Banking, Financial Markets and Regulation
Like the regulatory framework, the structure of the international financial markets influences the development of financial service providers and economies. Scenarios for the future development of the global financial market, and the related opportunities and risks, are a major part of the work of Deutsche Bank Research.
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European banking markets
Talking Point
Card fraud: A growing problem?
Card fraud in Europe has risen recently, both in absolute terms and relative to total transaction values for card payments. What is behind this increase and how much is it a cause for concern? [more]
Global financial markets
Tight bank lending, lush bond market: New trends in European corporate bond issuance
In our empirical analysis we investigate the substitution between weak bank lending and lush bond markets and we show that rising bank CDS spreads are consistently associated with positive growth in securities underwriting and negative growth in loan syndication. This suggests that banks and clients switch funding instruments in times of financial stress. In this regard, a well-developed bond market is an important element to increase financial resilience as it offers an alternative source of funding for the real economy and an alternative source of revenue to banks. However, we also note a worrying trend towards financial fragmentation during times of stress which limits diversification potential. [more]
Global financial markets
Bank funding of residential mortgages in the EU
The development of bank funding before and during the crisis has highlighted its importance for financial intermediation and credit provision in an economy. Given its importance for banks and households, mortgage finance is of particular importance here, not least with an eye to financial stability issues. This paper provides an overview of banks’ funding of residential mortgages in Europe, taking a close look at the structure of funding instruments and their potential effects on financial stability. [more]
In focus
Bank performance in the US and Europe: An ocean apart
Five years after the global financial crisis hit both the US and Europe, banks across the Atlantic are in very different shapes. US banks have returned to record profit levels, while their European peers are struggling to stay above the zero line at all. The differences are mainly driven by diverging trends in revenues, corporate lending growth and loan loss provisions all of which have developed much more favourably in America than in Europe. This may have been caused largely by three underlying factors: i) the better macroeconomic performance of the US, ii) European banks' less aggressive dealing with problematic legacy assets and their greater need to deleverage and shrink, and iii) differences in the institutional setup - in Europe at times triggering doubts over the very survival of the Monetary Union, in the US allowing the Fed to massively intervene in financial markets. As the US economic recovery gains strength and Europe emerges from the debt crisis and recession, banks face improvements on an operating level, with EU financial institutions likely to narrow but not close the gap to their US competitors. [more]
Talking point
CDS spreads widen under central clearing obligation
Among the agreed derivatives market reforms, the central clearing of OTC derivatives contracts has a pivotal role that changes the existing risk management and collateralisation practices tremendously. Nevertheless, to date, there is little empirical evidence on the impact of the new market infrastructure on CDS spreads. Controlling for a number of factors, our results indicate that the costs of central clearing seem to be passed on to end-users in the form of increased CDS spreads. [more]
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