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Automation – not a job killer

June 6, 2018
About 250 years on from the first industrial revolution, we appear to be on the brink of a new age of automation, one dominated by complex robots and artificial intelligence. In this issue, we examine the impact of the next generation of automation on workers, industry, and society at large. Evidence from history, economics, and our industry analysts suggest that robots are more likely to complement us than replace us. [more]

More documents about "International"

153 (37-48)
September 13, 2018
37
The 15th September will mark ten years since Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a cataclysmic event which reverberated throughout financial markets and led to the “Global Financial Crisis“. This laid the foundations for an extraordinary period for central bank activity and therefore financial markets. It’s still not clear if lessons from the GFC have been learned. In our 2017 Long Term Study “The Next Financial Crisis” we argued that the global financial system post Bretton Woods remains vulnerable to financial crises, and their frequency has been higher in this period than across all prior financial history. The GFC was clearly an extreme case and likely a once-in-a-lifetime event. However, in solving this crisis we have added more debt to an already heavily indebted system and our central banks have imposed a decade of extraordinary measures, from which most still struggle to withdraw. [more]
September 13, 2018
38
EM stress is still largely idiosyncratic, but the risk of a broader fallout is increasing. We have argued that external factors account for two-thirds to three-fourths of EM’s performance – especially for credit markets. The worsening of these external conditions is exposing the weakest links across EM and taking a disproportionate toll on several important economies. So far they are bearing the brunt of EM’s stress. [more]
September 11, 2018
39
We’re at the stage of the policy tightening cycle where history suggests a higher likelihood of accidents in financial markets. Recent events support that, with markets buffeted by negative headlines from Italy, Turkey, Argentina, and broader EMs. Although there are idiosyncratic risks in the above, they are being magnified by a persistent, if steady, Fed tightening cycle and an ECB that is tapering towards a QE standstill. Meanwhile Brexit and trade wars bubble along in the background. [more]
September 5, 2018
40
It remains a macro world for credit, with no real concerns of a fundamental nature within the corporate bond universe. The problem is that the macro world has become increasingly complicated this year. At the start of 2018, when markets were extraordinarily becalmed, we did feel that 2018 would see the return of volatility and that credit spreads would widen in sympathy. The reality is that 2018 has certainly deviated from our roadmap even if spreads have migrated to roughly where we thought they would be at this stage of the year. [more]
July 25, 2018
42
This edition reviews the global macro outlook, the risk and effects of a trade war, and geopolitical developments in Europe. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts. [more]
June 27, 2018
43
This edition reviews the global macro outlook, the risk of a trade war, and geopolitical developments in Europe. Read on for our views on the US macro outlook and the Fed, the eurozone and the ECB, and China’s macro outlook and risks. Find also a summary of our views on key themes as well as on the different asset classes and the main macro and markets forecasts. [more]
June 11, 2018
44
China ran a $376bn trade surplus against the US in 2017. US goods exports to China are worth only a quarter of US imports from China. However, these numbers do not capture the true size of US business interest in China. They are at odds with the fact, for example, that Chinese consumers own more active iPhones and buy more General Motor cars than US consumers do. These cars and phones are sold to China not through US exports, but through Chinese subsidiaries of US multinational enterprises. [more]
June 7, 2018
Topic:
45
When reporting on bitcoin, blockchain and cryptocurrencies these days, the speaker is faced with the question: Shall he discuss the technology or move directly to the presentation of the social and economic implications? Conveying a complex technology in just a few minutes is risky. In Alice's rabbit burrow, the speaker and his audience quickly lose track of each other. But the audience may also be left clueless by the direct presentation of the potentially revolutionary implications. In the face of this dilemma and the complexity of cryptosystems, we will try to shed light on the issue by means of metaphors. We hope you will join us on our journey into the blockchain universe. [more]
June 4, 2018
47
Asian economies have, collectively, grown at a remarkably stable rate over the past five years. Twenty-six consecutive quarters of GDP growth between 6% and 7% despite an occasionally challenging external environment – including the euro crisis, a volatile Japanese economy and large variations in energy prices – was a much better outcome than we, and we dare say most other observers, had expected. [more]
May 31, 2018
48
Once more, Europe is becoming messy. We did not expect politics to turn so negative this year. The Italians face a difficult task of restoring investor confidence, and Italy is too important to ignore. But European volatility does not translate into US positivity; we believe the underlying dollar outlook remains negative, and the US midterms will add to political noise. Beyond the dollar, volatility breeds opportunity, and we identify numerous trades in currency crosses that should not be sensitive to messy American or European politics. [more]
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