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Germany – Capex cycle unfazed by political uncertainty
We have lifted our GDP forecasts for 2017 and 2018 about half a point to 2.
We have lifted our GDP forecasts for 2017 and 2018 about half a point to 2.3%, as capex is boosted by an improved export outlook, which in turn is driven by the global capex cycle. The difficult formation of a new government – while not encouraging with regard to Germany’s longer-term challenges – should have limited impact on the short-term outlook. [more]
German exporters have had to deal with numerous challenges over the last few years. Exports to the UK, Russia and Turkey have been unusually volatile and trended downwards. Nevertheless, aggregate German exports rose by more than 3% p.a. [more]
In 2017, Germany ran a trade surplus of around EUR 50 bn with the US. Exports came to roughly EUR 111 bn, compared with imports of around EUR 61 bn. It was the second-largest surplus in German-US merchandise trade. [more]
Since the beginning of the year, both short-term and long-term government bond yields have risen considerably in the developed markets (i.e. the US, the euro area and the UK; Japan is an exception), even though they are still low. [more]
Germans who want to buy a new car tend to focus on three issues: the price, the degree of comfort and security aspects. That is the conclusion of authors of the latest Aral car buying trends study. [more]
In the current debate about the future of the EU, politicians as well as the media are warning of a tendency by member states to shift their focus back to their own national interests and of a subsequent loss of significance of the EU. [more]
The headline inflation rates, which have increased substantially in recent months, have rekindled the debate surrounding the ECB's bond-buying programme. German producer prices have also risen sharply in recent times. [more]
Brexit means that the EU is going to lose one of the largest contributors to its budget. The UK paid in a total of EUR 15.1 bn in the first two years of the current budget period 2014-2020, second only to Germany. [more]