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Global banking trends after the crisis

June 15, 2009
The ongoing global financial crisis, with its historic dimensions, will have a lasting impact on the banking sector. It will become a less "fashionable" and even more heavily regulated industry with greater state involvement, increased investor scrutiny and substantially higher capital levels. This will lead to lower growth, lower profits and lower volatility for banks than during the past few decades – a trend that is exacerbated by the expected lack of major growth drivers, at least for some time. [more]

More documents contained in "EU Monitor"

94 (85-94)
August 2, 2010
Region:
Analyst:
85
Financial market size: Traditional centres lose market shares, emerging markets up-and-coming. US and EU financial markets continue to provide around three-quarters of global financial services, albeit, after the crisis, at substantially lower overall levels of market activity in many market segments. Emerging financial markets, especially in Asia, have grown strongly in past years and are set to accelerate their catch-up process. [more]
July 12, 2010
Region:
86
The euro-area countries urgently need to slash their debt and they will have to find new ways to address this task in the process. Germany’s debt brake is an intelligent concept for achieving a long-term reduction in public debt that could also be remodelled to fit the conditions in other euro countries. National debt brakes could help cut public debt on a long-term horizon without jeopardising the growth prospects of the euro-area economies. [more]
June 22, 2009
Region:
Analyst:
87
Five years after the Ecofin Council reached agreement on the Savings Taxation Directive, the European Commission has submitted a proposal on its extension. The prevailing political climate for more cooperation and exchange of information between the States has improved significantly in recent months. A flurry of new bilateral agreements, initiatives at OECD level and further EU proposals for directives underscore the momentum that has gathered here. Negotiations on amendment of the Savings Taxation Directive will presumably not drag on again. [more]
June 4, 2009
88
Ever since the global financial crisis spilled over to the real economy, the WTO and the World Bank have reported huge increases in protectionist measures, including non-tariff barriers to trade and the abuse of anti-dumping measures, subsidisation of national industries or, very lately, calls to favour domestic products and companies, and restrictions on international capital flows or immigration. These factors threaten to unleash a spiral of protectionism that perhaps may not choke off the global recovery, but it will partly delay its progress. Therefore, shoring up open markets and free trade is the next major challenge in a globally coordinated drive to cope with the crisis. [more]
May 12, 2009
Region:
89
On May 1, 2004 the European Union was enlarged by ten new Member States. Their political and economic integration brought growth in trade, economic output and employment – but also in economic connectivity and mutual interdependence. As a result, the global economic and financial crisis has triggered serious economic slumps in some of the new EU members. It is now time to take initial stock of integration and turn to consideration of the outstanding issues. [more]
November 28, 2008
90
The Asian crisis 1997/98, the launch of the euro in 1999 and the global financial crisis 2007/8 have stimulated monetary cooperation in East Asia and debate about an Asian Monetary Union (AMU). The success story of the euro can serve as a role model but special features in East Asia have to be taken into account. Given the current heterogeneity of Asian countries the exchange rate orientation will remain dominated by a mixture of dollar-pegged and (managed) floating schemes for the time being. The introduction of a single currency requires strong political will as well as the building of institutions, a legal framework and trust. Therefore, it is likely to take at least another two decades before AMU can be launched. [more]
October 22, 2008
Analyst:
91
Sovereign wealth funds are headed for a new state of normality and set to be recognised as institutional investors like many others. With their commitment to the Santiago Principles on greater transparency and robust governance, they have made a strong and credible commitment to financial objectives. Their important and constructive role as investors during the financial crisis has earned them additional credibility. Eyes are now on the recipient countries to present guidelines for open and more uniform investment conditions. Policy efforts should focus on bringing OECD guidelines to fruition, and ensuring that they are adhered to worldwide. [more]
July 23, 2008
Region:
92
The euro was launched with great expectations in 1999 and is a success story today. This is based on a high degree of price stability, the stimulation of trade and investment in Europe, good progress in financial market integration, and a growing international role played by the euro. But there have been disappointments, too, especially as far as growth and EMU enlargement are concerned. The monetary union faces major challenges as it enters its second decade. The distortion of competitive positions within EMU needs to be corrected. And the reformed stability pact still has to stand the test in conditions of weak growth. [more]
April 22, 2008
Region:
93
Recent market turmoil and its consequences will negatively impact the earnings of European banks for a considerable time. This reverses a long period of improvements in profitability and efficiency. But: the current environment should not distract from the trends that have favourably shaped the structure of the industry for the last 10 years and will continue to do so: consolidation, internationalisation, convergence and increasing specialisation. In this study, we consider to what extent these trends are going to further shape the banking sector in the foreseeable future. [more]
June 16, 2006
Region:
94
Neither theory nor empirical observations can justify an interventionist industrial policy. Under the euphemism of economic patriotism, a policy based mainly on protectionist measures and state support will ultimately harm the competitiveness of affected industries. Such an approach threatens the viability of the single European market. A more promising alternative would be an economic policy that offers growth-enhancing framework conditions to create an attractive environment for domestic firms and foreign investors alike. [more]
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