Emerging Markets / Country Risk
The Emerging Markets team analyses political and economic developments in Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Our focus is on structural, long-term trends as well as on the importance of emerging markets for global financial markets. As part of Global Risk Analysis we are Deutsche Bank's centre of competence for sovereign risk-related issues.
In focus
Demography and the global economy – “continental” drift is well underway
Continental drift is slow, takes place almost imperceptibly and ends up having dramatic effects in the long run. In this, it is very similar to demographic change. Let us begin with a few facts. The world’s population is set to grow from 7.3 bn today to more than 9.7 bn by 2050. By comparison, the world’s population was a mere 2.5 bn in 1950. The regional (continental) demographic balance has been shifting for quite some time. In 1950, four of the ten largest countries were European (Germany, Italy, USSR, UK). Today, only Russia, ironically the country with the most adverse demographics, ranks among the top-10. In 1950, the big European four made up 10% of the world’s population. This figure has dropped to 5% today and will continue to decline for the foreseeable future. The populations of Africa and Asia will continue to increase significantly – and dramatically so in Africa – over the next few decades (chart). Admittedly, the aggregate increase hides significant intra-regional differences (e.g. East versus South Asia). [more]
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