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Western European car market: Recovery continues

June 19, 2015
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2015New passenger car registrations in the EU-15 rose year on year for the 21st consecutive month in May 2015. True, at 0.8% yoy, growth is relatively low. However, this is due to the fact that the number of potential sales days was lower in some countries in May 2015 than in May 2014. [more]

More documents about "Germany"

234 (133-144)
August 14, 2015
Region:
133
For the average German a sack of rice falling over in China has long been none of his business. In the meantime, however, the importance of events in China for the German economy has come to be recognised. China's unexpectedly weak economic indicators and the fluctuations in the Chinese stock market have increased the scepticism over recent months about whether China will achieve the growth target set by the government for this year of around 7%. Our China economist remains confident that the Chinese economy will stabilise following expected GDP growth of nearly 7% yoy in Q3 thanks to the support measures instigated by the government. However, German exporters are already having to contend with a marked softening of demand from China. [more]
August 11, 2015
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134
Given the merely average state of communications infrastructure in Germany today, this country could fall behind in the international competition to attract investment. This worry is exacerbated by the fact that even within Germany there is a risk of a significant gulf developing between the regions. However, while broadband expansion is indeed making progress in the densely populated regions, major challenges exist in rural regions with respect to return on investment. When it comes to bridging systemic profitability gaps, the government will have to step into the breach if such projects are also to progress. The funding additionally earmarked in the federal budget and the revenues currently generated from "Digital Dividend II" should provide stimuli for expansion. However, despite government aid it must always be clear that broadband expansion can only be profitable in the first place if modern networks are complemented with modern services. [more]
August 10, 2015
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135
German manufacturers increased output by 0.2% qoq in real terms in Q2 2015. However, growth will probably be slower in H2 than anticipated to date. Therefore, we are revising our forecast for 2015 output to the downside – from 1.5% so far to 1% (both in real terms). The moderate uptrend is roughly set to continue in 2016. Manufacturing output could climb by 1% again in the coming year. This means its growth rate would continue to fall short of the long-term average. Furthermore, manufacturing's share in Germany's total gross value-added would decline. [more]
August 5, 2015
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136
As one possible way of reacting to the loss of our data sovereignty, efforts should be taken to launch education campaigns without delay (ideally on an international basis). This can help to establish greater internet and media expertise among the population at large in the medium to long run. Furthermore, an international legal framework would be desirable in order to regulate the use of data and algorithm-based technologies as well as limiting lax data-collection practices. [more]
July 31, 2015
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137
The total passenger volume at German regional airports decreased steadily from 2010 to 2014. In a longer-term comparison, the volume in 2014 was barely 5% higher than in 2005. During the same period, the larger German airports experienced growth of 25.6%. The range of flights available at most regional airports remains small. Therefore, the anticipated positive effects on the local economy are small, as are the transport benefits. With few exceptions, regional airports have been in the red for about the past ten years. In 2013, for example, none of the airports discussed in this paper was able to show a profit. Looking ahead, we remain sceptical with regard to expansion plans at regional airports. It would still be preferable if the federal government were the competent authority on the fundamental question of whether and where airport capacities should be expanded. [more]
July 31, 2015
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138
German model – has a consensus economy reached its limit? German output growth poised to outstrip potential again in current year. Despite new government spending programmes there should be continued budget surpluses for the time being. Given the strengths of its institutional framework Germany has so far largely been able to avoid the possibility of distributional conflicts feeding through in the shape of higher government deficits and/or rising inflation. Demographic developments, not least, will probably put this resilience to the test. However, a new reform thrust is needed in view of decreasing locational advantages. It remains to be seen whether society will carry through with an update of the Agenda 2010 reforms. [more]
July 28, 2015
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139
Debate over blockchain technology is raging in many online and offline media at present. In principle, the technology constitutes a decentralised ledger system that can be coordinated via peer-to-peer (P2P) networks. Any ownership or security issues arising in connection with the decentralised transactions conducted across the ledger system are handled by P2P mechanisms as well, i.e. also without a central node. Ownership status is established via the digital exchange of cryptographic keys (public vs private), while fraudulent transactions can largely be ruled out with the help of the cryptographic 'proof of work' system. Using a proof of work, blockchain technology enables the rapid, inexpensive transfer of assets and financial products between individuals who neither know nor trust one another, without a compelling need for an intermediary to reduce existing information asymmetries. [more]
July 20, 2015
Region:
140
If all goes well, the Iranian economy could begin to reintegrate into the world economy in early 2016. This harbours opportunities especially for Iran itself and its 80 million inhabitants. However, it is also likely to provide a moderate stimulus to world trade and German exports. In addition, increased Iranian oil production could dampen oil prices and thus support the growth of real income of German households. [more]
July 3, 2015
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141
The digital strategies currently unveiled by traditional banks do not go far enough and often deliver only fragmented silo solutions. With each division “doing its own thing” and adopting the silo principle that stifles innovation, many (digital) financial innovations are primarily experienced at the client front-end and are also warmly welcomed. However, the banks will not achieve resounding success using such methods. [more]
June 30, 2015
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142
These days, financial market commentaries are often laced with expressions such as "topsy-turvy" and "Alice in Wonderland". Recently, even Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda described the need for unconditional faith in the inflationary impact of Japanese monetary policy with a reference to Peter Pan, quoting Peter as saying that (in his world) "the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it". [more]
June 29, 2015
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143
While the core inflation rate has remained relatively stable since 2011 at an average of slightly above 1% yoy the oil price slump is the main reason for the temporary decline in consumer prices at the start of 2015. However, the oil price rise of some 30% since January and the stabilisation of the EUR exchange rate sent the German inflation rate out of negative territory after just one month and then made it accelerate to 0.7% yoy recently. We therefore expect slightly stronger increases in consumer prices of 0.5% this year and 2.0% in 2016. With our forecast the risks are more pronounced to the downside. The oil price might rise more slowly than expected on account of the global oversupply. In addition, the EUR/USD has now stabilised at above 1.10 after hitting its low in mid-April. Our forecast assumes EUR/USD parity by year-end. [more]
June 26, 2015
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144
The average age of cars on German roads hit a new record high of nine years at the beginning of 2015. The primary reason for this is the improved quality of vehicles. Although the diesel share of new car registrations has averaged well over 40% in recent years, diesel only constituted 31% of the cars on German roads at last count. The durability of cars is causing the mix of cars in service to change only slowly. The diesel car example suggests that it may take many years before cars powered by alternative technologies constitute a major share of all the cars registered in Germany. The vision of a future with largely climate-neutral or locally emission-free vehicles on German roads by 2050 is virtually unattainable as things currently stand. [more]
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