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    2020 Outlook – Gaining Speedoverlay
    January 16, 2020
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views
    Back on trackoverlay
    December 2, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views.
    Future location of FX trades hinges on central clearingoverlay
    November 20, 2019
    Talking Point
    Trading volumes in foreign exchange instruments have increased significantly across the board in 2019 compared to the last global FX survey three years ago. Surprisingly, the pivotal role of London as the main trading location was reconfirmed, despite fears around the impact of Brexit. Yet a general move to central clearing might challenge this after the UK leaves the EU.
    Europe
    The ECB’s Strategic Review in 2020 may (slightly) change the inflation targetoverlay
    January 21, 2020
    Chart in Focus
    The global map shows the inflation targets of developed and emerging markets. In emerging economies central banks tend to have higher inflation targets than the central banks in their developed counterparts. The difference generally arises from their stronger inflation rates partly due to lower productivity in tradeable goods production in emerging markets. This key feature is likely to persist as the catch-up process of many emerging markets will continue for some time.
    Tough year over, tough year ahead for European banksoverlay
    December 19, 2019
    Talking Point
    European banks continue to strive to not fall further behind. Revenues and costs in the first three quarters of 2019 were flat compared to their levels a year ago. Remarkably, interest income rose despite even lower interest rates. Loan loss provisions edged up from record lows. Net profits fell moderately but remained solid. Balance sheet growth was the strongest in years as banks fight to hold their ground against an array of new competitors. Along with the struggle to improve revenues, 2020 may be shaped by Basel IV implementation, continuing geopolitical risk and a fragile macroeconomy.
    The European Green Deal: It all sounds very nice, but…overlay
    December 17, 2019
    Talking Point
    With their „European Green Deal“, the European Commission expressed an admirable ambition to be climate-neutral by 2050. Are such ambitious long-term goals good for the credibility of European climate protection policies? Especially when they include only the vaguest notions of how to get there, and when the measures for more efficient climate protection that can be implemented in the short-to-medium term are not making sufficient progress? I don’t think so.
    Germany
    E-mobility: Remaining a niche phenomenon for now – at least without subsidiesoverlay
    January 9, 2020
    Germany Monitor
    The shift towards alternative propulsion technologies, such as e-mobility, is currently the biggest challenge for the global auto industry. So far, this structural change is driven mainly by government regulation and not so much by market forces. At the moment, electric vehicles only have significant market shares if they are heavily subsidised. While e-cars can help to reduce carbon emissions in the EU, the favourable climate effect will be smaller than many supporters of electric mobility expect. A higher market share of e-cars will lead to manageable job losses in the German auto industry; however, local factors are key for value added.
    Outlook 2020: Fragile – handle with careoverlay
    December 20, 2019
    Focus Germany
    In 2019 we've been asked lots of questions about the German economy, politics – fiscal policy and the black zero, in particular – and, more fundamentally, about Germany’s future given the risk of a more permanent reversal of globalisation, the increased environmental focus, the challenges for the German car industry and the widespread notion that Germany might miss the boat on the big data economy and other technological trends. This is why we are also discussing these issues in this report. For 2020 we anticipate a gradual recovery in global trade, which should enable a piecemeal recovery in exports and help end the industrial recession. We expect equipment spending to decline in 2020. On the other hand, the domestic growth pillars – private and government consumption as well as construction – should continue to expand at a healthy clip. But annual GDP growth of 1% forecast for 2020 after 0.5% in 2019 is clearly underwhelming, especially since the acceleration versus 2019 is almost exclusively the result of an unusually high number of working days in 2020.
    ETFs – a niche product for private investors (for now)overlay
    December 18, 2019
    Germany Monitor Household finance
    ETFs have gained in popularity among private investors who have expanded their ETF investment multiple times in recent years to approximately EUR 35 bn. Nonetheless, ETFs remain a niche product for private investors considering that their total mutual fund assets amount to EUR 622 bn. ETFs have been introduced as passive investment vehicles, but active ETF management is on the rise. The sustained low-interest rate environment could allow ETFs to tap into new client segments. In Q3, loans to German households were up by a record EUR 17.9 bn qoq, driven by a record surge of EUR 16.3 bn in mortgages. Deposits grew by EUR 13.6 bn – the smallest increase in seven quarters. The fact that some banks impose negative rates on deposits seems to create negative sentiment among German savers.
    Thematic
    Davos 2020: We need to talk about (sustainable) growth...overlay
    January 13, 2020
    Thematic Research
    Ahead of the World Economic Forum’s meeting in Davos, this piece summarises the topics we expect to address in conversations with leaders of global organisations, politicians, entrepreneurs, investors, and other experts on the subject of growth and the increasing awareness of its side effects.
    Monthly Chart Book: December Economic Chart Book (Snapshot)overlay
    December 16, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Key highlights from Torsten Slok’s, Chief Economist, Monthly Chart Book detailing macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.
    Green shoots or false down?overlay
    December 3, 2019
    Thematic Research
    The past year and a half has seen an impressive slide in the global economy. Global GDP growth is expected to have ebbed to its lowest rate since the great recession this year, with some regions nearing recession and others increasingly fearing it. The primary factor is the strongly depressing effect on global trade and investment that has resulted from sharp increases in economic policy uncertainty associated with both trade policy conflicts and Brexit.
    Corporate Bank Research
    The Future of Payments - Part II. Moving to Digital Wallets and the Extinction of Plastic Cardsoverlay
    January 23, 2020
    Corporate Bank Research
    This piece is the second in a series of three pieces that examines the past, present, and future of the payments industry. We analyse the unexpected results of our proprietary survey of 3,600 customers across the US, UK, China, Germany, France and Italy and forecast trends in cash, online, mobile, crypto, and blockchain. The implications for customers and business are important; the potential macro and geopolitical consequences are profound.
    The Future of Payments - Part I. Cash: the Dinosaur Will Survive ... For Nowoverlay
    January 21, 2020
    Corporate Bank Research
    When people discuss the future of payments they tend to predict the end of cash. Our view is different. Not only do we think cash will be around for a long time, we see the transition to digital payments as having the potential to do no less than rebalance global economic power.
    2020: An inflection point in global corporate tax?overlay
    November 14, 2019
    Corporate Bank Research
    Just as the world has a debt problem, it also has a corporate tax problem. State finances are becoming increasingly precarious and yet while companies are in great shape, the tax rates they pay have steadily fallen over the last few decades.
    Konzept
    Imagine 2030overlay
    December 4, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many ‘decade ahead’ predictions prove unreliable. And we admit this special edition of Konzept cannot be a perfect crystal ball. Regardless, we present 24 contrarian ideas for how the 2020s may evolve because we believe it is best to be prepared for the unexpected themes that may arise over the coming decade. After all, if the 2010s have taught us anything it is that the trends of the prior decade are no guide for the decade to come.
    How 5G will change your lifeoverlay
    July 10, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    The global 5G rollout has just begun, but behind the hype lies uncertainty and the potential for unintended consequences. This edition of Konzept seeks to answer many unresolved questions. First and foremost, we explain the tangible ways in which 5G will affect you, including the smartphone impact, the future of television, predictive maintenance, autonomous cars, smart cities and more. We also examine the geo-political disagreements, emerging market economics, and argue that the financial cost of distraction is greater than expected.
    Politics, populism and poweroverlay
    January 17, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events.
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