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Mark Wall

6 Documents
November 15, 2018
Region:
1
Tensions in financial markets have increased significantly since the populist/Eurosceptic Five Star/League in Italy took power in May and presented a budget in violation of EU rules. In an unprecedented move, the European Commission sent Rome back to the drawing board. Italy has now provided the Commission with its latest fiscal plan – which is not much different from the old plan. [more]
September 18, 2018
Region:
Analyst:
2
The constraints that forced a rapid slowing of euro area GDP growth momentum from 3% to 2% annualized in H1 — the pass through of earlier FX appreciation, the slowing of exports to China, the rise of the oil price — have eased or reversed somewhat, helping stabilize the economy through mid-year. Whether this can be maintained is a function of still-robust fundamentals (cyclical and structural drivers) vs. accumulating risk factors. [more]
May 23, 2018
Region:
3
QE has been a controversial policy wherever it has been implemented, including in the euro zone. With the economy having expanded at the fastest rate in a decade in 2017, the ECB has already begun to scale back its asset purchases from EUR80bn per month at the peak to EUR30bn currently. The ECB is due to make its next decision on QE this summer. Our baseline expectation is that the ECB will announce in July the intention to finish QE at the end of this year. That will be a signal to markets and the economy that it is just a matter of time before the ECB’s other controversial monetary policy – negative deposit rates – is also withdrawn. [more]
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