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GFC 10 years on - More debt money printing has covered up a debt crisis

September 13, 2018
The 15th September will mark ten years since Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a cataclysmic event which reverberated throughout financial markets and led to the “Global Financial Crisis“. This laid the foundations for an extraordinary period for central bank activity and therefore financial markets. It’s still not clear if lessons from the GFC have been learned. In our 2017 Long Term Study “The Next Financial Crisis” we argued that the global financial system post Bretton Woods remains vulnerable to financial crises, and their frequency has been higher in this period than across all prior financial history. The GFC was clearly an extreme case and likely a once-in-a-lifetime event. However, in solving this crisis we have added more debt to an already heavily indebted system and our central banks have imposed a decade of extraordinary measures, from which most still struggle to withdraw. [more]

50 Documents
May 15, 2019
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Who pays when a tariff is imposed on an imported product? Formally, of course, it is the importer that is assessed the tariff. But if the exporter has lowered her price, the tariff-inclusive price may not be higher than the prevailing price before the tariff was introduced. [more]
May 8, 2019
4
China's USD 12-trillion stock market is a vast and complicated panoply of different share types across a wide variety of markets, exchanges and share classes. With the rising role of A-shares amongst international emerging markets (EM) indices, understanding the market dynamics of China's equity markets will be increasingly critical, as Chinese equities are set to become an increasing proportion of the global opportunity set, driven by their increasing role in EM equities. Deutsche Bank’s research team looks at the distinguishing features of China's onshore and offshore markets. [more]
April 4, 2019
Analyst:
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April 1 marked an important milestone for China’s financial markets, as Chinese Yuan-denominated bonds are to be included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. According to Bloomberg, the index will include over 360 eligible bonds, with a c.6% weight, making it the fourth-largest currency component in the index, after the USD, the EUR and the JPY, and the inclusion will take place over a 20-month period. [more]
March 12, 2019
10
The performance of the Eurozone economy is inextricably linked to the health of its banking system. That means the economy will likely stagnate unless European banks can build robust balance sheets, earn a competitive return on equity, and generate adequate capital to support faster growth and innovation. European policymakers must make bold decisions as there are serious doubts as to whether the continent’s banks can compete internationally with US institutions. This paper takes a careful look at the European banking system and suggests a number of remedies to improve the sustainability of its returns for the good of the economy and taxpayers. [more]
January 16, 2019
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Deutsche Bank Research launches the twentieth edition of the Quantcraft series, a one of a kind deep dive into new trading and analytical models across different asset classes. It helps clients understand structural drivers of market returns and how to systematically extract value from them. The latest report focusses on foreign exchange. Not only does it assess the sensitivity of global currency returns to pertinent drivers including sentiment, valuations, monetary policy and interest rate differentials, but it also guides the investor on how to use those drivers to make economically rewarding decisions. Our research targets all investors involved in foreign exchange, from the corporate treasurer seeking to efficiently manage currency risk to the institutional investor building absolute return strategies. [more]
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