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Demography and the global economy – “continental” drift is well underway

September 25, 2015
Continental drift is slow, takes place almost imperceptibly and ends up having dramatic effects in the long run. In this, it is very similar to demographic change. Let us begin with a few facts. The world’s population is set to grow from 7.3 bn today to more than 9.7 bn by 2050. By comparison, the world’s population was a mere 2.5 bn in 1950. The regional (continental) demographic balance has been shifting for quite some time. In 1950, four of the ten largest countries were European (Germany, Italy, USSR, UK). Today, only Russia, ironically the country with the most adverse demographics, ranks among the top-10. In 1950, the big European four made up 10% of the world’s population. This figure has dropped to 5% today and will continue to decline for the foreseeable future. The populations of Africa and Asia will continue to increase significantly – and dramatically so in Africa – over the next few decades (chart). Admittedly, the aggregate increase hides significant intra-regional differences (e.g. East versus South Asia). [more]

More documents about "International"

88 (85-88)
March 20, 2006
85
Life expectancy and health spending have been increasing for decades the world over. This life extension trend is an important engine of growth: investment in education brings higher returns; lower mortality raises population growth. However, the speed and impact of the trend cluster are still underestimated: forecasts of life expectancy and the size of the health sector are probably still too low - making the need for adjustment in the political and business community greater than many people have thought. [more]
August 1, 2005
86
Human capital is the most important factor of production in today's economies - and education is an investment that generates higher incomes in future. The growth stars of the coming years identified in our introductory study base their success on major gains in human capital. The success stories of Spain and South Korea show that political changes can have a lasting impact on human capital. [more]
March 23, 2005
87
Substantiated, long-run growth forecasts are in the limelight following the New Economy disappointments and repeated crises in the emerging markets. With the help of "Formel-G", we identify the sources of economic long-term growth and generate forecasts for 34 economies until 2020. India, Malaysia and China will post the highest GDP growth rates over 2006-20 according to our "Formel-G" approach. Strong population growth, a rapid improvement in human capital and increasing trade with other countries allow average GDP growth of more than 5% per year in these three countries. Ireland, the USA and Spain are the OECD economies expected to grow most quickly. [more]
August 1, 2002
Analyst:
88
The internet presents new challenges in taxation. The imposition of a turnover tax on e-commerce is hampered by the difficulties involved in identifying the consumer. It is nearly impossible to apply the destination principle, which is standard practice internationally. In the taxation of profits, international companies might obtain new scope for optimising their tax burden. Both aspects may lead to erosion of the tax base. At present, however, the volume of e-commerce is still too small to trigger serious fiscal problems. [more]
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