Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: 2% GDP growth in 2015 despite adverse employment policy
The details of the 0.4% qoq GDP increase released this week have not altered our GDP forecast of 1.5% for 2014. If anything, they have added to our suspicion that current surveys (corporate and consumer) might paint a too rosy picture. However, we have turned somewhat more optimistic with regard to 2015, increasing our GDP forecast from 1.4% to 2.0%. [more]
World Outlook
A leap back to trend growth
After a year of disappointingly sluggish growth, we project the globaleconomy to bounce back to a more trend-like rate of expansion in 2014.Major fiscal headwinds are scheduled to dissipate, and in most cases,central banks will keep their feet on the accelerator, boosting privatespending. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Can Hollande pull off a Schröder and will it work?
With the New Year came a new Hollande pledging to build a New France. Still, most of the announcements made in January by the French President merely confirmed a prudent policy inflexion which started last year. Hollande is counting on the solemnity of the speech, putting economic reforms more firmly on the French political agenda. But the reforms are likely to be slow, and the transition will be costly in terms of growth. This will weaken France's reserves of political energy for European reform for many years. Actually, the structural hurdles to reform are more firmly entrenched in France than in Germany 10 years ago. Thus the adjustment is likely to be slower to yield any meaningful results on potential growth than in the German experience and a meaningful structural re-convergence of the two countries will be slow. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2011 2012F 2013F
United States 1.8 2.8 1.9
Japan -0.4 1.4 1.5
Euroland 1.6 -0.6 -0.4
Germany 3.3 0.7 0.4
France 2.0 0.0 0.3
Italy 0.4 -2.4 -1.8
United Kingdom 1.1 0.3 1.8
Australia 2.6 3.6 2.4
Russia 4.3 3.4 1.3
China 9.3 7.7 7.7
Canada 2.5 1.7 2.0
India 6.6 4.7 3.9
Brazil 2.7 1.0 2.3
 
Global economy
The global economy in 2014 – Heading towards trend growth
Seven years after the onset of the global economic and financial crisis the global economy should start to post trend growth of 3 ½% to 4% again in 2014. Following several years in which hopes of an economic upturn have been dashed the interplay of five drivers may finally effect a turnaround for the eurozone economy. The growth is, however, likely to end up being a very modest 1% following a contraction of 0.4% in the current year on account of the deleveraging that still has to occur in the private sector and over the medium term also in the public sector [more]
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
The DBIX
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
Global Markets
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