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Cyclical vs structural: observing the unobservable

October 31, 2018
Region:
The workhorse framework of macroeconomics and monetary policy relies on the build-up of inflationary pressures across the cycle as the economy tightens, and firms have no choice but to raise wages, which ultimately lifts consumer prices. Within that narrative, the estimation of slack in the economy – the output gap – is crucial to monetary policy authorities. A positive output gap means that the economy is away from its long-term steady-state equilibrium, and unsustainable cost pressures are building up. Currently, the OECD / IMF / European Commission estimate of the output gap in the euro-area is slightly positive and reaching close to 1% by the end of next year. [more]

59 Documents
September 23, 2019
3
Jim Reid, Global Head of Thematic Research & Credit Research, Deutsche Bank Research has just published his annual Long-Term Asset Return Study. This year's focus is on the History and Future of Debt. The report also have all the usual long-term returns data for dozens of countries across different asset classes tracked back over more than a century for many series. [more]
September 2, 2019
Region:
5
The government will hold a Queen's Speech - an outline of the government's legislative agenda. The votes on the Queen's Speech will be held on the 21st and 22nd October, with amendments possible only on these days. Under this schedule, the UK Parliament has just under a week in early September followed by just over a week in late October to prevent a no deal outcome. In practical terms, this schedule limits the ability of MPs to take a legislative route to block a no deal Brexit. [more]
June 25, 2019
Analyst:
7
For the first time ever the Fed is undertaking a thorough academic review of its policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. The reviewers are some 30 academic experts on monetary policy and macroeconomics. Listen to Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, discussing the background to the review, the low-rate monetary policy and what a downturn could mean for financial stability. [more]
May 15, 2019
12
Who pays when a tariff is imposed on an imported product? Formally, of course, it is the importer that is assessed the tariff. But if the exporter has lowered her price, the tariff-inclusive price may not be higher than the prevailing price before the tariff was introduced. [more]
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