1. Research
  2. Products & Topics
  3. Region
  4. Global

The House View : Don’t dismiss inflation

April 25, 2017
Analyst:
Politics remain a key focus for markets, but the latest developments in Europe are positive. In France, the first round of the presidential election ruled out the least market-friendly ‎outcome, and although eurosceptic Marine Le Pen is in the run-off as expected, polls suggest reformist Macron should win. The snap election called in Britain for June is a material positive game-changer for Brexit negotiations. Beyond politics, focus has been on fading conviction in so-called Trump trades – higher inflation expectations and interest rates and buoyant risk assets – following speed bumps on the US domestic agenda and increased geopolitical tension. But with global macro momentum solid – though off recent highs – and global growth expected to pick-up next year and approach 4% in 2018, do not dismiss inflation risks, especially in the US. Indeed the macro backdrop comforts the view that we are past peak central bank easing. The Fed will likely raise rates twice more this year and announce the start of the unwind of its balance sheet. The ECB is on track to announce a taper of its quantitative easing programme later this year, but the tone at the April meeting should still be quite cautious. We have revisited our currency views. The snap UK election caused us to increase our sterling forecast but did not alter our medium-term bearish stance. We still expect the euro to break parity but the sequencing of the ECB's tightening policies is key: a shift toward rate rises rather than a withdrawal of quantitative easing would be bullish for the euro. In rates, we expect bond yields to climb beyond near-term election risk. In credit we expect the low default environment to persist. We see valid counters to the consensus view that European equities should outperform US equities. David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist Key pages this month: P6 French election updateP7 UK snap electionP10 Fading Trump tradesP11 Don’t dismiss inflationP19 Updated views on sterling and euro [more]

More documents about "International"

185 (169-180)
July 30, 2009
169
Some years prior to the crisis, abundant global liquidity and investors’ strong risk appetite boosted asset prices to very high levels. The state of the global economy and financial markets deteriorated dramatically when the subprime crisis turned into a full-blown global banking and economic crisis. Central banks around the world were forced to inject extra liquidity to support the banking sector, the credit channel and the overall economy. Despite the presence of global excess liquidity short and medium-term risks to CPI inflation appear to be limited because of low capacity utilisation and rising unemployment. However, excess liquidity could still potentially stoke new asset price bubbles. Central banks are aware of this risk and are at the moment preparing post-crisis exit strategies from their current accommodative monetary policy stance. [more]
June 15, 2009
171
The ongoing global financial crisis, with its historic dimensions, will have a lasting impact on the banking sector. It will become a less "fashionable" and even more heavily regulated industry with greater state involvement, increased investor scrutiny and substantially higher capital levels. This will lead to lower growth, lower profits and lower volatility for banks than during the past few decades – a trend that is exacerbated by the expected lack of major growth drivers, at least for some time. [more]
June 4, 2009
172
Ever since the global financial crisis spilled over to the real economy, the WTO and the World Bank have reported huge increases in protectionist measures, including non-tariff barriers to trade and the abuse of anti-dumping measures, subsidisation of national industries or, very lately, calls to favour domestic products and companies, and restrictions on international capital flows or immigration. These factors threaten to unleash a spiral of protectionism that perhaps may not choke off the global recovery, but it will partly delay its progress. Therefore, shoring up open markets and free trade is the next major challenge in a globally coordinated drive to cope with the crisis. [more]
November 28, 2008
174
The Asian crisis 1997/98, the launch of the euro in 1999 and the global financial crisis 2007/8 have stimulated monetary cooperation in East Asia and debate about an Asian Monetary Union (AMU). The success story of the euro can serve as a role model but special features in East Asia have to be taken into account. Given the current heterogeneity of Asian countries the exchange rate orientation will remain dominated by a mixture of dollar-pegged and (managed) floating schemes for the time being. The introduction of a single currency requires strong political will as well as the building of institutions, a legal framework and trust. Therefore, it is likely to take at least another two decades before AMU can be launched. [more]
October 22, 2008
Analyst:
176
Sovereign wealth funds are headed for a new state of normality and set to be recognised as institutional investors like many others. With their commitment to the Santiago Principles on greater transparency and robust governance, they have made a strong and credible commitment to financial objectives. Their important and constructive role as investors during the financial crisis has earned them additional credibility. Eyes are now on the recipient countries to present guidelines for open and more uniform investment conditions. Policy efforts should focus on bringing OECD guidelines to fruition, and ensuring that they are adhered to worldwide. [more]
April 11, 2008
177
Climate change constitutes a challenge for the global tourism industry. The result will be regional and seasonal shifts in tourist flows. There will therefore be winners and losers. The Mediterranean region will be one of the losers, while – among others – Denmark, Germany, the Benelux countries and the Baltic states may benefit. The impact of negative climate developments will be particularly strong if climate-sensitive tourism has major economic significance. In Europe this applies to Malta, Cyprus, Spain, Austria and Greece. At a global level, however, the tourism business will remain a growth sector. [more]
February 14, 2008
178
After four years of above-average growth the global economy is clearly slowing down. The US housing recession and high oil prices are dampening global economic growth, even though the substantial USD depreciation of the last two years, decisive and timely Fed action and the USD 150 bn fiscal package will prevent a US recession. Due to robust domestic demand and solid current account surpluses in many cases the emerging markets – contrary to previous shocks – are providing an element of stabilisation. Europe will be affected by the US slowdown with a lag while the strong currency continues to be a drag. [more]
July 27, 2007
179
The US current account has swelled to USD 811 bn, or 6.1% of GDP, at the last count. We do not believe that a deficit of this magnitude is sustainable in the long term. A reduction of the international imbalances still need not take place abruptly. After all, the US current account deficit is also the upshot of investment decisions in the surplus countries. A strengthening of domestic demand in Asia and stronger diversification efforts in the oil-producing countries aimed at reducing their reliance on oil revenues suggest that less capital will flow to the USA. The still fast-expanding trade in services also points to an improvement in the US current account in the longer term. Here, the USA is a frontrunner, which gives it a competitive edge. [more]
May 29, 2007
180
Global liquidity has become abundant over the past few years mainly owing to extremely accommodative monetary policies in the US, Euroland and Japan. Since this liquidity "glut" has barely shown up in consumer price inflation, it has likely contributed to asset price inflation. There are basically two scenarios for how global "excess" liquidity could be cut back over the medium to long term: (1) continued global monetary tightening or at least no monetary easing soon and (2) global nominal GDP expanding faster than the money stock over time. [more]
6.9.4