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Emerging Markets Monthly: EM’s Inflection

May 10, 2018
Emerging Markets and the Global Economy in the Month Ahead: The source of the recent correction is benign: a repricing of US growth with the EU still poised to grow above potential. With few exceptions (such as Turkey and Argentina) EM inflation remains mostly near or below targets so that forex (FX) weakness is unlikely to trigger meaningful CB responses that could disrupt EM growth – which has yet to catch up with DM. However, USD strength poses a more binding and direct risk of tighter credit conditions for EM than US yields. Still, we would need to see EUR/USD closer to 1.05 for credit conditions to bind. [more]

78 (25-36)
June 25, 2019
Analyst:
26
For the first time ever the Fed is undertaking a thorough academic review of its policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. The reviewers are some 30 academic experts on monetary policy and macroeconomics. Listen to Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, discussing the background to the review, the low-rate monetary policy and what a downturn could mean for financial stability. [more]
May 15, 2019
31
Who pays when a tariff is imposed on an imported product? Formally, of course, it is the importer that is assessed the tariff. But if the exporter has lowered her price, the tariff-inclusive price may not be higher than the prevailing price before the tariff was introduced. [more]
May 8, 2019
32
China's USD 12-trillion stock market is a vast and complicated panoply of different share types across a wide variety of markets, exchanges and share classes. With the rising role of A-shares amongst international emerging markets (EM) indices, understanding the market dynamics of China's equity markets will be increasingly critical, as Chinese equities are set to become an increasing proportion of the global opportunity set, driven by their increasing role in EM equities. Deutsche Bank’s research team looks at the distinguishing features of China's onshore and offshore markets. [more]
April 4, 2019
Analyst:
36
April 1 marked an important milestone for China’s financial markets, as Chinese Yuan-denominated bonds are to be included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. According to Bloomberg, the index will include over 360 eligible bonds, with a c.6% weight, making it the fourth-largest currency component in the index, after the USD, the EUR and the JPY, and the inclusion will take place over a 20-month period. [more]
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