Real Estate
Analyses of the situation in the construction sector and studies on the real-estate market both in Germany as a whole and in selected centres in Germany and abroad.
German construction: Robust investment, but price momentum slowing
Scarcity of supply is the key attribute of the current German real estate cycle. It seems likely to persist in the years ahead. House prices still have the biggest potential in the real estate market. Completions are on the rise and construction investments should continue to grow strongly in 2014 and 2015. Construction investments should also rise in the public and the commercial sector...(go to p. 8) [more]
Talking Point
Outlook on the German housing market
In 2013, German house prices continued to increase at a rapid pace. On average, residential property prices gained more than 6% as apartment prices rose by more than 7%. Prices for single-family houses and terraced houses grew at nearly 5%. The price dynamics varied strongly. Among the 125 most important cities (BulwienGesa), twelve reported price increases exceeding 10%, compared to only seven cities in 2012, one in 2011, and none in 2010 and 2009. [more]
Misguided policy raises risk of housing bubble
Politicians should focus on an expansion of building activity in the major cities and conurbations in order to reduce the upside pressure on house prices. In the past few months there have been indications of easing activity in the construction sector. If this trend materialises, the pressure on house prices will intensify further. One possible cause of this development is capacity restrictions, and a lack of suitable skilled labour in the finishing trades in particular. An immigration law that specifically focuses on bottlenecks in the labour market could help to bring about some relief. If it becomes obvious over the next few months that construction growth is going to remain sluggish long term, rent control should not be implemented in the regions. [more]
Real Estate
Construction investment: Sharp increase expected, but focus on downside risks
Despite the unbroken upswing in the real estate market since 2009, construction investment has grown only moderately at around 3% per year. This corresponds to a relatively low price elasticity of only about ½, since prices have climbed by roughly 6% per year. This expansion of construction investment started from a low level. As a percentage of gross domestic product, German construction investment is relatively low both by historical and international standards. (go to page 5) [more]
Copyright © 2015 Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main