Emerging Markets / Country Risk
The Emerging Markets team analyses political and economic developments in Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Our focus is on structural, long-term trends as well as on the importance of emerging markets for global financial markets. As part of Global Risk Analysis we are Deutsche Bank's centre of competence for sovereign risk-related issues.
In focus
China rebalancing: Blessing and curse for Latin America
China is undergoing a rebalancing of its growth model. In the process, real GDP growth has started to decline and the economy is gearing for a higher share of domestic consumption and services and a lower share of investment. As a consequence, the composition of Chinese commodity imports is likely to change, with a slowdown in the demand for base metals and oil for instance, and an increase in the demand for foodstuffs and natural gas. Latin American countries are among the top suppliers of commodities to China, and, in turn, China is a key market for them. Chile and Venezuela are the economies most exposed to China’s economic rebalancing given their concentration on copper and oil, respectively, while Uruguay is likely to benefit the most as a food exporter. [more]
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