Talking point
Weather, calendar effects and world growth
The prerequisites for a substantial pick-up in US growth remain intact, which should subsequently provide tailwind for the emerging markets that are currently going through a rough patch. However, the inclement weather in the United States in the first quarter has kept the US economy from "taking off" to date. [more]
Hot off the press
Nigeria: The No. 1 African economy
Nigeria’s GDP rebasing makes the country the largest economy in Africa. The rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP – the change of the base year from 1990 to 2010 and the increase in the number of industries measured for GDP calculation – raises the size of the economy of Africa’s most populous nation by 75%. Following the rebasing Nigeria dethrones South Africa as the largest economy in Africa, albeit with a population more than three times larger. [more]
Global financial markets
Tight bank lending, lush bond market: New trends in European corporate bond issuance
In our empirical analysis we investigate the substitution between weak bank lending and lush bond markets and we show that rising bank CDS spreads are consistently associated with positive growth in securities underwriting and negative growth in loan syndication. This suggests that banks and clients switch funding instruments in times of financial stress. In this regard, a well-developed bond market is an important element to increase financial resilience as it offers an alternative source of funding for the real economy and an alternative source of revenue to banks. However, we also note a worrying trend towards financial fragmentation during times of stress which limits diversification potential.  [more]
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