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2020 Bilateral exports: The great variation

May 18, 2020
Region:
All German export markets will be hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. We foresee great variation among key countries and expect annual exports to the UK and Italy to decline by around 25% in 2020. Large contractions in German exports are also expected for France, Spain and the euro area as a whole. By contrast, exports to Asia may emerge relatively unscathed from the crisis. We expect exports to the US to shrink by around 10% in 2020. However, this forecast seems particularly uncertain to us as the risk of a new wave of infections and new lockdown measures could be higher in the US than elsewhere. [more]

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March 18, 2020
Region:
12
Corona recession – depth probably close to 2009 slump. Within days lock-down measures and (temporary) factory closures have reached a level that suggests a far bigger H1 contraction than previously thought. [more]
7.0.5