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Global

After decades of rapid globalisation, national economies and financial systems are more closely connected than ever before. At the same time, open markets and free competition are increasingly under criticism and even restricted. A major part of the work of Deutsche Bank Research therefore focuses on how Europe fares in an international comparison, how changing structures and the regulatory framework influence the development of financial service providers, their clients and financial markets globally, and which opportunities and risks result from long-term megatrends such as climate change, demographic change, digitalisation and new forms of mobility.

149 (121-130)
January 20, 2012
Analyst:
The US car market is recovering from its deep crisis. Unit sales and production are likely to increase further in 2012 und 2013. In the medium term, previous record levels will be reached again or even exceeded. German producers should benefit from this development. Their market share in light vehicle sales will grow further. This is due to the attractive product range and the bolstering of production facilities in the US. Diesel and hybrid vehicles will expand their market shares in the US over the next few years. Growth in the diesel market in particular would benefit German companies. [more]
121
December 8, 2011
The U.S. state and local government sector undoubtedly faced significant short-run challenges brought about by the 2007-2009 recession which are likely to partly persist over the next few fiscal years. Yet, warnings of state bankruptcies and mass defaults at the local level are unduly exaggerated. All in all, a satisfactory assessment requires the separation of cyclical revenue problems from looming long-term challenges in pensions and healthcare. Although they do not pose an imminent threat yet, state and local pension funds and retiree healthcare commitments are in dire need of reform in order to keep them affordable. Moreover, to improve their finances, subnational jurisdictions need to correct the structural flaws in their revenue systems and budget processes and increase the effectiveness of spending to curtail the unsustainable ballooning of costs. [more]
122
July 4, 2011
Analyst:
CCS is only one pillar in international climate protection policy, but certainly an important one. However, it currently does not seem likely that this pillar will be able to bear its load as planned for the coming two decades. Without CCS, though, the 2°C target would be in even greater jeopardy than it already is. Politicians’ general commitment to CCS and the realisation that the technology can make a valuable contribution to climate protection must therefore be followed by action: first and foremost, further research must be carried out and, second, price signals for CO2 would be required for its implementation. [more]
124
June 28, 2011
The world trade regime has reached an historic crossroads. Conclusion of the Doha Round this year could give global trade a significant boost. If the negotiations break down, in the medium term the international community faces the prospect of a relapse into tit for tat in trade policy. To bring the Doha Round to a successful conclusion political leadership is necessary – in the big emerging markets as well as in the US and EU. The former also stand to reap substantial gains from reciprocal market liberalisation. [more]
125
June 9, 2011
The financial crisis dealt international banking a serious blow. This paper reviews 1) the extent to which financial markets have become global in recent years as well as the damage inflicted on cross-border linkages by the financial crisis, 2) the reasons for the internationalisation process and 3) prospects for international banking in the “new-normal” environment. Apart from market developments, this reflects a new focus in the political and regulatory debate aimed at increasing the – mostly domestic – grip on the banking industry. [more]
126
June 29, 2010
In real life people do not always decide rationally on the basis of established preferences and complete information. Much of their behaviour is caused through their trying to cope with the complexity of the world around them by approximating. As a rule these approximation methods deliver serviceable results, but they often also lead to distorted perceptions and systematic errors. To avoid making flawed decisions, investors and investment consultants should be aware of these effects when assessing financial products, when estimating factors of relevance to investment performance and their own appetite for risk, and when considering their personal investment behaviour. [more]
127
June 1, 2010
Analyst:
The world’s water markets are confronted with major challenges. The increase in the world's population and higher incomes in developing countries and emerging markets are going hand in hand with a rise in demand for food, energy and other goods. This is resulting in increased demand for water. Climate change will amplify many water-related problems and create new ones. We put the annual investment required in the global water sector at about EUR 400-500 bn. Governments will not be able to raise the funding needed on their own. For this reason, we believe it makes sense for governments and the private sector to cooperate more closely. Makers of “water technologies” will have huge sales potential awaiting them in the coming decades. We have used a scoring model to rank the attractiveness of various countries for investments in the water industry. Among the economies that ranked best are many countries from the Middle East, but also the heavily populated countries of China and India as well as the US and Germany. In principle, though, all countries require a substantial amount of investment in the water sector. [more]
128
May 14, 2010
Final direct cost of the crisis for taxpayers may remain below 1% of GDP in most developed countries. This is only a small fraction of original commitments and also much lower than initial gross expenditures. Direct fiscal costs are in the end unlikely to exceed 2% in the US and 1% in Germany, while banking-sector rescue programmes in France and the UK might possibly even return a net gain. [more]
129
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