DB Research - Economic and European Policy Issues -

Megatopic Germany

Germany – like most of the countries around the world – faces major challenges on account of the global financial and economic crisis. In addition, Germans go to the polls this year to elect a new government that will have to take pivotal decisions (on reforms) for Germany during the upcoming parliamentary term. In this series of articles DB Research will cover the broad spectrum of issues leading up to and following the general election and point out different policy options available to business and political leaders.

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06.09.2010

Germany: Only modest decline in the current account surplus

Abstract:	The German export momentum is currently benefiting from extremely dynamic world trade. However, it is likely to ease significantly in H2 2010 and above all in 2011. In addition to the impact of this cyclical development the highly export-dependent German economy is also being hit by the adjustments in Europe’s crisis-ridden countries, even though the strain on the German current account is likely to remain within bounds. Nevertheless, in the medium term Germany’s large current account surplus needs to be reduced, as the origins of the crisis lay in undesirable structural developments on both sides, that is not only in current account deficits, but also in the reciprocal surpluses. All in all, we expect that the German current account surplus will first widen from 5.0% to 5 ½% of GDP this year, before narrowing slowly, however. In 2012 it could then stand at 4 ½%.
Topics:	Economic growth; Germany; Macroeconomics; Megatopics; Real econ. trends; Trade

395k

30.08.2010

Our country has innovative minds! Curtain up ...

Abstract:	Germany is one of the most knowledge-intensive and innovative countries on Earth. In this study we focus on the innovative performance of its sixteen federal states with reference to eight indicators. The most innovative states lie in the south, while the east trails in terms of absolute levels. However, interdisciplinarity and regional industrial diversity cushion negative effects of structural change on the regions and offer alternative sources of sustained economic growth. Looking at the dynamic of innovation it is apparent that the states in the east of Germany – spearheaded by Saxony – are on the right course.
Topics:	Demographics; Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic trends; Education; Germany; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Megatopics; SMEs

1948k

24.08.2010

The pirate inside us: In the depths of copyright

Abstract:	The rising tide of information available on the internet is altering our requirements and our consumption habits. This is impacting the music and film industries, as well as the computer games and digital book markets. After all, many consumers simply download digital content onto their computers. The majority of files downloaded from the internet are pirated copies since they infringe copyright. Do traditional intellectual property rights hinder or help creative minds and thus innovation online? Can free licensing models be an alternative to traditional copyright and help to broaden the knowledge commons with greater creative freedom?
Topics:	Digital economy; E-commerce; Economic policy; eResearch; Germany; Germany 2020; Information technology; Internet; Macroeconomics; Megatopics; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Strategic foresight

391k

21.07.2010

Germany’s austerity package and the federal budget: Growth-compatible

Abstract:	On June 7 the German government presented the key points of a budget consolidation package which foresees total relief of about EUR 82 bn in the next four years.
Topics:	Economic policy; Energy policy; Fiscal policy; Germany; Megatopics; Social policy; Tax policy

332k

19.07.2010

A European Private Company: Is Europe’s single legal form for SMEs close to approval?

Abstract:	German SMEs wanting to do business in other EU states are virtually unable to set up subsidiaries there in the form of a German private limited company (GmbH). Potential clients are wary of foreign legal forms; they are afraid of dealing with mailbox firms. This is why companies normally choose a legal form typical of the location (such as the S.à r.l. in France or the Sp. z o.o. in Poland). As a result, the companies incur not inconsiderable costs for legal advice, as they seldom possess detailed knowledge about legal forms of business organisation abroad. ...
Topics:	Economic policy; European integration; European issues; European policy issues; Germany; Megatopics; SMEs

347k

22.06.2010

Sustainable growth thanks to stronger domestic demand

Abstract:	Since the start of the decade Germany has registered a current account surplus every year. Moderation in wage negotiations has made German industry increasingly competitive and led to a current account surplus of nearly 8% of GDP in boom year 2007 – a higher surplus than in at least any of the last 30 years. Germany is considered to be among the countries with the greatest trade openness and boasts the second highest merchandise exports in the world.
Topics:	Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Megatopics

265k

04.06.2010

German economy (still) churning along nicely

Abstract:	Unlike public-sector finances and the euro financial markets, Germany’s economy is currently working like clockwork. Real GDP was up 0.2% qoq in Q1 despite what were at times extreme weather conditions. Growth continued to be driven, above all, by exports and the simultaneous rise in investment in plant and equipment. Contributions to growth came from inventory build-up and public consumption, while private consumption and construction investment shrank. For the first time in five quarters, economic growth was higher in a year-over-year comparison (+1.7%).
Topics:	Capital markets; Construction industry; Economic growth; Exchange rates; Germany; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Megatopics; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Trade

297k

02.06.2010

German industry benefits unevenly from global upswing

Abstract:	In the first part of the following report we will analyse the recent recession in German industry. In the second part we will take a closer look at the prospects of the manufacturing sector for the next 1-2 years. We will show, which sectors will recover faster and which will be lagging behind. We will focus particularly on the effects of the differing economic momentum in important export markets on the recovery process in the relevant sectors.
Topics:	Auto industry; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Electrical engineering; Germany; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Megatopics; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry

246k

26.02.2010

Pensions in a post-crisis world: Fully-funded provision is vital

Abstract:	Fully-funded retirement pension systems have withstood the stress test of the financial and economic crisis better than many doom-mongers were still prophesying at the beginning of 2009. Recent experiences do not therefore argue against building up retirement assets. Modern pension provision requires an element of variety in private retirement products to suit people’s diverse needs. With occupational pension schemes, in the aftermath of the crisis the international trend away from comprehensive defined-benefit pension plans and towards defined-contribution schemes is likely to be accentuated. Savers must assume more personal responsibility for their retirement provision. Against this backdrop it is important to achieve a sustained improvement in people’s financial literacy.
Topics:	Demographics; Economic policy; Germany; International financial markets; International financial system; Macroeconomics; Megatopics; Provision for old age

555k

30.07.2009

Norbert Walter: Roll up your sleeves and look to the future

Abstract:	There are signs that the German economy is finding a floor; recent data are giving reason for hope. Nonetheless, though, we should not expect a sustained upswing: looming job cuts and weak foreign demand will continue to weigh on the economy. Only committed participation in societal reforms and fresh ways of thinking can help the German economy return to a sustainable growth path...
Topics:	Economic growth; Economic trends; Germany; Social values / Consumer behaviour

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