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After a year of strong and highly synchronised global growth, momentum undeniably slowed this year.
After a year of strong and highly synchronised global growth, momentum undeniably slowed this year. This has raised concern over the growth cycle, and the potential impact on risk assets.
However, our global macro view remains positive and we still forecast the global economy to grow robustly this year. We have downgraded our 2018 forecast for the eurozone, which is balanced by an upgrade to our China forecast. In the US, our outlook is unchanged as fiscal policy begins trickling through the economy and the Federal Reserve continues to withdraw accommodation. [more]
The global economic outlook has improved since September thanks to the positive vaccine news, and we now see global GDP returning to its pre-virus levels in Q2 2021. Significant risks around this forecast remain both to the downside (if the virus were to spread more severely this winter or a vaccine rollout were delayed) and the upside (if a vaccine rollout is quicker than anticipated). [more]
Over the summer months, the outlook for the global economy and financial markets has brightened. As such, we now see the global economy contracting by a smaller -3.9% this year, with global activity returning to its pre-virus level by the second half of next year, albeit with the major developed countries likely to take several more quarters to reach the same point. [more]
This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views going forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments and major risks in 2020. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes. [more]
Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views. [more]
Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views [more]
Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views. [more]
Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views. [more]
Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and our expectations for central bank responses. We also outline key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, etc.), major risks in 2019, and update our cross asset market views. [more]
Read on for our discussion of the recent shift in central bank policy and the implications for the global economy. We also outline key recent/upcoming political developments (new European leadership, Brexit, trade war, etc.), major risks in 2019, and update our cross asset market views. [more]
Read on for our recap of the evolving macro outlook and the shifting trends in monetary policy. We also outline key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, etc.), major risks in 2019, and update our cross asset market views. [more]
Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics, etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes. [more]
This edition reviews recent market moves and outlines Deutsche Bank Research's key views going forward. Read on for our recap of the global macro outlook, key recent/upcoming political developments (Brexit, trade war, EU politics etc.) and major risks in 2019. Also, find our views on the Fed, the ECB, and all major asset classes. [more]