Spotlight on Germany
With the sovereign debt crisis enveloping some parts of the euro area the financial markets have intensified their focus on Germany. Political decisions and trends in Europe's largest economy have a major impact on the progress of European integration. Much will also depend on how well Germany can maintain its economic strength. Thus, not only ground-breaking decisions for the euro and the European Union but also resolute reforms for sustainable growth are needed. Correspondingly, we cover a broad spectrum of issues: Deutsche Bank Research offers near-term analyses and comments on Germany's economic, fiscal and European policies, political trends, and the cyclical and sectoral outlook for German business.
Standpunkt Deutschland
Influx of refugees: An opportunity for Germany
The influx of refugees has raised net immigration to Germany to the record level of more than one million. Among the OECD countries, this trend could put Germany ahead of the United States, traditionally the No. 1 destination country for migrants. As a result, Germany faces the difficult − and costly – Herculean task of integrating the refugees and absorbing the supply shock to the labour market. At the same time, the refugees represent an opportunity for rejuvenating an ageing population in Germany, where there is a growing scarcity of labour and the threat of lower structural growth. In our outlined win-win scenario, successful integration offers Germany the opportunity to consolidate its position as Europe’s economic powerhouse and to increase its attractiveness as an immigration country. A sustained high level of net immigration will attenuate the decline of the trend growth rate brought on by an ageing population. Instead of moving closer to stagnation, the trend growth could still amount to 1% in ten to 15 years as well, which would also benefit social systems. [more]
Chart in focus
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Solid growth but difficulties for exports and construction
According to our and consensus expectations Germany will record 4 years (2014-2017) of above potential GDP growth in an extremely narrow range of 1.5% to 1.7%, despite substantial shocks and massive swings in growth drivers. If growth breaks out, a downside move seems more likely than higher growth. The economic slowdown in the oil-producing countries due to the falling oil price also carries implications for the German economy in terms of its foreign trade. Although the overall effect is positive for the German economy, German exports to oil-producing countries remain under pressure. Capital spending on residential construction has been growing sluggishly in recent years. The main reasons are: a shortage of building land, increased regulatory hurdles in virtually all construction sectors, high construction costs and a lack of skilled workers in the construction industry. [more]
Latest articles on Germany
04.04.2016
German GDP growth; German exports to oil-producing countries; residential construction in Germany; View from Berlin.
03.03.2016
German exports; house prices; GDP growth; View from Berlin
28.01.2016
German GDP, Wage round in 2016, Chancellor Merkel's asylum policy
 
Germany
04.04.2016
German GDP growth; German exports to oil-producing countries; residential construction in Germany; View from Berlin.
03.03.2016
German exports; house prices; GDP growth; View from Berlin
28.01.2016
German GDP, Wage round in 2016, Chancellor Merkel's asylum policy
 
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