The German export momentum is currently benefiting from extremely dynamic world trade. However, it is likely to ease significantly in H2 2010 and above all in 2011. In addition to the impact of this cyclical development the highly export-dependent German economy is also being hit by the adjustments in Europe’s crisis-ridden countries, even though the strain on the German current account is likely to remain within bounds. Nevertheless, in the medium term Germany’s large current account surplus needs to be reduced, as the origins of the crisis lay in undesirable structural developments on both sides, that is not only in current account deficits, but also in the reciprocal surpluses. All in all, we expect that the German current account surplus will first widen from 5.0% to 5 ½% of GDP this year, before narrowing slowly, however. In 2012 it could then stand at 4 ½%.
Die deutsche Exportdynamik profitiert derzeit vom äußerst dynamischen Welthandel, dürfte sich jedoch in H2 2010 und vor allem in 2011 spürbar abschwächen. Neben dieser zyklischen Entwicklung wird die stark exportabhängige deutsche Wirtschaft auch von den Anpassungen in den europäischen Krisenländern getroffen. Der Druck auf die deutsche Leistungsbilanz dürfte sich zwar in Grenzen halten, dennoch ist mittelfristig ein Abbau des hohen deutschen Leistungsbilanzüberschusses notwendig, denn die jüngste Krise hat gezeigt, dass vor allem strukturelle Fehlentwicklungen auf beiden Seiten die Ursache waren, d.h. nicht nur die Leistungsbilanzdefizite, sondern auch die entsprechenden Überschüsse. Alles in allem erwarten wir, dass der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss im laufenden Jahr zunächst noch von 5,0% auf knapp 5 ½% des BIP steigt, danach jedoch langsam abschmilzt. 2012 könnte er dann bei 4 ½% liegen.
The goal of this study is to shed light on Chinese consumers’ evolution and behaviour as well as on the composition of this heterogeneous group. China’s urban consumers are growing in number and in spending power, and their outlook is promising. On the other hand, the potential of rural consumers must still be developed, and their income gap with the urban counterparts narrowed. Policies to support income growth, increase disposable income, and help households grow their wealth are starting to be implemented. These policies, coupled with China’s attractive long-term growth prospects, bode well for China’s consumers, who in a few decades could turn out to be the world economy’s key growth driver.
Das Internet hat als Informationsmedium in den letzten Jahren elementare Bedeutung erlangt – dies gilt auch für die Recherche nach Finanzthemen. Fast 60% aller neu abgeschlossenen Finanzverträge geht eine Online-Recherche voraus. Das ist ein Ergebnis einer innovativen, empirischen Studie, in der Deutsche Bank Research gemeinsam mit Google und der GfK den tatsächlichen finanzrelevanten Internetverkehr analysiert: In welcher Form nutzen Bankkunden das Internet zur Informationsbeschaffung und zur Kaufanbahnung? Welches sind die bevorzugten Finanzthemen im Internet? Wie viel Zeit verbringen die Kunden mit der Recherche? Und wie viele Kunden nutzen dann doch die Filiale zum Vertragsabschluss?
Germany is one of the most knowledge-intensive and innovative countries on Earth. In this study we focus on the innovative performance of its sixteen federal states with reference to eight indicators. The most innovative states lie in the south, while the east trails in terms of absolute levels. However, interdisciplinarity and regional industrial diversity cushion negative effects of structural change on the regions and offer alternative sources of sustained economic growth. Looking at the dynamic of innovation it is apparent that the states in the east of Germany – spearheaded by Saxony – are on the right course.
The rising tide of information available on the internet is altering our requirements and our consumption habits. This is impacting the music and film industries, as well as the computer games and digital book markets. After all, many consumers simply download digital content onto their computers. The majority of files downloaded from the internet are pirated copies since they infringe copyright. Do traditional intellectual property rights hinder or help creative minds and thus innovation online? Can free licensing models be an alternative to traditional copyright and help to broaden the knowledge commons with greater creative freedom?
M-payments have stirred great expectations but shown limited market success so far. Only very few European or North-Americans mobile users currently also pay with their mobile phones. Yet, new attempts to establish m-payments should not be written off automatically. It may not be the grand m-payment schemes many optimists imagine that succeed eventually, but a number of smaller, diverse and intuitively useful applications.
The financial crisis and its regulatory consequences are set to change the landscape of financial centres worldwide. We have identified four drivers of financial centre competitiveness after the crisis: (1) The big-4 financial centres will remain strongholds of global finance. (2) The crisis accelerates the trend towards a multi-polar financial industry, with emerging financial centres gaining in size and competitiveness. (3) National financial market may benefit from domestically-oriented policies in the short run, but will find it harder to compete in the long run. (4) Providing a good regulatory framework will be a key determinant of competitiveness going forward.
Von der Online-Steuererklärung bis hin zum Einkauf von Lebensmitteln über das Internet ist bereits vieles möglich. Die Nutzung von E-Government durch Einzelpersonen hat im EU-27 Durchschnitt zwischen 2005 und 2009 von 23% auf 30% zugenommen; Interneteinkäufe legten von 24% auf 37% zu. Grenzüberschreitende Einkäufe sind zwischen 2006 und 2009 von 26% auf 29% gewachsen und der EU-27 Durchschnitt der Nutzung von Online-Banking stieg von 19% im Jahr 2005 auf 32% im Jahr 2009.
On June 7 the German government presented the key points of a budget consolidation package which foresees total relief of about EUR 82 bn in the next four years.
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