http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/RSS_GROUP_HOME_EN.caliasHere are the latest publications and articles of DB Research. DB Research is one of the world's leading think tanks for trends in business, society and the financial markets.enFri, 21 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100ResearchCopyright 1996-2006, DB Research, Deutsche Bank AGmarketing.dbr@db.comhttp://www.dbresearch.com/dbr/images/rss/logo.gifhttp://www.dbresearch.comThe real economy is increasingly feeling the effects of the financial crisis, the euro area is in recession, and Germany’s export markets are showing pronounced weaknesses. German manufacturing – the economy’s former driving force – looks set to grow only marginally this year, even though capital goods segments like mechanical and electrical engineering, for instance, haven been profitting from strong order books in 2008. For next year we expect production of overall manufacturing to fall by 2.5%. We see no improvement of the tense situation in the consumption-related segments of industry. http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000233978.pdfFri, 21 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100Auto industry, Chemicals industry, Construction industry, Economic growth, Electrical engineering, Food and beverages, Macroeconomics, Mechanical engineering, Retail trade, Sectors / commodities, Steel industry, Textiles and clothing industryPROD0000000000233978The German automobile industry is starting to slide into a deep recession – the first since 1993. The US auto market has been on the skids for a long time already. This year major European markets are also spluttering. New car registrations have nosedived primarily in those countries where the property market crisis has been particularly severe, that is in Spain, the UK and Ireland. The Italians, too, are currently feeling little inclination to buy new cars. And the German car market has not built up momentum in 2008, although the base is already very low following the sharp declines last year. The BRIC countries are still acting as a stabilising factor in 2008, but the growth impetus provided by these countries will recede significantly or disappear altogether in 2009...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000234259&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODWed, 19 Nov 2008 02:45:00 +0100Auto industry, Economic policy, Environmental policy, Sectors / commodities, Tax policyPROD0000000000234259Germany's economic prospects have paled significantly. The federal government recently corrected its growth forecast for 2009 downwards to 0.2%. We currently forecast a decline in manufacturing output of no less than 2.5%. What does this mean for a sector as cyclical as the semiconductor industry?Even during the growth years of 2006 and 2007 it was only the production side of the sector that managed to benefit from Germany's economic expansion. Nominal sales fell by some 4% in both years. The reason for this was the dramatic drop in product prices, one of the biggest challenges for the sector. Although the German Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers’ Association has been more optimistic of late regarding the current year, an improvement in the business situation appears unrealistic given the downbeat expectations for the coming year. Output must now be expected to contract in 2009 – in contrast to the last two years...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000233414&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODFri, 14 Nov 2008 10:51:00 +0100Economic growth, Electrical engineering, Other sectors, Sectors / commoditiesPROD0000000000233414Climate change harbours opportunities for construction and its ancillary industries because construction work is frequently needed to reduce CO2 emissions from buildings. More weather extremes are also likely to cause greater property damage going forward – and the associated clean-up and repair work, as well as preventive measures, will generate business for the construction industry and building materials suppliers. What is more, in the coming decades Germany’s power plants will require extensive investment. We sketch out three scenarios featuring differing degrees of environmental regulation and estimate the value of construction work occasioned by climate change and environmental policies up to 2030. http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000233938.pdfFri, 14 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100Commercial real estate, Construction industry, Energy and climate change, Energy policy, Energy sector, Environmental policy, Fiscal policy, Housing policy, Megatopics, Real estate, Residential real estate, Retail trade, Sectors / commodities, Transport, Transport policyPROD0000000000233938Leaders of the G-20 countries will meet in Washington in mid-November to discuss the future architecture of the world's financial markets. The invitation to the summit was issued by the outgoing US president. With the financial market crisis having escalated following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the awareness of the need to overhaul the system has been boosted. Hopefully, the rescue packages in major countries have succeeded in putting out the fire. Now the house must be rebuilt. I hardly dare gauge the chances of creating a solid new structure at this point in time...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000233980&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODThu, 13 Nov 2008 10:34:00 +0100Banking, Capital markets, Capital markets policy, Exchange rates, IMF / World Bank, Intern. economic system, International financial markets, Supervision and regulationPROD0000000000233980http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000233935&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODWed, 12 Nov 2008 09:32:00 +0100Capital markets, SMEsPROD0000000000233935The election of the 44th president and 111th Congress of the United States on November 4 left no doubts about the political outcome: after a dramatic election campaign Democratic Senator Barack Obama scored a clear victory over his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain, with a resounding majority of the electoral college votes (roughly twice as mainly as for McCain) and of the popular vote (about 53%). Barack Obama won in nearly all of the decisive swing states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and even Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. The Democrats managed almost a clean sweep of the entire east and west coasts as well as the Great Lakes states...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000233739&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODFri, 07 Nov 2008 09:16:00 +0100Economic policy, International financial system, Macroeconomics, Politics and electionsPROD0000000000233739http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000233690.pdfWed, 05 Nov 2008 03:56:00 +0100PROD0000000000233690Since August 2007 the financial market crisis has subjected EMU to severe stress testing, particularly just recently. So far EMU has worked far better than many sceptics expected. But once again it has clearly emerged that Community approaches to problem-solving rather than national action are what increasingly matter, along with the proper political leadership. With global markets so tightly networked, crisis management requires a high degree of international cooperation and coordination between governments and central banks...http://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?addmenu=false&document=PROD0000000000233682&rdLeftMargin=10&rdShowArchivedDocus=true&rwdspl=0&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PRODWed, 05 Nov 2008 03:09:00 +0100EMU, EU enlargement, European issues, International financial systemPROD0000000000233682Many customers search the internet for information about financial products and services. An online search often precedes a purchase. They look for specific details, compare prices and interest rates or read third-party reviews. However, a majority of customers believes they are beginners rather than experts of financial issues. This means that many still seek validation from a personal consultation in a bank branch.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000233219.pdfWed, 05 Nov 2008 00:00:00 +0100Banking, Digital economy, E-commerce, eResearch, Internet, MegatopicsPROD0000000000233219