Outlook for the German residential property market 2021 and beyond: House price cycle could end in 2024

March 24, 2021

Outlook for the German residential property market 2021 and beyond: House price cycle could end in 2024

Region:

Topic:

Analyst:

Our analysis suggests that the nationwide price cycle will come to an end this decade. Despite all the uncertainty, we believe the cycle is likely to end in 2024. The fundamental supply shortage should ease off in the coming years. The lower level of immigration during the pandemic is also a contributing factor. If the cycle does in fact end in 2024, we expect nominal house prices to decline for a short period of time based on comparable historical data. If house prices rise again at the historical average of approximately 2.5% per year following the correction phase, we could see an increase of around 24% over the decade, despite the interim price dip. This outlook also includes a look at the eleven German metropolitan regions. [more]

Deutsche Fassung ➜

Housing policy in Germany Changing direction

August 31, 2017

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Bundestag elections 2017, Economic and european policy, Real estate

Analyst:

Jochen Moebert

Germany Monitor

During the past four years, prices for owner-occupied homes have risen by c. 30% and rents by 15% across Germany. So far, the government’s housing policy has hampered rather than promoted residential construction. [more]

State or private, redistribution or growth Who will be the winners according to the parties' tax proposals?

August 28, 2017

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Bundestag elections 2017, Economic and european policy

Analyst:

Barbara Boettcher, Dieter Bräuninger

Germany Monitor

Since 2010, the German government’s tax revenues have gone up by one third to EUR 706 bn. On the face of it, Germany is a low-tax country, with a tax-to-GDP rate of 22.9%. [more]

Time to fully recognise the potential of digital start-ups

August 22, 2017

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Bundestag elections 2017, Digital, Economic and european policy

Analyst:

Orçun Kaya

Germany Monitor

In Germany, the number of successful technology start-ups with a novel product is lagging behind in an international context. [more]

German defence policy: Towards a more integrated security framework

August 8, 2017

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Bundestag elections 2017, Economic and european policy, Sectors and resources

Analyst:

Kevin Koerner

Germany Monitor

Defence policy and defence expenditures have moved into the light of public attention ahead of September parliamentary elections, fuelled by US criticism of Europe’s NATO spending, the experience of the refugee crisis but also regained momentum for European integration. [more]

Packed European agenda for the next government: Numerous challenges, no (easy) answers

August 3, 2017

Region:

Europe

Topic:

Brexit, Bundestag elections 2017, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Barbara Boettcher, Kevin Koerner

Germany Monitor

The benign economic and public environment allows to fundamentally address shortcomings of the E(M)U. [more]

Germany’s fiscal situation: Full employment and zero interest rates result in budget surpluses – but demographic development might become a problem!

July 19, 2017

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Bundestag elections 2017, Economic and european policy, Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Sebastian Becker

Germany Monitor

In an international comparison, Germany’s fiscal situation is very good – thanks to robust GDP growth and zero interest rates. [more]

Parties not focusing enough on sustainability

July 17, 2017

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Bundestag elections 2017, Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Dieter Bräuninger

Germany Monitor

The debate over welfare policy in Germany appears to be paradoxical. Albeit steadily rising social spending, some critics believe that there is a social imbalance. [more]

Slowing German trend growth does not seem to be a major issue in the electoral campaign

July 3, 2017

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Bundestag elections 2017, Macroeconomics

Analyst:

Marc Schattenberg

Germany Monitor

The developed industrial countries have experienced a steady decline in trend growth since the mid-70s – and Germany is no exception. The robust cyclical upswing is veiling this creeping erosion of growth. [more]

The digital car: More revenue, more competition, more cooperation

July 3, 2017

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Digital, Sectors and resources

Analyst:

Eric Heymann

Germany Monitor

The traditional automobile industry and companies that, in the past, had no involvement in the sector, are working hard to create software solutions, driver assistance systems and other technologies that will make networked, autonomous, traffic jam and accident-free driving possible. [more]

Uncertainty is slowing capital expenditure

January 25, 2017

Region:

Germany

Analyst:

Eric Heymann, Oliver Rakau

Germany Monitor

In view of the pronounced economic and (geo)political uncertainties and the
weak starting level, (private-sector) equipment investment in Germany is likely
to decrease in 2017 despite a respectable level of capacity utilisation. [more]

Outlook on the German housing market in 2017: Prices and rents in Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich

January 13, 2017

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Macroeconomics, Real estate

Analyst:

Jochen Moebert

Germany Monitor

Munich remains the most dynamic German city when it comes to property, with its fast-rising population and historically low vacancy rate likely to lead to further price increases for many years to come. [more]

Crumbs or pie – how much will Frankfurt's property market benefit from BREXIT?

November 28, 2016

Region:

Germany

Topic:

Banking and financial markets, Brexit, Economic and european policy, Real estate

Analyst:

Jochen Moebert

Germany Monitor

The question regarding the consequences of a Brexit for the EU, the United Kingdom and Germany is expected to remain unanswered for some time. The political uncertainties and exit scenarios range from a contentious separation to a second referendum. [more]

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