http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/RSS_RESNOTES_EN.caliasHere are the latest issues in our Research Notes series.Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0100ResearchCopyright 1996-2010, DB Research, Deutsche Bank AGmarketing.dbr@db.comhttp://www.dbresearch.com/dbr/images/rss/logo.gifhttp://www.dbresearch.comBefore Gary Gensler became its chairman, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) held the view that speculators had little influence on the price of crude oil, but since then a reassessment has been taking place. This article measures speculator activity on the basis of variables contained in the weekly CFTC market reports and analyses speculator influence on crude oil prices and crude oil price volatility using econometric procedures. The results suggest an influence of speculators’ dispersion in beliefs on both crude oil prices and price volatility. http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000251256/Do+speculators+drive+crude+oil+prices%3F+Dispersion+in+beliefs+as+a+price+determinant.pdfTue, 15 Dec 2009 00:00:00 +0100Economic policy, Energy policy, Gas industry, Quantitative analysis, Sectors / commoditiesPROD0000000000251256Historical evidence suggests that past banking crises were often linked to boom and bust cycles in lending, asset prices, output or exchange rates. We develop an early-warning system to monitor such risks and show how this tool can be implemented in practice. While an early-warning system can help to detect macro risks to the banking sector at the country level – which could also be observed before the current crisis – it has to be complemented by a thorough micro prudential analysis, i.e. assessing banking systems’ resilience to domestic or international systemic shocks.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000233167/Monitoring+banking+sector+risks%3A+An+applied+approach.pdfTue, 28 Oct 2008 00:00:00 +0100Banking, Emerging markets, Exchange rates, International financial markets, International financial system, Macroeconomics, Risk / Country Risk, Supervision and regulationPROD0000000000233167Sovereign wealth funds have become important players in global financial markets. But their investments have repeatedly raised concerns, such as fear of industrial espionage or geopolitical threats. This paper argues that the principal motivation for setting up SWFs should put such concerns into the appropriate perspective. Development economics can explain both the funding sources and the motives that have led to the recent SWF boom, thus helping to prevent the imposition of investment restrictions in OECD countries.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000227899/How+to+spend+it%3A+Commodity+and+non-commodity+sovereign+wealth+funds.pdfFri, 18 Jul 2008 00:00:00 +0200Asia, Banking, Capital markets policy, Economic policy, Emerging markets, Globalisation, IMF / World Bank, International financial markets, International financial system, Middle East, Supervision and regulationPROD0000000000227899India’s actual export specialisation in IT services is unrivalled by any comparable country and it is evidence of a strong comparative advantage. This paper finds that India owes its IT specialisation in part to its reliance on offshoring - driven by the supply of well-educated, English-speaking and affordable workers - but also to a shift away from high-tech manufacturing exports. Going forward, India's specialisation on IT and other high-tech exports may decline as rising wages erode one of the reasons for offshoring. http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000217530/India%27s+specialisation+in+IT+exports%3A+Offshoring+can%27t+defy+gravity.pdfThu, 15 Nov 2007 00:00:00 +0100Asia, Digital economy, Economic policy, Emerging markets, Globalisation, Information technology, Intern. economic system, Key issues, Quantitative analysis, Technology and innovationPROD0000000000217530The empirical analysis in this paper supports the view that the status of the US dollar as a “safe haven” is closely related to the development of the US current account and the US net foreign debt. Safe haven purchases of the US dollar can still be recorded in the 1989-2006 period despite the rapid growth of the US current account deficit since the mid-1990s. Possible explanations include the changed structure of US dollar investors, the concept of an implicit US-Asian currency peg and the increased prominence of alleviating valuation changes in the US net foreign position. http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000214099/The+US+dollar%3A+Safe+haven+-+Despite+rising+US+current+account+deficit.pdfMon, 06 Aug 2007 03:31:00 +0200Exchange rates, International financial system, MacroeconomicsPROD0000000000214099This paper presents a novel theoretical and empirical approach to the analysis of long-run economic growth. It shows that most theoretical models share the feature of pair-wise cointegration among the main variables. An augmented Kaldor model is proposed in contrast to the standard production function. The empirical analysis employs non-stationary panel techniques on two groups of countries to show that pair-wise cointegration exists among GDP, physical capital, human capital and trade openness.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000205893/Pair-wise+cointegration+in+long-run+growth+models.pdfFri, 09 Feb 2007 09:48:00 +0100Economic growth, Education, Macroeconomics, Sectors / commoditiesPROD0000000000205893Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We find a statistically and economically significant positive effect of public export guarantees on exports which indicates that export promotion is indeed effective. Furthermore, political risk turns out to be a robust determinant of exports and hence should be taken into account in any empirical model of trade.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000204668/Political+risk+and+export+promotion+-+Evidence+from+Germany+.pdfWed, 20 Dec 2006 02:27:00 +0100Econometrics, Intern. economic system, Intern. relations, Risk / Country RiskPROD0000000000204668The divergence of growth and inflation rates across EMU in recent years has reignited the debate as to whether Europe is really an "optimum currency area" in which monetary union yields net benefits. But answering this question is complicated inter alia by the further controversy over whether economic integration and monetary union tend to cause convergence or divergence of business cycles. Anyway policy-makers need to do more to improve their economies' flexibility, in order to make them better able to cope with the remaining heterogeneity in output and inflation. http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000203221/Business+cycle+synchronisation+in+the+euro+area%3A+Developments%2C+determinants+and+implications.pdfWed, 11 Oct 2006 03:25:00 +0200Economic growth, EMU, Monetary policy, Prices, inflationPROD0000000000203221With the "more economic approach" the EU is taking a new tack on merger policy. The aim of a (better) economic foundation is expressly welcomed. However, on closer analysis it is found that this in fact creates less legal certainty while the upshot in terms of decision quality is at least unclear. At the same time, the (administrative) burden is likely to rise. Furthermore, there are important institutional implications which have received little consideration to date. All in all, a broader perception of an economics-based approach is called for. Specific recommendations are the establishment of an independent competition authority and the stronger orientation of merger control to (more) general rules. http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000196093/The+%22more+economic+approach%22+in+EU+merger+control+-+A+critical+assessment.pdfWed, 01 Mar 2006 00:00:00 +0100Capital markets, Economic policy, European issues, European policy issuesPROD0000000000196093Since the mid-1990s, large movements in stock prices have not only raised central bankers' and policy-makers' interest in their implications for real economic activity, but have also led to extensive empirical research in this field. While most of the studies have focussed on the United States or the euro area as a whole, this paper is one of the few providing empirical evidence for Germany.http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000192088/Stock+prices+and+real+economic+activity+-+Empirical+results+for+Germany.pdfFri, 14 Oct 2005 00:00:00 +0200Capital markets, Economic growth, Macroeconomics, Real econ. trendsPROD0000000000192088