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The history (and future) of inflation ...

September 19, 2018
It may not feel like it, but we live in inflationary times relative to long-term history. Before the start of the twentieth century, prices crept higher only very slowly over time and were often flat for long periods. In the UK prices were broadly unchanged between 1800 and 1938. However, inflation moved higher everywhere across the globe at numerous points in the twentieth century. UK prices since 1938 are up by a multiple of 50 (+4885%). [more]

More documents about "International"

130 Documents
February 28, 2019
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In 2018, net income at the major European banks climbed to its highest level since the financial crisis. Lower administrative expenses and a further fall in loan loss provisions to multi-year lows more than made up for a decline in revenues. Whereas net interest income stabilised, fee and commission income as well as trading income declined. Banks took a bit more risk, and risk-weighted assets edged up. Total capital remained flat despite higher profits as banks increased returns to shareholders and implemented the new IFRS 9 accounting standard. Consequently, capital ratios declined for the first time since 2008. The gap between European banks and their US peers remained huge as the latter benefited from higher interest rates and lower corporate taxes. [more]
January 17, 2019
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Many investors think of themselves as apolitical, however, recent market turbulence has reinforced just how much politics can affect business and finance. This issue of Konzept offers incisive opinion on some pressing political issues, including the trade war between China and the US, next year’s US presidential election, European populism, technology regulation, Brexit, and more. We also examine how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are helping investors forecast the market impact of political events. [more]
December 14, 2018
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Ahead of and during the UN Climate Summit at Katowice, the usual warnings were heard, saying that a reduction in global carbon emissions was urgently necessary. However, these political calls are much too vague. Instead, the most inconvenient message remains unsaid: The technologies which are available today and in the foreseeable future will, in all probability, prove insufficient to counteract climate change to the necessary extent and with the necessary speed and, at the same time, allow households to stick to their consumption patterns and continue with the well-established division of labour along international production chains. [more]
December 12, 2018
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Since the rally in 2017, the buzzwords bitcoin and blockchain have been omnipresent in the public. Still, the understanding of how much potential the technology actually offers is often rudimentary. To shed more light onto the discussion, we discuss the manifold technological facets as well as the social changes that might come on the heels of the technology. After outlining the utopia, we point out the technical as well as the social hurdles that are standing in the way of the revolution. [more]
November 21, 2018
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Steady growth in air transport is leading to capacity bottlenecks, both in terms of available planes and at individual airports. Capacities will need to be increased, which means that more money must be earmarked for fixed-asset investments as well as labour and operating expenses. Taken together, the growing pains in the aviation sector and the rise in jet fuel prices may prove an overwhelming chal-lenge for some market participants. Air transport growth has also resulted in higher capacity utilisation in related sectors, such as tourism (the “overtourism” phenomenon comes to mind). There are, in fact, discussions about limiting or redirecting visitor flows. [more]
November 8, 2018
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German exporters have had to deal with numerous challenges over the last few years. Exports to the UK, Russia and Turkey have been unusually volatile and trended downwards. Nevertheless, aggregate German exports rose by more than 3% p.a. in real terms between 2012 and 2017. Since the beginning of 2018, the trade conflict between the US and China has steadily intensified. The challenges might spread and turn into a global problem if the US begins to levy import tariffs on additional imports from China and/or increases existing tariffs. Doing so would probably cause the Chinese authorities to respond in kind. [more]
October 16, 2018
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This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views moving forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key ongoing/upcoming political developments (Brexit, Italy, US mid-term, etc.) and major risks in the rest of 2018. Find also our views on US macro and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. [more]
October 4, 2018
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Investors have long attempted to incorporate ESG information into their stockpicking decisions, however, ESG funds have underperformed the market. This issue shows how the latest developments in artificial intelligence and machine learning are finally giving investors the upper hand. Big data catches out ‘greenwashing’ and provides forward-looking market signals that outperform the market. This is a boon for investors who want to determine how ESG issues affect the fair value of stocks. [more]
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