0000000000243039Five years after the Ecofin Council reached agreement on the Savings Taxation Directive, the European Commission has submitted a proposal on its extension. The prevailing political climate for more cooperation and exchange of information between the States has improved significantly in recent months. A flurry of new bilateral agreements, initiatives at OECD level and further EU proposals for directives underscore the momentum that has gathered here. Negotiations on amendment of the Savings Taxation Directive will presumably not drag on again.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000243300.pdfMon, 22 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0200Banking, Capital markets policy, Economic policy, European integration, Fiscal policy, International financial markets, International financial system, Tax policyPROD0000000000243300Aside from trade-related services, financial services play an important role in Hong Kong's economy. Within this sector, the banking sector gained importance over the past years, not least due to banks‘ growing engagement in mainland China. We take a look at how Hong Kong's banks fared so far in the current global economic and financial crisis and assess the potential implications for the territory's prospects as Asia's global financial center.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000242795.pdfFri, 19 Jun 2009 00:00:00 +0200Asia, Banking, Emerging markets, International financial system, MegatopicsPROD0000000000242795http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000243051&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODWed, 17 Jun 2009 12:34:00 +0200Food and beverages, Sectors / commoditiesPROD0000000000243051Chinese authorities recently proposed the end to the dollar’s time as a reserve currency. While this might indeed come true, observers should notice that it’s neither SDRs nor the yuan, it is the euro to gain importance for now and the coming decade...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000243040&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODWed, 17 Jun 2009 10:04:00 +0200Asia, Capital markets, EMU, Exchange rates, IMF / World Bank, International financial markets, Monetary policy, Prices, inflationPROD0000000000243040