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Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics, etc.
Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics, etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes. [more]
The exponential growth of the digital economy is going to leave large chunks of minorities with little or no access to jobs. We conduct a bottom up societal study and it shows that 76% of Blacks and 62% of Hispanics could get shut out or be under-prepared for 86% of jobs in the US by 2045. If this digital racial gap is not addressed, in one generation alone, digitization could render the country’s minorities into an unemployment abyss. [more]
The unemployment rates of teenagers and young adults were already attracting attention during the financial and euro crisis. The corona crisis has again led to massive distortions on the labour markets in many countries. However, the initial development of the official youth unemployment rate was fairly diverse internationally. In some countries the unemployment rate has even fallen sharply. [more]
The unique nature of the pandemic shock and the wide uncertainty surrounding it, meant there was no one historical playbook that fit easily. So inevitably there were going to be some surprises. In the event, there have been many. [more]
This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views going forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments and major risks in 2020. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes. [more]
Machine learning, with all of their processing power, they’re able to more quickly highlight or find patterns in big data that would have otherwise been missed by human beings. Machine learning is a tool that can be used to enhance humans’ abilities to solve problems and make informed inferences on a wide range of problems, much wider than financial services for example helping diagnose diseases to coming up with solutions for global climate change. [more]
Tail risks such as Covid-19 are thankfully rare compared with other market shocks. However, they are a more regular occurrence than most people think, with pandemics being just one example. In a new report the Thematic Research team considers various tail risks that could cause another global crisis, and assess the probability that they will occur. [more]
Public attention has shifted away from climate change as the coronavirus pandemic has spread. Nevertheless, mitigating climate change and making sure that the growing global population has access to climate-friendly energy remain among the key challenges of this century. These issues will still be on the agenda when the pandemic is over. It is therefore an encouraging sign that many policymakers and corporates have said they will not only take into account, but pay more attention to climate protection when re-opening the economy. The heated discussion about which instruments are best suited to ensure climate protection will continue for years to come, though. [more]
After shrugging off a historic plunge in April employment, market participants will likely need to digest further record-setting monthly declines in core CPI inflation as well as April retail sales and industrial production. However, with financial markets seemingly numb to the bad data news, Fed Chair Powell's appearance on Wednesday may overshadow what is likely to be epic weakness in this week's economic data. [more]
Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views. [more]