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Acyclical inflation: What is down must come up?

March 7, 2018
Inflation data over the past year – and especially over the past week – have highlighted a critical point. Fluctuations in inflation rates for items that are typically insensitive to the busi-ness cycle — which we refer to as acyclical, such as health care and apparel — can drive the overall inflation trajectory and lead to regime shifts in the market’s inflation narrative. The plunge in wireless telephone services prices last March, followed by a string of downside surprises to other acyclical items, spawned a narrative that structural disinflationary forces would prevent inflation from rising. In the same way, recent stronger inflation data led by acyclical items may have revived the narrative that the Phillips curve is, in fact, alive and well and that risks are tilted toward inflation overshooting the Fed’s target. [more]

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September 23, 2019
27
Jim Reid, Global Head of Thematic Research & Credit Research, Deutsche Bank Research has just published his annual Long-Term Asset Return Study. This year's focus is on the History and Future of Debt. The report also have all the usual long-term returns data for dozens of countries across different asset classes tracked back over more than a century for many series. [more]
September 2, 2019
Region:
29
The government will hold a Queen's Speech - an outline of the government's legislative agenda. The votes on the Queen's Speech will be held on the 21st and 22nd October, with amendments possible only on these days. Under this schedule, the UK Parliament has just under a week in early September followed by just over a week in late October to prevent a no deal outcome. In practical terms, this schedule limits the ability of MPs to take a legislative route to block a no deal Brexit. [more]
June 25, 2019
Analyst:
31
For the first time ever the Fed is undertaking a thorough academic review of its policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. The reviewers are some 30 academic experts on monetary policy and macroeconomics. Listen to Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, discussing the background to the review, the low-rate monetary policy and what a downturn could mean for financial stability. [more]
May 15, 2019
36
Who pays when a tariff is imposed on an imported product? Formally, of course, it is the importer that is assessed the tariff. But if the exporter has lowered her price, the tariff-inclusive price may not be higher than the prevailing price before the tariff was introduced. [more]
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