Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Further disappointments
We have cut our German GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.3% for 2014 and further from 1.5% to 0.8% for 2015. We do not see Germany falling into a technical recession in Q3. But the 6 month slump of the ifo index has increased the risk that we might see a negative GDP print in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015. The positive effect of weaker oil prices will be offset by wage growth slowing from 3% plus this year towards 2% in 2015, as export-orientated sectors will respond to weaker external demand. Further topics in this issue: German industry: Temporary slowdown; German construction: Robust investment, but price momentum slowing; Inheritance tax: Constitutional Court ruling likely to weigh harder on business heirs; 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall: "Blooming landscapes" only in part. [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook - Global inflation subdued but resilient
Fear of inflation falling too low has become an issue gripping significant portions of the globe. While risks remain significant in some quarters—most notably in Europe—our analysis finds that on the whole global consumer price inflation remains resilient, even if still at a somewhat subdued level.The reasons for that resilience are threefold, including (1) longer-term inflation expectations that have been remarkably well anchored above recent inflation levels in the US and on the rise in Japan, (2) the efforts of major central banks that have been striving mightily, and we think ultimately successfully, to turn inflation around and raise it back to longer-term trend rates and more desired levels, and (3) prospects for a return to longer-term trend growth globally, with advanced economies growing fast enough to reduce their output gaps significantly ahead. [more]
Latest publications and articles
05.11.2014
German GDP, German industry, German construction, Inheritance tax, 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall
30.09.2014
GDP forecast 2015, Germany's fiscal position, Russia's gas supplies, Household investment behaviour
Talking point
Germany’s fiscal position – too good to last
At a time when there are increasing voices demanding a more flexible interpretation of the Maastricht deficit rules, German Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble has presented his budget plan, which does without any new federal debt between 2015 and 2018. This comes much to the chagrin of France, where his colleague Michel Sapin has been forced to admit that this year’s deficit will be at least 4.3% of GDP and that meeting the 3% target needs to be postponed for the third time until 2017 at the earliest. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Temporary immigration boom: A wake-up call for politicians?
Germany has become the No. 1 destination country for migrants in Europe again and No. 2 in the whole OECD after the United States. The turnaround reflects the crisis in the EMU periphery as well as the (postponed) opening of the German labour market to citizens from the 10 Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007. The higher immigration should only temporarily obscure the negative effects from the introduction of a minimum wage and the retirement wave triggered by the "pension at 63" option. Given the economic recovery in the eurozone periphery the present migration surge is unlikely to last and ageing Germany’s demand for labour from outside the EU will increase. Therefore, Germany needs to shape up to encourage more pull-based immigration. This requires a skills-oriented migration policy as well as more flexibility in the labour market and at the company level. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2013 2014F 2015F
United States 2.2 2.3 3.5
Japan 1.5 0.5 1.4
Euroland -0.4 0.7 0.8
Germany 0.1 1.3 0.8
France 0.4 0.4 0.7
Italy -1.9 -0.4 0.3
United Kingdom 1.7 3.1 2.5
Australia 2.3 3.1 2.7
Russia 1.3 0.5 -0.2
China 7.7 7.3 7.0
Canada 2.0 2.5 3.2
India 4.4 5.5 6.5
Brazil 2.5 0.2 0.9
 
Global economy
The global economy in 2014 – Heading towards trend growth
Seven years after the onset of the global economic and financial crisis the global economy should start to post trend growth of 3 ½% to 4% again in 2014. Following several years in which hopes of an economic upturn have been dashed the interplay of five drivers may finally effect a turnaround for the eurozone economy. The growth is, however, likely to end up being a very modest 1% following a contraction of 0.4% in the current year on account of the deleveraging that still has to occur in the private sector and over the medium term also in the public sector [more]
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
The DBIX
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
Global Markets
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