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Cautious lifting of corona restrictions with regional differences to remain
Barbara BoettcherEric HeymannStefan Schneider
Merkel’s cabinet in consultation with the PMs of the 16 federal states agreed to partially lift containment measures but curbing health risks clearly dominated economic risks of a longer shutdown.
Merkel’s cabinet in consultation with the PMs of the 16 federal states agreed to partially lift containment measures but curbing health risks clearly dominated economic risks of a longer shutdown. The decisions taken will be reviewed on a bi-weekly basis with the next meeting of political leaders on April 30. A European coordination of (national) exit strategies is important for Germany given its strong economic interlinkages with other member states. [more]
How deep is your trough? Daily activity trackers suggest that the economy turned at the end of April as lockdown measures were gradually lifted. But we still expect a double-digit decline in Q2 GDP. [more]
Based on DB’s GDP forecast, due to the COVID-19 crisis annual global goods trade will shrink by 13.6% in 2020 and will recover by only 7.5% in 2021. Global goods trade is set to fall much heavier than during the GFC. [more]
The COVID-19 pandemic and, in particular, lockdown measures will push the German economy into its biggest slump since WW2. The COVID-19 pandemic hits German labour market differently than the Global Financial Market Crisis of 2009. [more]
Weaker-than-expected March hard data and shocking April survey data point to a lower trough in economic activity than assumed so far. We now see Q2 GDP falling by 14% qoq, with the risks still skewed to the downside. [more]
Fighting the corona crisis: Whatever it takes. The government’s support measures so far include greater access for firms to short-time allowance, tax moratorium and the potential provision of state guarantees of up to EUR 460 bn. [more]
Corona recession – depth probably close to 2009 slump. Within days lock-down measures and (temporary) factory closures have reached a level that suggests a far bigger H1 contraction than previously thought. [more]
After very weak December data a small drop in Q4 GDP seems likely. Looking forward, the coronavirus provides a substantial risk for the expected global recovery, as hopes were pinned on an improvement of the Chinese economy. [more]