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Demography and the global economy – “continental” drift is well underway

September 25, 2015
Continental drift is slow, takes place almost imperceptibly and ends up having dramatic effects in the long run. In this, it is very similar to demographic change. Let us begin with a few facts. The world’s population is set to grow from 7.3 bn today to more than 9.7 bn by 2050. By comparison, the world’s population was a mere 2.5 bn in 1950. The regional (continental) demographic balance has been shifting for quite some time. In 1950, four of the ten largest countries were European (Germany, Italy, USSR, UK). Today, only Russia, ironically the country with the most adverse demographics, ranks among the top-10. In 1950, the big European four made up 10% of the world’s population. This figure has dropped to 5% today and will continue to decline for the foreseeable future. The populations of Africa and Asia will continue to increase significantly – and dramatically so in Africa – over the next few decades (chart). Admittedly, the aggregate increase hides significant intra-regional differences (e.g. East versus South Asia). [more]

More documents about "International"

140 (81-92)
November 26, 2015
Analyst:
81
Roughly 150 countries have submitted their national climate protection commitments in the run-up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. While these commitments will probably not suffice to meet the 2°C target, related assessments are very favourable nonetheless. Obviously, the bottom-up approach, that is to say the voluntary national climate protection commitments, promises greater progress than the globally coordinated negotiated solution targeted at past UN climate conferences. There is an awareness that the current proposals have shortcomings as regards the 2°C target, but there are hopes that the individual countries will aim for more ambitious targets over the next few years. Sentiment is thus swinging between optimism and realism. Considering the growing demand for energy, the international community is clearly only just beginning to encounter the real challenges of climate protection. [more]
November 6, 2015
82
Africa is drawing a variety of investors in search of natural resources and fast-growing consumer markets. They are eager to benefit from some of the highest economic growth rates in the world – as two-thirds of the countries in the continent will grow at over 5% over the next 5 years – and favourable demographics. Africa’s fast-growing, very young and increasingly urban population is currently estimated at 1.2 bn and set to exceed 4 bn by 2100, when around 40% of the global population will be living in Africa, based on projections from the UN. As the EU and China remain Africa’s main trade and investment partners and President Obama has given momentum to the US-Africa partnership, India’s involvement with Africa has been growing steadily. It is set to intensify further, based on the synergies of needs and interests. [more]
August 19, 2015
84
Between 2000 and 2014, unit passenger car sales grew by 27.5% in China on average – per year. However, for the past several months there have been signs of the dynamic growth petering out; from May to July 2015 sales were in fact down 1.3% on the corresponding year-earlier level. The average growth of car demand in China is poised to plummet to a single-digit rate in the next few years. This is a step towards "normality". The anticipated slower growth in demand for passenger cars – coupled with growing production capacities in China for the time being – are likely to lead to further intensifying price and competitive pressures in the Chinese market. German makers of premium-segment cars will be unable to escape completely unscathed from the impact of such a trend. [more]
June 18, 2015
Analyst:
86
Industry 4.0 (also known as integrated industry, industrial internet) is currently the subject of intense debate. This megatrend sets out to change the way goods and services are created and distributed, reshaping the industrial landscape on a national and global scale. China intends to play a leading role in this digital evolution. A wide range of policies have been initiated and sizeable progress in various areas has been made. The country is determined to seize the outstanding opportunity at hand, as the recently unveiled “Made in China 2025” plan underlines. China still has a long road ahead. However, with its new plan it combines a long-term vision with concrete actions in the proclaimed “Year of Innovation”. [more]
June 9, 2015
87
The time is ripe for established banks to transform themselves into digital platform-based ecosystems. With their current digital strategies the banks will not achieve the resounding success that will enable them to hold their own in the medium to long term. Not only certain business models, distribution and communication channels, products, services and processes, but especially the ways data are handled need to be rethought and redesigned. Implementing a fundamental reform attuned to the digital age will provide the opportunity for traditional banks to learn and adopt the strengths and particularly the monetarisation strategies (walled gardens) of the successful digital ecosystems. [more]
April 24, 2015
89
There are good reasons to think that the revival in African growth over the last decade has been based on much more than the super cycle in commodities and demand from China. Over the next decade, however, the region’s centre of economic gravity is likely to shift towards the less resource-dependent economies in East Africa. East African countries are economically more diverse and beginning to form a relatively large and well-integrated regional market. Therefore, beyond the likely improvement in their terms of trade, they appear better-placed to deliver the structural economic transformation that will be needed to create jobs for the fast-growing working age population. [more]
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