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Human capital is the key to growth - Success stories and policies for 2020

August 1, 2005
Human capital is the most important factor of production in today's economies - and education is an investment that generates higher incomes in future. The growth stars of the coming years identified in our introductory study base their success on major gains in human capital. The success stories of Spain and South Korea show that political changes can have a lasting impact on human capital. [more]

More documents about "International"

105 (97-105)
October 22, 2008
Analyst:
97
Sovereign wealth funds are headed for a new state of normality and set to be recognised as institutional investors like many others. With their commitment to the Santiago Principles on greater transparency and robust governance, they have made a strong and credible commitment to financial objectives. Their important and constructive role as investors during the financial crisis has earned them additional credibility. Eyes are now on the recipient countries to present guidelines for open and more uniform investment conditions. Policy efforts should focus on bringing OECD guidelines to fruition, and ensuring that they are adhered to worldwide. [more]
April 11, 2008
98
Climate change constitutes a challenge for the global tourism industry. The result will be regional and seasonal shifts in tourist flows. There will therefore be winners and losers. The Mediterranean region will be one of the losers, while – among others – Denmark, Germany, the Benelux countries and the Baltic states may benefit. The impact of negative climate developments will be particularly strong if climate-sensitive tourism has major economic significance. In Europe this applies to Malta, Cyprus, Spain, Austria and Greece. At a global level, however, the tourism business will remain a growth sector. [more]
February 14, 2008
99
After four years of above-average growth the global economy is clearly slowing down. The US housing recession and high oil prices are dampening global economic growth, even though the substantial USD depreciation of the last two years, decisive and timely Fed action and the USD 150 bn fiscal package will prevent a US recession. Due to robust domestic demand and solid current account surpluses in many cases the emerging markets – contrary to previous shocks – are providing an element of stabilisation. Europe will be affected by the US slowdown with a lag while the strong currency continues to be a drag. [more]
July 27, 2007
100
The US current account has swelled to USD 811 bn, or 6.1% of GDP, at the last count. We do not believe that a deficit of this magnitude is sustainable in the long term. A reduction of the international imbalances still need not take place abruptly. After all, the US current account deficit is also the upshot of investment decisions in the surplus countries. A strengthening of domestic demand in Asia and stronger diversification efforts in the oil-producing countries aimed at reducing their reliance on oil revenues suggest that less capital will flow to the USA. The still fast-expanding trade in services also points to an improvement in the US current account in the longer term. Here, the USA is a frontrunner, which gives it a competitive edge. [more]
May 29, 2007
101
Global liquidity has become abundant over the past few years mainly owing to extremely accommodative monetary policies in the US, Euroland and Japan. Since this liquidity "glut" has barely shown up in consumer price inflation, it has likely contributed to asset price inflation. There are basically two scenarios for how global "excess" liquidity could be cut back over the medium to long term: (1) continued global monetary tightening or at least no monetary easing soon and (2) global nominal GDP expanding faster than the money stock over time. [more]
March 20, 2006
103
Life expectancy and health spending have been increasing for decades the world over. This life extension trend is an important engine of growth: investment in education brings higher returns; lower mortality raises population growth. However, the speed and impact of the trend cluster are still underestimated: forecasts of life expectancy and the size of the health sector are probably still too low - making the need for adjustment in the political and business community greater than many people have thought. [more]
March 23, 2005
104
Substantiated, long-run growth forecasts are in the limelight following the New Economy disappointments and repeated crises in the emerging markets. With the help of "Formel-G", we identify the sources of economic long-term growth and generate forecasts for 34 economies until 2020. India, Malaysia and China will post the highest GDP growth rates over 2006-20 according to our "Formel-G" approach. Strong population growth, a rapid improvement in human capital and increasing trade with other countries allow average GDP growth of more than 5% per year in these three countries. Ireland, the USA and Spain are the OECD economies expected to grow most quickly. [more]
August 1, 2002
Analyst:
105
The internet presents new challenges in taxation. The imposition of a turnover tax on e-commerce is hampered by the difficulties involved in identifying the consumer. It is nearly impossible to apply the destination principle, which is standard practice internationally. In the taxation of profits, international companies might obtain new scope for optimising their tax burden. Both aspects may lead to erosion of the tax base. At present, however, the volume of e-commerce is still too small to trigger serious fiscal problems. [more]
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