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April 2, 2020
Global new cases have risen by over 75,000 or by 9.0 per cent over the last 24 hours to 935,957, with the one millionth case likely to be recorded later today or early Friday morning. As a whole, new case growth worldwide has stayed below ten per cent for the fourth day in a row. We continue to see improvements in the most affected regions on the back of containment and distancing measures. Of the top ten countries by overall case count, only the US and UK have double digit growth rates now. [more]
April 1, 2020
Global new cases have risen by over 70,000 or by 9.3 per cent over the last 24 hours to 858,669 cases overall. As a whole, the new case growth worldwide has now remained under ten per cent for three days in a row. The most adversely affected regions of the world over the last three weeks continue to see promising signs that containment strategies are working. [more]
March 31, 2020
Global new cases have increased by 8.8 per cent over the last 24 hours, with overall cases now over 785,000, but we continue to see significant slowing across the most heavily impacted regions around the world. Today was the second day in a row that global new case growth was under 10 per cent after being well above for most of the last two weeks. [more]
March 30, 2020
Global cases have risen to over 700,000, with the US (over 142,000 cases) driving the bulk of the recent growth rate. However, over the last 24 hours the global growth rate has dipped below 10 per cent after trending in a low double digit range for the past ten days. The peak of 14 per cent occurred last Sunday (March 22). Will that be the high watermark? [more]
March 24, 2020
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We identify the impact of negative rates on household portfolios in Germany. Real returns on cash and deposits stood at -1.2% in Q1 2019. Due to that, Germans lost around EUR 150 in real terms in 2019 per person, compared to the 1991-2014 average. The aggregate loss including claims on insurance for a representative household was roughly EUR 540 per year. The richest 10% of Germans hold 60% of the financial wealth and probably have significantly higher losses. In 2019, net lending to private households in Germany reached a new record of EUR 59.5 bn (+4.8% yoy). Mortgages saw a record increase of EUR 53 bn (5.3% yoy). Deposits rose by EUR 41.1 bn in the seasonally strong final quarter. In 2020, mortgage growth is likely to slump, even stagnate. The corona virus pandemic will probably lead to a reduction in household income and possibly to bottlenecks in the issuance of building permits. [more]
March 24, 2020
The world economy has, to all intents and purposes, ground to a halt with widespread social distancing and lock-down measures resulting in the closure of restaurants, retail, travel, sporting events and many other business. The impact on local and global growth is unlike any other period in the past as governments come up with economic rescue packages underwritten by central bank easing. [more]
March 19, 2020
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Fighting the corona crisis: Whatever it takes. The government’s support measures so far include greater access for firms to short-time allowance, tax moratorium and the potential provision of state guarantees of up to EUR 460 bn. We expect the government to come up with additional fiscal stimulus measures soon. The budget balance could post a deficit of 3.5% of GDP in 2020/21. (Also in this issue: KfW programmes to support corporate Germany – A primer. Corporate lending in a corona recession: Development banks as an anchor of stability?) [more]
March 18, 2020
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Corona recession – depth probably close to 2009 slump. Within days lock-down measures and (temporary) factory closures have reached a level that suggests a far bigger H1 contraction than previously thought. In our new baseline scenario we expect GDP to decline between 4% and 5% in 2020, notwithstanding a recovery in H2, as – in contrast to 2009 – the service sector will be hard hit, too. (Also in this issue: the German government's support measures, labour market, industrial recession, auto industry, corporate lending, the view from Berlin) [more]
March 18, 2020
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The competition for global AI leadership is speeding up. But it already seems to be a two-horse race between the US and China. Europe faces an imminent risk of falling far behind if the EU and its members do not react rapidly and boldly. This could have broad implications for Europe's competitiveness, future wealth and political stability. The Commission's recently published White Paper on AI and its communication on a European strategy for data are crucial steps to formalise the debate on addressing the AI challenge in Europe. While the EU's strategy goes in the right direction, several points need to be clarified, in particular regarding the investment gap towards the US and China, finding the right balance between regulation and competitiveness of the EU's AI industry, and data access for AI research. [more]
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