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CDU’s Covid-19 election bonus – from hero to zero

March 31, 2021

CDU’s Covid-19 election bonus – from hero to zero

Region:
Germany
Focus Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Germany's super election year 2021
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Marion Mühlberger
PDF 295k
Merkel’s Conservatives currently face major problems. Approval rates are in free fall as trust in the government’s crisis management has eroded. The CDU/CSU is polling at pre-crisis levels of below 30% fuelling speculation that not only Merkel but the Conservatives in total might not be part of the next government. The announcement of their chancellor candidate is unlikely to turn the tide for the Conservatives. A bold election manifesto on how to bring Germany forward after the deficiencies revealed by the crisis combined with convincing core personal are needed. Coalition options are back in focus with the Greens being the kingmakers in all scenarios. The political talk of the day is a Green-led traffic light coalition also at the federal level. Still, a conservative-green government remains our baseline scenario, but it is not a foregone conclusion anymore. [more]

More documents contained in "Focus Germany"

100 (25-36)
    

Outlook 2020: Fragile – handle with care

December 20, 2019
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Kevin Koerner, Marc Schattenberg, Sebastian Becker, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
25
In 2019 we've been asked lots of questions about the German economy, politics – fiscal policy and the black zero, in particular – and, more fundamentally, about Germany’s future given the risk of a more permanent reversal of globalisation, the increased environmental focus, the challenges for the German car industry and the widespread notion that Germany might miss the boat on the big data economy and other technological trends. [more]

Economic weakness, political turbulence

November 4, 2019
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Kevin Koerner, Marc Schattenberg, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
26
German exports and global trade have been moving in lockstep recently and more or less grinded to a halt in yoy terms. We found that the Bundesbank’s leading indicator for global industrial production leads German exports by 4 to 5 months. [more]

Only a technical recession? It is all about risks!

August 19, 2019
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Real estate, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Dieter Bräuninger, Eric Heymann, Jan Schildbach, Jochen Moebert, Josef Auer, Kevin Koerner, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
28
We see Germany in a technical recession, as we expect another ¼% GDP drop in Q3. Our forecast for 2019 is now 0.3%. Given no indication for a rebound we lowered our 2020 forecast to 0.7%. [more]

A looming black-green coalition: Painful compromises needed

July 8, 2019
Region:
Germany
Topic:
Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics, Sectors and resources
Analyst:
Barbara Boettcher, Dieter Bräuninger, Eric Heymann, Jochen Moebert, Marc Schattenberg, Stefan Schneider
Focus Germany
29
In case of a snap election in Germany, a CDU/CSU-Greens coalition could be an option. Given both camps' radically different political positions in many areas, such a coalition would require both to make significant compromises. [more]
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