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    Cushioning downside risksoverlay
    September 11, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and our expectations for central bank responses. We also outline key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, etc.), major risks in 2019, and update our cross asset market views.
    Global monetary medicine on the wayoverlay
    July 23, 2019
    The House View - Snapshot
    Read on for our discussion of the recent shift in central bank policy and the implications for the global economy. We also outline key recent/upcoming political developments (new European leadership, Brexit, trade war, etc.), major risks in 2019, and update our cross asset market views.
    Libra – a global challenger in payments and for central banks?overlay
    July 22, 2019
    EU Monitor
    Facebook’s Libra project aims to establish both a private digital currency backed by a basket of hard currencies and a global payment network. It is thus challenging many established players in the financial system, including central banks, credit institutions and payment providers. Facebook can integrate Libra services into its digital platforms and benefit from strong network effects. In Europe, Libra would enter a competitive but fragmented digital payments market. As a currency, Libra will carry a foreign exchange risk for Europeans. But if the ECB drove interest rates deeply below zero, Libra could offer an easy digital way out. The flipside, though, would be a loss of sovereignty for Europe.
    Europe
    Digital politics: AI, big data and the future of democracyoverlay
    August 22, 2019
    EU Monitor
    The digital transformation has enriched societal discourse through new forms of multilateral communication, but it has also amplified the spread of misinformation, echo chambers and propaganda, offering authoritarian states new means of surveillance and control. How democracies approach this challenge will be a key factor in their performance, given intensifying competition among political systems.
    Artificial intelligence in banking: A lever for profitability with limited implementation to dateoverlay
    June 4, 2019
    EU Monitor
    Artificial intelligence (AI) is a significant step forward in the digitalisation and transformation of modern businesses. Investors are lining up to be part of the imminent change. AI attracted USD 24 bn in investments globally in 2018, a twelvefold increase since 2013. Within Europe, Germany, France and the UK are the frontrunners in experimentation and in the implementation of AI. Similar to earlier examples of information technology (IT) implementation in financial services, AI promises great efficiency gains and potential revenue increases and its potential contribution to bank profitability should not be underestimated.
    Still on a diet: European banks continue to retreatoverlay
    May 23, 2019
    Talking Point
    Shrinkage – and no end in sight: in the first quarter of the year, the European banks once more saw revenues and costs alike decline compared to 12 months ago (-2% each). Non-interest income was particularly weak. As a result, profitability dipped, with loan loss provisions also rising, albeit from very low levels. Banks tried to make up for the revenue loss by taking more risk and expanding their balance sheets. Total assets and risk-weighted assets both increased by 4%. Consequently, the average CET1 capital ratio fell 0.4 pp yet remained in comfortable territory.
    Germany
    Myths around the transport turnaround: The promise of clean skiesoverlay
    September 20, 2019
    Talking Point
    So far, Germany’s efforts to arrive at a more sustainable energy profile (the ‘Energiewende’) have focused on the electricity sector. However, attention is increasingly shifting towards the transport sector and its steadily rising carbon emissions. Decades-old demands, such as replacing road by railway transport, are being repeat-ed once again, even though they have been found impossible to realise. And some new concepts are being presented, such as micro e-mobility. However, their contributions to transport reform are negligible at best; they may even prove counterproductive. Ultimately, the solution is simple, if uncomfortable: long-term climate protection goals (i.e. virtual carbon neutrality) can only be reached by a considerable decline in traffic, unless technology makes significant progress. Policymakers will find it difficult to convey this message, seeing that individual mobility is one of the key concepts of a liberal society.
    Phasing out lignite: Numerous challenges along the wayoverlay
    September 17, 2019
    Talking Point
    As our planet heats up, the public debate has increasingly focused on the use of fossil fuels in the last few years, in particular coal. There is only one major exception, namely the US, whose current administration doubts that human activities are behind the climate change. German hard coal had a share of only 6% in total coal consumption in 2018. 99.9% of the lignite consumed were mined in Germany itself, namely in the Rhineland, in Lusatia and in the Central German district. A number of market observers have been skeptical about or even downright against phasing out lignite mining, mainly due to the negative impact on employment. This is probably the main reason why policymakers have decided to provide up to EUR 40 bn to support/subsidise the exit from lignite production by 2038. <br/>
    Who still visits a bank branch in Germany?overlay
    August 30, 2019
    Germany Monitor Household finance
    The number of bank branches in Germany has declined sharply, to 28,000 in 2018 from around 40,000 in 2007. With 33 bank branches per 100,000 inhabitants, branch density in Germany is still relatively high. Almost 70% of Germans visit a branch at least once per month. Clients who have a loan or a private pension plan or are a FinTech user are more likely to visit a bank branch, in contrast to Millennials and less wealthy Germans. In Q2, loans to German households were up by a record EUR 16.9 bn qoq and 4.4% yoy. Mortgages surged by EUR 13.2 bn and consumer loans grew dynamically by EUR 2.9 bn, too. Deposits again rose strongly by EUR 34.4 bn.
    Thematic
    Monthly Chart Book: September Economic Chart Book (Snapshot)overlay
    September 10, 2019
    Thematic Research
    Key highlights from Torsten Slok’s, Chief Economist, Monthly Chart Book detailing macro and economic drivers impacting markets today.
    Brexit update: constitutional warfareoverlay
    September 2, 2019
    Thematic Research
    The government will hold a Queen's Speech - an outline of the government's legislative agenda. The votes on the Queen's Speech will be held on the 21st and 22nd October, with amendments possible only on these days. Under this schedule, the UK Parliament has just under a week in early September followed by just over a week in late October to prevent a no deal outcome. In practical terms, this schedule limits the ability of MPs to take a legislative route to block a no deal Brexit.
    What are you having for dinner?overlay
    July 4, 2019
    Thematic Research
    From click &amp; collect to at-home delivery to meal kits to other nascent options like autonomous vehicles, there’s an explosion of more convenient ways by which your supermarket is trying to sell you bananas.
    Corporate Bank Research
    Climate change and corporates: Past the tipping point with customers and stockmarketsoverlay
    September 18, 2019
    Corporate Bank Research
    Companies drag their heels on climate change because many managers believe that for the planet to win, profits must fall. This report argues the opposite using evidence from both the stockmarket and our own primary research into the unexpected shift in customer purchase habits over the last 12 months.
    Climate change and corporates: Past the tipping point with customers and stockmarketsoverlay
    September 18, 2019
    Corporate Bank Research
    Companies drag their heels on climate change because many managers believe that for the planet to win, profits must fall. This report argues the opposite using evidence from both the stockmarket and our own primary research into the unexpected shift in customer purchase habits over the last 12 months.
    Konzept
    How 5G will change your lifeoverlay
    July 10, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    The global 5G rollout has just begun, but behind the hype lies uncertainty and the potential for unintended consequences. This edition of Konzept seeks to answer many unresolved questions. First and foremost, we explain the tangible ways in which 5G will affect you, including the smartphone impact, the future of television, predictive maintenance, autonomous cars, smart cities and more. We also examine the geo-political disagreements, emerging market economics, and argue that the financial cost of distraction is greater than expected.
    Politics, populism and poweroverlay
    January 17, 2019
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events.
    Big data shakes up ESG investingoverlay
    October 4, 2018
    Konzept (Engl.)
    Investors have long attempted to incorporate ESG information into their stockpicking decisions, however, ESG funds have underperformed the market. This issue shows how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are finally giving investors the upper hand. Big data catches out ‘greenwashing’ and provides forward-looking market signals that outperform the market. This is a boon for investors who want to determine how ESG issues affect the fair value of stocks.
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