Megatopic Global growth centres -

Megatopic Global growth centres

Substantiated, long-run growth forecasts are back in the limelight following the New Economy euphoria and the emerging market crises over the past 10 years. Deutsche Bank Research uses an innovative combination of modern growth theory, state-of-the-art quantitative techniques and systematic trend analysis to analyse the long-run growth perspectives of 34 economies. We identify growth stars, explain the reasons for their success and derive conclusions for companies, investors and policy-makers.

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01.09.2010

Understanding China’s consumers

Abstract:	The goal of this study is to shed light on Chinese consumers’ evolution and behaviour as well as on the composition of this heterogeneous group. China’s urban consumers are growing in number and in spending power, and their outlook is promising. On the other hand, the potential of rural consumers must still be developed, and their income gap with the urban counterparts narrowed. Policies to support income growth, increase disposable income, and help households grow their wealth are starting to be implemented. These policies, coupled with China’s attractive long-term growth prospects, bode well for China’s consumers, who in a few decades could turn out to be the world economy’s key growth driver.
Topics:	Asia; Asia; Economic growth; Economic trends; Emerging markets; Global growth centres; Macroeconomics; Megatopics; Real econ. trends; Social values / Consumer behaviour

575k

16.07.2010

Yuan as a reserve currency: Likely prospects & possible implications

Abstract:	Following the creation of EMU, some observers predicted that the euro would emerge as the world’s major reserve currency. More recently, eurozone travails and rapidly rising US indebtedness have re-ignited the debate about alternative reserve currencies (incl. SDRs). Among the possible medium-term contenders for “top currency” status are the yuan and the euro. Neither the UK nor Switzerland, nor Japan, have or will have the necessary economic and financial size for their currencies to become the world’s dominant reserve currency. ...
Topics:	Asia; Emerging markets; EMU; European issues; Global growth centres; International financial system; Megatopics

488k

19.05.2010

STEM gingering up enrolment and funding issues at German higher education institutions – After 2008, what lies ahead?

Abstract:	With STEM not only gingering up the debates held over coffee, Germany’s students are also acquiring the taste. Actually, STEM is an acronym for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, and institutions of higher education have reported increasing enrolment in these subjects. Read on for more on the development of student tastes, graduate ratios and the challenges to be mastered in the transition to the knowledge society...
Topics:	Education; Germany 2020; Global growth centres; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Services; Socio-econ. trends; Strategic foresight; Women

102k

11.03.2010

World trade heading for double-digit growth in 2010

Abstract:	World trade is still showing a mixed recovery after collapsing by nearly 13% in 2009. The emerging markets have seen external trade pick up strongly and in some cases rapidly, unlike the developed economies. In a few instances, the export performance of emerging markets is close or above the pre-crisis levels...
Topics:	Economic growth; Global growth centres; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Trade

90k

16.03.2009

China's financial markets - a future global force?

Abstract:	China’s financial markets have enjoyed a period of strong growth since the early 1990s and China’s share in global financial markets is set to continue its growth in future years. However, it would be unrealistic to expect China to emerge unscathed from the global recession. All the more, granting greater market access to foreign financials will be a vital prerequisite for sustained development, and greater integration and regulatory convergence efforts, especially with the US and the EU, should be key policy objectives.
Topics:	Asia; Capital markets; Capital markets policy; Economic policy; Economic trends; Emerging markets; European policy issues; Global growth centres; Globalisation; Intern. economic system; Intern. relations; International financial markets; International financial system; Macroeconomics; Megatopics; Real econ. trends; Supervision and regulation

873k

27.02.2009

And the Innovation Oscar 2008 goes to...

Abstract:	“Who invented it? The Swiss!” This is probably one of the best-known commercials in the world. And not only the Swiss company that makes “Ricola” herb drops, but everybody in Switzerland participating in the process of innovation deserves a mention here. Companies and investors, politicians and those involved in education and even individual economic agents all seem to pull together to create an innovation-friendly environment in Switzerland...
Topics:	Economic growth; Economic trends; EU enlargement; European policy issues; Germany; Global growth centres; Globalisation; Labour market; Real econ. trends; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Strategic foresight

19.08.2008

Growth? Cycle? What really matters.

Abstract:	Will exports cease to be a driver of German growth in 2008? Will the US economy lose consumption as its engine of growth? And will the Spanish growth story end now that the construction sector is sliding into recession there? All of these questions have one thing in common: they mix up questions about growth with questions about the business cycle. This is not helpful when trying to identify the really relevant issues that need to be discussed and the appropriate policy action to be taken...
Topics:	Demographics; Economic growth; Education; Global growth centres; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Real econ. trends; Social values / Consumer behaviour

24.07.2008

South Korea: The quest to stay a high-performing OECD economy

Abstract:	South Korea’s medium- to long-term economic outlook is positive overall, despite unfavourable demographic trends. South Korea can mitigate the downside risks arising from its potentially shrinking population by enhancing the contribution from the other three main drivers of long-term growth, namely investment, human capital and openness. Progress in these areas will strengthen South Korea’s position as a growth star, particularly among its OECD peers, for many more years to come. In a hypothetical Korean unification scenario, although there would be an initial challenging adjustment period, long-term gains would be possible.
Topics:	Asia; Capital markets; Demographics; Economic growth; Education; Emerging markets; Global growth centres; Macroeconomics; Megatopics; Risk / Country Risk

297k

12.03.2008

Megacities: Boundless growth?

Abstract:	Over 3.3 billion people were city dwellers in 2007; for the first time ever, more people were living in urban areas than in rural areas. The trend is set to continue, driven by gains in agricultural productivity, strong growth of the world’s population and hopes of finding attractive jobs in cities. Real megacities are to be found especially in the developing countries and emerging markets of Asia and Africa. How much of an impact will these highly concentrated urban agglomerations have on our future and what challenges will have to be met?
Topics:	Africa; Asia; Cities; Construction industry; Demographics; Emerging markets; Energy sector; Environmental protection; Global growth centres; Housing policy; Macroeconomics; Megatopics; Real estate; Residential real estate; Sectors / commodities; Transport

418k

08.02.2008

GCC Chartbook - A visual essay

Topics:	Emerging markets; Energy sector; Global growth centres

540k

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