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2016 GDP growth: External headwinds domestic tailwinds

March 3, 2016
Region:
Despite the challenging environment German exporters gained global market share in 2015. The year 2016 has not got off to an auspicious start, however. Our new “Export Indicator” points to a double whammy for German exports in 2016. The less favourable outlook for the demand and especially for the exchange rate impact looks set to slow export growth to around 3% in 2016. When analysing German exports, it is worth looking at sector-specific factors as they can play an even more important role than the macroeconomic environment. Overall, German industry faces a challenging year for exports. Further topics in this issue: House prices: Imminent return to normal, overvaluation likely; GDP growth 2016: More domestically driven & facing more downside risks; Merkel likely to weather even weak state election results. [more]

More documents from Oliver Rakau

43 (37-43)
October 31, 2013
Region:
37
Recently, the labour market has been marked by rising unemployment alongside a sustained increase in overall employment. The surprisingly strong increase in unemployment in September was reported by some newspapers as a "stalling German jobs miracle". The labour market upswing is still intact. Leading indicators suggest that the increase in employment is likely to accelerate again towards year-end. We expect the number of persons in employment to rise by 230,000 to a record high of 42.3 million in 2014. [more]
October 1, 2013
Region:
38
After the strong showing of the conservatives in the federal elections, Germany is moving in big steps towards a centrist coalition government consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD. There are at least three reasons for this course of action: the "energy turnaround", the renegotiation of fiscal federalism and banking policy, all call for a tight coordination between the federal level and the 16 states, nine of which are governed by SPD-led coalitions. Up-coming decisions in euro area management would benefit from a solid majority in the parliament, too. The CDU/CSU will have to provide substantial concessions to the SPD to make it happen. We expect this to happen. [more]
September 3, 2013
Region:
39
We have lifted our forecast for 2013 GDP growth in Germany from 0.1% to 0.5%. This is not based on a more bullish assessment of H2's growth dynamics, though. Our call results instead from the growth surge due to one-off effects in Q2 (0.7% yoy) and from revisions to the 2012 performance as these produced a smaller statistical underhang and thus lead to a higher annual average for 2013. [more]
July 31, 2013
Region:
40
In this issue we look at two structural aspects of the German economy which provide speed limiters for GDP growth. The first is the interplay of foreign and domestic demand with implications for the current cyclical forecast. The second is the demographic implications for German labour supply which will be the biggest bottleneck for the economy’s long term growth potential. [more]
June 4, 2013
Region:
41
Before the global financial and economic crisis erupted central bankers were considered if not the masters of the universe at least the masters of the world of finance. However, serious problems have emerged with regard to both the theoretical underpinnings of monetary policy as well as to its implementation. As the roles of the financial sector and asset bubbles had been neglected, the problems contributed to the development of the global financial crisis. <p> [more]
April 30, 2013
Region:
42
Over the past few days sentiment has brightened considerably in Germany, and there are even signs of euphoria in some places – Munich and Dortmund in particular. But unlike Germany's two Champions League semi-finalists the economic releases of late have been a sobering disappointment following the encouraging data at the start of the year. For this reason we have slightly lifted our forecast for German Q1 GDP growth from 0.1% qoq to 0.3%. At the same time, though, we cut our expectations for Q2 from 0.4% to 0.2%. On balance this leaves the annual average unchanged at 0.3%. [more]
March 1, 2013
Region:
43
There is much to suggest that the economy returned to a growth path – albeit only a modest one – in the first quarter after a 0.6% contraction of real GDP in the closing quarter of 2012. New order intake and industrial output had already begun to pick up in December, so there was a growth overhang in production from the outset in Q1. Besides, business sentiment had already started to brighten four months ago. [more]
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