When you access this link, you are leaving the Deutsche Bank website. The information provided on any websites accessed through this link has been produced by independent providers and Deutsche Bank does not endorse or accept any responsibility for information provided on any such sites. Any opinions or recommendations expressed on such other websites are solely those of the independent providers and are not the opinions or recommendations of Deutsche Bank. The existence of a link from this Deutsche Bank page to any other such websites does not constitute a recommendation or other approval by Deutsche Bank of such websites or any provider thereof. With the following buttons, you accept or reject the above-mentioned information.
Barbara BoettcherEric HeymannMarc SchattenbergSebastian BeckerStefan Schneider
Germany has got COVID-19 under control faster than many other countries.
Germany has got COVID-19 under control faster than many other countries. It also recorded one of the lowest infection fatality rates among the G10 countries. The complete fiscal policy U-turn in response to COVID-19 induced economic damage should allow the German economy to weather this crisis better than many other countries – although the impact will still be massive. We have identified six structural features of the German society contributing to its superior collective resilience. Due to these features we expect the German recession in 2020 to be less severe than in most other industrial countries. This crisis resilience should also further improve Germany’s relative position among the major industrial economies once COVID-19 has been overcome. And this will increase pressure on Germany to play an even more supportive role within EMU/EU in the medium term. [more]
Given the continued strong employment build-up and wage increases as well as slight increase in hours worked disposable income should grow by 2.5% even though monetary social benefits and income from self-employment and from investment are expected to rise only at a sub-par rate. [more]
The details of the 0.4% qoq GDP increase released this week have not altered our GDP forecast of 1.5% for 2014. If anything, they have added to our suspicion that current surveys (corporate and consumer) might paint a too rosy picture. [more]
We see economic growth in the order of 1.5% this year. Continuously strong private consumption and a rise in investment in machinery and equipment for the first time in two years are expected to lay the foundation for this solid performance. [more]
The coalition intends to hugely increase pension benefits, introduce a minimum wage and increase public spending. There is as little provision for tax hikes (SPD campaign issues) as for tax relief (CDU and CSU pledges). [more]
We have lifted our forecast for 2013 GDP growth in Germany from 0.1% to 0.5%. This is not based on a more bullish assessment of H2's growth dynamics, though. Our call results instead from the growth surge due to one-off effects in Q2 (0. [more]
In this issue we look at two structural aspects of the German economy which provide speed limiters for GDP growth. The first is the interplay of foreign and domestic demand with implications for the current cyclical forecast. [more]