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Unfilled orders in German industry: Near their peak

February 19, 2019
Region:
Analyst:
Despite broad-based weakness in recent months, the stock of orders in German manufacturing remained on the uptrend, partly led by the lack of skilled labour and one-off factors in the auto industry (WLTP, diesel). Whilst the high volume of unfilled orders should stabilise industrial production in the current year, the peak ought to be near, as suggested by recent results of the ifo business survey. On balance, manufacturing production in Germany looks set to be virtually flat in 2019. [more]

More documents about "Germany"

241 (229-240)
May 27, 2011
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Analyst:
229
The financial situation of Germany’s Länder, or constituent federal states, is often overshadowed by the situation of the Federation and the municipalities. In the course of this year DB Research plans to publish a series of articles on various topics pertaining to the Länder and their finances. This launch study aims to highlight the complex financial relations between the Federation and the Länder as well as the latter’s limited autonomy. The Länder are allowed to make largely autonomous decisions solely in respect of borrowing; capital market financing has gained considerable significance for a number of them. The scope of the financial equalisation system and the judgements handed down by the Federal Constitutional Court ensure the practical anchoring of the solidarity principle, which is tantamount to a joint liability system with a bail-out guarantee. More Länder autonomy – partly by means of a surcharge on income tax – would make sense. The creation of the Stability Council and a debt brake at Länder level has for the first time produced a preventive instrument for timely corrective action in the event of budget imbalances. [more]
March 15, 2011
Region:
230
Of course it is important to keep close tabs on the path of inflation going forward – especially in view of a volatile oil price – and the ECB has spoken also in this context of its “strong vigilance”. Yet an inflation rate of 2% or perhaps 2 ½% in the coming months largely represents a reversion to the normal pattern following the recession-induced lows of the past two years, driven mainly by oil and food prices. In any event, on the assumption that food and oil prices return to normal our DB Research inflation model forecasts no dramatic surge in inflation. We are aware, though, that some of the structural changes of the past decades may have reduced the meaningfulness of the forecasts produced by such a model. [more]
January 4, 2011
Region:
231
Our forecast of 2% GDP growth in Germany in 2011 is indeed quite optimistic. Moreover, there are two articles in this issue of Current Issues which demonstrate that the financial and economic crisis has not dampened growth potential in Germany. On the one hand, no structural imbalances developed prior to the crisis. On the other hand, in particular the labour market reforms and successful company restructuring over the last decade have ensured that the German economy is in excellent shape on an international comparison. The adjustment processes had, however, resulted in weak growth in household income. This could now improve. Private consumption is expected to grow by almost 1 ½% p.a. on a medium-term horizon. This would, however, be a sustainable performance that is not based on debt and real estate bubbles – in sharp contrast with the considerably higher consumption growth in several countries before the crisis. [more]
January 29, 2009
Region:
232
For the first time in five years Germany is back in recession. Economic output has been on the decline since the second quarter of 2008. The financial markets crisis and the global economic downturn will weigh heavily on growth in 2009. Gross domestic product will continue to contract in real terms at least until the middle of this year. The loss of major sales markets and the surge in the euro – even though it has retraced slightly – will likely cause exports to decline markedly in real terms for the first time since 1993. Shrinking foreign demand together with declining profits in many sectors will lead to investment in plant and equipment contracting by 10%. Despite fiscal stimulus packages private consumption is scarcely likely to increase by more than a tad again in 2009 in the face of significantly falling employment and a rising savings ratio. [more]
October 2, 2008
Region:
233
Gross domestic product is less and less often used as the sole measure of a country's progress. Broader measures of wellbeing are moving centre-stage. Many theories of societal progress use similar variables, which tend to develop hand in hand: life satisfaction, freedom, trust, education, income, employment, government effectiveness, the quality of democracy, corruption reduction, tolerance, participation and innovation. While Scandinavian countries are in the lead in many aspects, Germany has room for improvement, particularly in terms of education, employment, government effectiveness, corruption and the quality of democracy. To achieve sustainable progress all sectors of society must be involved: federal, state and municipal policy-makers, businesses and individual citizens. [more]
May 19, 2008
Region:
234
Female and male participation in most walks of life are unequal today, either due to lack of opportunity or by choice. Along which dimensions are changes likely in Germany by 2020? Looking forward, we need to find some answers, in order to make the right decisions. We therefore examine the interactions between women and future structural changes, such as population ageing, a growing project economy, increasing knowledge intensity and fast-spreading virtual connectedness. We develop a plausible future, for women, and shaped by women, and pinpoint implications for government and corporations. [more]
February 5, 2008
Region:
235
Recent progress on budget consolidation notwithstanding, there is still no consistent focus in Germany on higher-quality public finances, on either the expenditure or revenue side. What is more, the institutional fiscal policy framework is not state-of-the-art. In this paper, which also features an article by invitation from the Federal Ministry of Finance, we examine other countries’ experience in improving the quality of their public finances and discuss the conditions for political success – on both the federal and state level and EU-wide. [more]
January 7, 2008
Region:
236
Happy regions in Germany share many things in common: they all score well not only in terms of life satisfaction, but also with regard to trust in fellow citizens, state of health, unemployment, birth rate and income. This is in line with DB Research’s analysis at country level. The regions of Donau-Iller, Ostwuerttemberg, Osnabrueck and Hamburg-Umland-Sued achieve particularly good scores. There are no urban agglomerations in the uppermost ranks, though. The east German regions bring up the rear in this ranking. Our analysis suggests that well-being can be shaped and fostered on a regional/decentralised basis with a comprehensive policy approach. [more]
October 3, 2007
Region:
237
Germany faces historic challenges. The continuing structural shift towards a knowledge-based economy, fresh competition from Asia and other parts of the world, rapid ageing, tight fiscal constraints and global climate change are the most prominent examples. To develop future-proof strategies, politicians and businesses must take a look at the future interaction of these forces. With an innovative scenario analysis we therefore sketch the directions in which Germany could conceivably develop up to 2020. The most plausible of these future scenarios is the "Expedition Deutschland". [more]
September 27, 2007
Region:
238
With Germany's Grand Coalition two years into its first term, it is time for a midway review of what the government has achieved so far and a look at what the second half of the legislative period might bring. The Grand Coalition still lacks assertiveness in its economic and social policy. Reforms of corporate and investment income tax have been addressed only half-heartedly; the tax landscape is a work in progress. Structural energy and environmental policy reforms will be launched. The higher cost of environmental awareness should be another reason to lighten the tax and contributions load. [more]
July 6, 2007
Region:
239
The succession gap in Germany’s Mittelstand (small and medium-sized enterprises, or SMEs) is overstated. Attractive businesses have no difficulty finding new owners these days. However, with succession solutions outside the proprietor families on the increase, the successful, typically German (family) business structure could start to crumble. Might this also impair the German Mittelstand’s business capital – high flexibility coupled with organically evolved trust? In the long term many SMEs are looking at a bright future. Crucial to this – besides the efficient organisation of generation change – are new forms of cooperation and modern financing instruments. A better political environment for business start-ups and a more open-minded attitude to the immigration of business talent would strengthen the entrepreneurial landscape as a whole. [more]
March 27, 2007
Region:
240
Ageing does not directly impact the total shares of expenditures at the country level, although it will drastically affect the nature of demand within most consumption segments. In fact, economic growth is the main driver of change in the consumption structure, through rising levels of expenditures and shifts in relative prices. (Ageing is indirectly at play here through its effect on income distribution). Another important driver is societal transformation. Our projections show that, when all three drivers are factored in, transport, housing, health care and entertainment take larger expenditure shares at the expense of food. [more]
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