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Emerging Markets Monthly: EM’s Inflection

May 10, 2018
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy in the Month Ahead: The source of the recent correction is benign: a repricing of US growth with the EU still poised to grow above potential. With few exceptions (such as Turkey and Argentina) EM inflation remains mostly near or below targets so that forex (FX) weakness is unlikely to trigger meaningful CB responses that could disrupt EM growth – which has yet to catch up with DM. However, USD strength poses a more binding and direct risk of tighter credit conditions for EM than US yields. Still, we would need to see EUR/USD closer to 1.05 for credit conditions to bind. [more]

More documents contained in "Thematic Research"

71 (61-71)
April 12, 2018
68
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy in the Month Ahead:
Although EM's upturn is in early stages across many emerging economies and could be sustained for a couple of years in many others, EM's "rally cycle" is already four years long in hard currency debt and its extension hinges crucially on global growth acceleration. [more]
7.6.3