Spotlight on Germany
With the sovereign debt crisis enveloping some parts of the euro area the financial markets have intensified their focus on Germany. Political decisions and trends in Europe's largest economy have a major impact on the progress of European integration. Much will also depend on how well Germany can maintain its economic strength. Thus, not only ground-breaking decisions for the euro and the European Union but also resolute reforms for sustainable growth are needed. Correspondingly, we cover a broad spectrum of issues: Deutsche Bank Research offers near-term analyses and comments on Germany's economic, fiscal and European policies, political trends, and the cyclical and sectoral outlook for German business.
Standpunkt Deutschland
The ECB must change course
Over the past century central banks have become the guardians of our economic and financial security. The Bundesbank and Federal Reserve are respected for achieving monetary stability, often in the face of political opposition. But central bankers can also lose the plot, usually by following the economic dogma of the day. When they do, their mistakes can be catastrophic.Today the behaviour of the European Central Bank suggests that it too has gone awry. After seven years of ever-looser monetary policy there is increasing evidence that following the current dogma, broad-based quantitative easing and negative interest rates, risks the long-term stability of the eurozone. [more]
Chart in focus
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Growth and fiscal outlook: Risks remain
We revise down our Q2 GDP growth forecast from 0.3% to 0.1% as we expect material payback for Q1 strength. While we remain optimistic with regards to the labour market, we think that the impetus from low oil prices to real incomes is fading. In addition, the mild winter has allowed construction work to be brought forward, albeit the payback might be limited by the strength of underlying construction demand. Given weak export sentiment, falling investment goods orders and lower capacity utilisation, we think investment in machinery & equipment is going to weigh on Q2 growth. We maintain our 2016 GDP forecast (1.7%), though. Despite spending on refugees, the German national budget generated a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 2015, the largest since 2000. However, the healthy short and medium-term fiscal outlook only marginally reduces the need for the reform of public finances. [more]
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