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    Global
    UN Climate Summit: The most inconvenient message remains unsaidoverlay
    December 14, 2018
    Talking Point
    Ahead of and during the UN Climate Summit at Katowice, the usual warnings were heard, saying that a reduction in global carbon emissions was urgently necessary. However, these political calls are much too vague. Instead, the most inconvenient message remains unsaid: The technologies which are available today and in the foreseeable future will, in all probability, prove insufficient to counteract climate change to the necessary extent and with the necessary speed and, at the same time, allow households to stick to their consumption patterns and continue with the well-established division of labour along international production chains.
    The multiple stages of the blockchain revolution – or into the crypto future and backoverlay
    December 12, 2018
    EU Monitor
    Since the rally in 2017, the buzzwords bitcoin and blockchain have been omnipresent in the public. Still, the understanding of how much potential the technology actually offers is often rudimentary. To shed more light onto the discussion, we discuss the manifold technological facets as well as the social changes that might come on the heels of the technology. After outlining the utopia, we point out the technical as well as the social hurdles that are standing in the way of the revolution.
    Air transport and tourism: more and more serious growing painsoverlay
    November 21, 2018
    Talking Point
    Steady growth in air transport is leading to capacity bottlenecks, both in terms of available planes and at individual airports. Capacities will need to be increased, which means that more money must be earmarked for fixed-asset investments as well as labour and operating expenses. Taken together, the growing pains in the aviation sector and the rise in jet fuel prices may prove an overwhelming chal-lenge for some market participants. Air transport growth has also resulted in higher capacity utilisation in related sectors, such as tourism (the “overtourism” phenomenon comes to mind). There are, in fact, discussions about limiting or redirecting visitor flows.
    Europe
    European banks: Operating struggles and some external headwindsoverlay
    January 15, 2019
    Talking Point
    Banks in Europe face a more difficult business environment in 2019 than last year. While the macro environment is still decent, momentum is cooling markedly. In addition, prominent political risks loom dangerously. On the operating side, banks are treading water. Their limited cost savings are being fully absorbed by declining revenues, and balance sheets continue to shrink despite a moderate pickup in lending. Profitability and capital levels are both stagnating. Only in a benign economic and political scenario will banks be able to return to growth this year.
    European Parliament elections 2019: The next “battle for Europe”?overlay
    October 24, 2018
    EU Monitor
    Accelerated by the consequences of the financial/economic and migration crisis, the influence of anti-European, anti-migration movements with a populist playbook in the EU is growing. For the EU, the next crucial stocktaking of voters’ sentiment will be the 2019 elections for the European Parliament on 23-26 May. The European political landscape and with it the composition of national parliaments in the EU member states has changed over the last five years and in some countries substantially so. These shifts can be expected to be reflected in the next European Parliament as well, and – as already the case in the Council – impact European policymaking.
    European banks: Shrinkage aboundsoverlay
    October 23, 2018
    Talking Point
    The European banking industry remains in restructuring mode. Most institutions are focused on increasing profitability and returns to shareholders. In contrast to previous periods of rising net income, the key this time is exiting less attractive parts of their business rather than expanding across the board. Hence, most P&amp;L and balance sheet components have declined year-over-year, with one major exception: profits. Capital levels have suffered from new, more conservative accounting rules on loan loss provisions.<br/>
    Germany
    Berlin: No longer “poor, but sexy“overlay
    January 16, 2019
    Talking Point
    Berlin found it difficult to adapt to the market economy after Germany’s re-unification. Both parts of the divided city, the eastern and the western, had to cope with fundamental changes – the eastern for obvious reasons, the western because it had benefited from generous subsidies until then. Berlin has therefore been lagging behind the rest of western Germany for decades. By now, however, it is not only catching up with western German metropolitan areas, but even beginning to overtake them. Employment growth in cutting-edge industries suggests that Berlin is truly becoming an innovation hub. And this development serves as an excellent basis for the residential market. While we mainly focus on developments in 2018 in this article, the house price trends are likely to remain in place for some time to come.
    Cash, electronic or online: How do Germans pay?overlay
    December 20, 2018
    Germany Monitor
    Germans are known as heavy cash users. In 2017, they paid cash for most of their purchase transactions. If they do not use cash, they prefer to pay by direct debit or card. Credit transfers and e-money payments are used less often. Germans initiated almost one fifth of cashless payments via the internet. Mobile payments were rarely used but this will likely change given a number of new mobile payment services came on the market in 2018. In Q3, German households took out an impressive EUR 16 bn in net new loans, the highest quarterly figure since the introduction of the euro. Of this, EUR 13 bn came from mortgages, while consumer lending lost some pace. Deposit inflows were buoyant for a Q3 and German households increased their savings rate to 10.7%.
    Card fraud in Germany: Few incidents, but high costsoverlay
    December 19, 2018
    Talking Point
    Christmas is only a few days away, and everyone is rushing to buy presents for family and friends. The tills are ringing and the card terminals are buzzing. But how safe is it to pay by card?
    Thematic
    FX Cookbook: A Recipe for Systematic Investing in Currency Marketsoverlay
    January 16, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Deutsche Bank Research launches the twentieth edition of the Quantcraft series, a one of a kind deep dive into new trading and analytical models across different asset classes. It helps clients understand structural drivers of market returns and how to systematically extract value from them. The latest report focusses on foreign exchange. Not only does it assess the sensitivity of global currency returns to pertinent drivers including sentiment, valuations, monetary policy and interest rate differentials, but it also guides the investor on how to use those drivers to make economically rewarding decisions. Our research targets all investors involved in foreign exchange, from the corporate treasurer seeking to efficiently manage currency risk to the institutional investor building absolute return strategies.
    Contagion: Italy and the role of fiscal similarityoverlay
    November 15, 2018
    Thematic Research
    Tensions in financial markets have increased significantly since the populist/Eurosceptic Five Star/League in Italy took power in May and presented a budget in violation of EU rules. In an unprecedented move, the European Commission sent Rome back to the drawing board. Italy has now provided the Commission with its latest fiscal plan – which is not much different from the old plan.
    Cyclical vs structural: observing the unobservableoverlay
    October 31, 2018
    Thematic Research
    The workhorse framework of macroeconomics and monetary policy relies on the build-up of inflationary pressures across the cycle as the economy tightens, and firms have no choice but to raise wages, which ultimately lifts consumer prices. Within that narrative, the estimation of slack in the economy – the output gap – is crucial to monetary policy authorities. A positive output gap means that the economy is away from its long-term steady-state equilibrium, and unsustainable cost pressures are building up. Currently, the OECD / IMF / European Commission estimate of the output gap in the euro-area is slightly positive and reaching close to 1% by the end of next year.
    The House View
    Outlook for 2019: Growth to plateau, but not collapseoverlay
    December 20, 2018
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's outlook for 2019 . Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, Italy, trade war etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    US keeping solid global growth aliveoverlay
    November 15, 2018
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (US election, Brexit, Italy, etc.) and major risks in the rest of 2018. Find also our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes.
    Markets after the recent sell-offoverlay
    October 16, 2018
    The House View - Snapshot
    This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key ongoing/upcoming political developments (Brexit, Italy, US mid-term, etc.) and major risks in the rest of 2018. Find also our views on US macro and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks.
    Konzept
    Politics, populism and poweroverlay
    January 17, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events.
    Big data shakes up ESG investingoverlay
    October 4, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Investors have long attempted to incorporate ESG information into their stockpicking decisions, however, ESG funds have underperformed the market. This issue shows how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are finally giving investors the upper hand. Big data catches out ‘greenwashing’ and provides forward-looking market signals that outperform the market. This is a boon for investors who want to determine how ESG issues affect the fair value of stocks.
    Automation – not a job killeroverlay
    June 6, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    About 250 years on from the first industrial revolution, we appear to be on the brink of a new age of automation, one dominated by complex robots and artificial intelligence. In this issue, we examine the impact of the next generation of automation on workers, industry, and society at large. Evidence from history, economics, and our industry analysts suggest that robots are more likely to complement us than replace us.
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