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    Global
    Prosperous countries – high CO₂-emissionsoverlay
    Prosperous countries – high CO₂-emissions
    January 27, 2020
    Chart in Focus
    A country’s prosperity is still closely linked to its energy consumption. As 80% of the global energy consumed is based on fossil fuels, high prosperity (measured as GDP per capita) tends to imply high per-capita CO₂ emissions. France is the G20 country which is closest to the goal of being quite prosperous on the one hand and keeping its per-capita carbon emissions relatively low on the other. Nevertheless, France is far from being a climate-neutral economy (which is the political goal).
    2020 Outlook – Gaining Speedoverlay
    2020 Outlook – Gaining Speed
    January 16, 2020
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views
    Back on trackoverlay
    Back on track
    December 2, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views.
    Europe
    EU budget 2021-2027: Europe's future sacrificed to the status quo?overlay
    EU budget 2021-2027: Europe's future sacrificed to the status quo?
    February 25, 2020
    Talking Point
    Last week's special Council meeting on the next EU budget 2021-2027 ended without an agreement. When EU leaders left Brussels on Friday after close to 30 hours of negotiations, there was no timeline set for further talks. In our view, it would have been a surprise if the meeting had led to a big breakthrough, given the traditionally contested nature of negotiations between net contributors and recipients of the seven-year budget. This time, the situation is much more complicated, as Brexit leaves a sizeable gap of around EUR 60-75bn in the ~EUR 1tr budget. Still, despite the meticulous preparations of Council President Charles Michel, including a marathon of bilateral meetings with EU leaders ahead of the summit and a new compromise budget proposal, not even a preliminary agreement regarding the approximate size of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) could be reached.<br/>
    The ECB’s Strategic Review in 2020 may (slightly) change the inflation targetoverlay
    The ECB’s Strategic Review in 2020 may (slightly) change the inflation target
    January 21, 2020
    Chart in Focus
    The global map shows the inflation targets of developed and emerging markets. In emerging economies central banks tend to have higher inflation targets than the central banks in their developed counterparts. The difference generally arises from their stronger inflation rates partly due to lower productivity in tradeable goods production in emerging markets. This key feature is likely to persist as the catch-up process of many emerging markets will continue for some time.
    Tough year over, tough year ahead for European banksoverlay
    Tough year over, tough year ahead for European banks
    December 19, 2019
    Talking Point
    European banks continue to strive to not fall further behind. Revenues and costs in the first three quarters of 2019 were flat compared to their levels a year ago. Remarkably, interest income rose despite even lower interest rates. Loan loss provisions edged up from record lows. Net profits fell moderately but remained solid. Balance sheet growth was the strongest in years as banks fight to hold their ground against an array of new competitors. Along with the struggle to improve revenues, 2020 may be shaped by Basel IV implementation, continuing geopolitical risk and a fragile macroeconomy.
    Germany
    Berlin housing market: Rent cap may decouple real estate cycle from economic supercycle for a number of yearsoverlay
    Berlin housing market: Rent cap may decouple real estate cycle from economic supercycle for a number of years
    February 27, 2020
    Germany Monitor
    The key message: If the Berlin rent cap is constitutional, the situation for investors will change dramatically. The realignment of housing policy in Berlin and the rent cap represent a radical attempt to sideline market-based mechanisms. We believe the economic supercycle in Berlin will continue undiminished and Berlin remains an attractive market for long-term oriented investors. The negative effects of the rent cap on the housing market are likely to emerge clearly in the long run.
    German robo-advisors: March of the machines driving passive investmentsoverlay
    German robo-advisors: March of the machines driving passive investments
    February 24, 2020
    Germany Monitor Household finance
    German retail clients have shown relatively little interest in passive investment alternatives, compared to traditional mutual funds. Robo-advisors, which primarily invest in ETFs, have seen the number of their clients and AuM grow. German robo-advisors could manage about EUR 25-35 bn in 2025, up from EUR 4 bn today. Their pioneer clients are largely male, middle-aged and high-income. They value full control and autonomy in their financial decisions and deal with financial matters mostly online. Still, they visit bank branches quite frequently.
    Still highly fragileoverlay
    Still highly fragile
    February 10, 2020
    Focus Germany
    After very weak December data a small drop in Q4 GDP seems likely. Looking forward, the coronavirus provides a substantial risk for the expected global recovery, as hopes were pinned on an improvement of the Chinese economy. We assume that the corona outbreak will shave off 0.2pp of Germany's Q1 GDP, making a technical recession quite probable during the winter half.
    Thematic
    The Luxury goods market is evolving with a push towards sustainabilityoverlay
    The Luxury goods market is evolving with a push towards sustainability
    March 3, 2020
    Thematic Research
    Growth in luxury has been primarily driven by brand heat and newness, however millennials and Gen Z are increasingly demanding more quality and sustainability. In a recent Deutsche Bank Research consumer survey on what criteria are important for luxury spending and how they have changed over time: sustainability saw the third largest increase to importance when purchasing luxury.
    Impact of Covid-19 on the global economy: Updateoverlay
    Impact of Covid-19 on the global economy: Update
    March 2, 2020
    Thematic Research
    Covid-19 is quickly becoming a global pandemic. Outbreaks in Italy, Korea, and Iran appear to be spreading rapidly, with more than 60 countries having been directly affected and cases being reported in New York City and many other key cities around the world.
    COVID-19: How policy can buffer the virus shockoverlay
    COVID-19: How policy can buffer the virus shock
    February 28, 2020
    Thematic Research
    In addition to absorbing a virus shock through the China export demand and supply chain channels, Europe now has to absorb a domestic outbreak. Voluntary steps to prevent the spread of the coronavirus (“social distancing”) as well as official containment measures are likely to disrupt economic activity. We expect disruption beyond northern Italy, an area which accounts for about 5% of euro area GDP. A temporary economic shock similar in scale to Hong Kong’s when SARS struck in 2003 would only need to occur in 10% of the euro area for area-wide GDP to stagnate in H1 and take the zone to the verge of technical recession. It is a highly fluid situation, but this might be a best case outcome.
    Corporate Bank Research
    The Future of Payments - Part III. Digital Currencies: the Ultimate Hard Power Tooloverlay
    The Future of Payments - Part III. Digital Currencies: the Ultimate Hard Power Tool
    January 27, 2020
    Corporate Bank Research
    This piece is the third in a series of three pieces that examines the past, present, and future of the payments industry. We analyse the unexpected results of our proprietary survey of 3,600 customers across the US, UK, China, Germany, France and Italy and forecast trends in cash, online, mobile, crypto, and blockchain. The implications for customers and business are important; the potential macro and geopolitical consequences are profound.
    The Future of Payments - Part II. Moving to Digital Wallets and the Extinction of Plastic Cardsoverlay
    The Future of Payments - Part II. Moving to Digital Wallets and the Extinction of Plastic Cards
    January 23, 2020
    Corporate Bank Research
    This piece is the second in a series of three pieces that examines the past, present, and future of the payments industry. We analyse the unexpected results of our proprietary survey of 3,600 customers across the US, UK, China, Germany, France and Italy and forecast trends in cash, online, mobile, crypto, and blockchain. The implications for customers and business are important; the potential macro and geopolitical consequences are profound.
    The Future of Payments - Part I. Cash: the Dinosaur Will Survive ... For Nowoverlay
    The Future of Payments - Part I. Cash: the Dinosaur Will Survive ... For Now
    January 21, 2020
    Corporate Bank Research
    When people discuss the future of payments they tend to predict the end of cash. Our view is different. Not only do we think cash will be around for a long time, we see the transition to digital payments as having the potential to do no less than rebalance global economic power.
    Konzept
    Imagine 2030overlay
    Imagine 2030
    December 4, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many ‘decade ahead’ predictions prove unreliable. And we admit this special edition of Konzept cannot be a perfect crystal ball. Regardless, we present 24 contrarian ideas for how the 2020s may evolve because we believe it is best to be prepared for the unexpected themes that may arise over the coming decade. After all, if the 2010s have taught us anything it is that the trends of the prior decade are no guide for the decade to come.
    How 5G will change your lifeoverlay
    How 5G will change your life
    July 10, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    The global 5G rollout has just begun, but behind the hype lies uncertainty and the potential for unintended consequences. This edition of Konzept seeks to answer many unresolved questions. First and foremost, we explain the tangible ways in which 5G will affect you, including the smartphone impact, the future of television, predictive maintenance, autonomous cars, smart cities and more. We also examine the geo-political disagreements, emerging market economics, and argue that the financial cost of distraction is greater than expected.
    Politics, populism and poweroverlay
    Politics, populism and power
    January 17, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events.
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