When you access this link, you are leaving the Deutsche Bank website. The information provided on any websites accessed through this link has been produced by independent providers and Deutsche Bank does not endorse or accept any responsibility for information provided on any such sites. Any opinions or recommendations expressed on such other websites are solely those of the independent providers and are not the opinions or recommendations of Deutsche Bank. The existence of a link from this Deutsche Bank page to any other such websites does not constitute a recommendation or other approval by Deutsche Bank of such websites or any provider thereof. With the following buttons, you accept or reject the above-mentioned information.
In addition to absorbing a virus shock through the China export demand and supply chain channels, Europe now has to absorb a domestic outbreak.
In addition to absorbing a virus shock through the China export demand and supply chain channels, Europe now has to absorb a domestic outbreak. Voluntary steps to prevent the spread of the coronavirus (“social distancing”) as well as official containment measures are likely to disrupt economic activity. We expect disruption beyond northern Italy, an area which accounts for about 5% of euro area GDP. A temporary economic shock similar in scale to Hong Kong’s when SARS struck in 2003 would only need to occur in 10% of the euro area for area-wide GDP to stagnate in H1 and take the zone to the verge of technical recession. It is a highly fluid situation, but this might be a best case outcome. [more]
After shrugging off a historic plunge in April employment, market participants will likely need to digest further record-setting monthly declines in core CPI inflation as well as April retail sales and industrial production. [more]
It is now evident that the US economy is in the midst of the most severe contraction in the post-World War II era, one which could produce a record quarterly contraction in output in the second quarter and an unemployment rate above 17% in April. [more]
The US economy is experiencing unprecedented disruptions that have led to a sudden stop in activity. The result will be the most dramatic decline in GDP and sharpest rise in unemployment in the post-World War II period. [more]
There is no such thing as a free market anymore. All developed central banks have cut rates to zero and buying trillions of assets. Inflation is very low. A global liquidity trap may be in the making. [more]
We’ve witnessed an immense human tragedy as the covid-19 virus has spread around the globe. Amidst the awful numbers of people who have succumbed to the disease, we’re also now witnessing an incredibly painful economic downturn. [more]
The world economy has, to all intents and purposes, ground to a halt with widespread social distancing and lock-down measures resulting in the closure of restaurants, retail, travel, sporting events and many other business. [more]
We revisit the debt situation in Argentina and update our assessment on debt sustainability by projecting both debt stocks and FX debt repayment capacity. Argentina’s debt problem originates from fiscal dominance and lack of nominal anchor. [more]
The Phase One trade agreement between the US and China is more than a trade war truce and USD200 bn of purchases. It covers a broad range of topics from intellectual property (IP) protection to opening up China's market. [more]