Banking, Financial Markets and Regulation
Like the regulatory framework, the structure of the international financial markets influences the development of financial service providers and economies. Scenarios for the future development of the global financial market, and the related opportunities and risks, are a major part of the work of Deutsche Bank Research.
Talking point
The sun is shining again: European banks rebound
After literally seven lean years, the European banking industry’s recovery from the financial crisis is now in full swing. Profits are at their highest level since 2007, revenues are growing across the board (helped by favourable currency effects) and loan losses are falling. Banks are also expanding business volumes. Capital ratios are on average substantially above Basel III requirements, though uncertainty has increased recently due to a pending further regulatory tightening (“Basel IV”). [more]
Global financial markets
Capital Markets Union: An ambitious goal, but few quick wins
The creation of a European Capital Markets Union (CMU) aims to establishing a single market for capital to complement bank financing. In this paper, we make a quantitative assessment of the European stock, bond and securitisation markets to look at the CMU’s potential. Our results reveal that liquidity and IPO trends in European stock markets are similar to those in the US. However, market integration has slowed down in recent years, which the CMU could counter by harmonising company, securities and insolvency laws. European corporate bond markets have become a notable alternative to bank lending but their investor base remains restricted, which the CMU should address. The securitisation market in Europe has performed well throughout the crises and its revival is a sine qua non for lending to regain traction, especially to SMEs. The CMU should thus target a less punitive regulatory treatment for this market segment. [more]
Research Briefing
German bank lending: Market share developments in individual sectors
In German corporate lending business, the role played by the different banking groups varies considerably between individual industries. For instance, a relatively large share of loans to the manufacturing sector – and particularly the "core" of German industry, mechanical engineering and automotives – is provided by commercial banks. Lending to construction and agricultural firms, on the other hand, is dominated by savings banks and cooperative banks. The retail banks have also gained significant ground in the services sector over the past 10 years. Landesbanks have only two strongholds, utilities/mining and transport. [more]
Corporate funding in Germany
Monitor Corporate funding in Germany
Following a strong start to the year, lending to German corporates and self-employed grew only modestly in Q2 2015 (+0.2% qoq). Most core manufacturing industries performed well, whereas loans to the metal industry, trade and transport disappointed. Domestic credit banks saw the biggest expansion in lending volumes, in contrast to Landesbanks which suffered a setback. Financing alternatives posted convincing results. Plus: Financial Market Special on market shares of banking groups in individual industries. The German economy continued on its growth path in Q2 (GDP +0.4% qoq). However, domestic demand slowed with both investments and private consumption lower than expected. Foreign trade stepped into the breach. The H2 outlook weakened somewhat, with growth drivers probably reversing again (available only in German). [more]
Chart in focus
Global financial markets
Deposit insurance in the Banking Union: Options for the third pillar
Reform of deposit guarantee schemes (DGS) in the EU has followed a gradual approach. The latest reform established common requirements on financing for national schemes but funds remain separate. The debate about the future of DGS has been revived recently, though. The five presidents' report on completing Europe's Economic and Monetary Union put DGS reform back into the larger reform discussion and identified deposit insurance as one of the areas of the Banking Union still pending completion. While joint deposit insurance may seem a rather long-term option, several short- and mid-term suggestions to complement DGS have been raised. They put an emphasis on adapting the current setup with a view to increase back-up financing capacity of individual schemes. Ideas include i) strengthening the network of DGS and possibilities for bilateral lending, ii) establishing a reinsurance scheme, iii) developing a common fiscal backstop to national DGS. [more]
Spotlight on Germany
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