Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Low returns, political discontent – Germans explore riskier options
Against the backdrop of strong Q2 growth and the revision of historic data, we increase our GDP forecast for 2016 to 1.9% (from 1.7%). For 2017 we lower our growth forecast to 1.0% (from 1.3%). Muted wage growth will likely weigh on consumption growth and subdued exports as well as high global uncertainty might negatively impact equipment investments. Further topics in this issue: Fiscal balance, Current account surplus, Retail investors, German industry and View from Berlin. [more]
Talking Point
Growing doubts about negative interest rate policy
The debate about whether a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) helps or hinders the transmission mechanism of monetary policy continues to rage. The BIS and many others – including us – long ago issued warnings about throwing open the monetary floodgates and the side effects of negative central-bank interest rates, and now Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has also clearly rejected negative interest rates, despite using all the means at his disposal to prevent the UK economy from sliding into recession after the Brexit shock. The package of measures he launched in August significantly exceeded market expectations, but Carney has ruled out negative interest rates, referring to the adverse impact on the capital markets. [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook 2016 : Managing with less liquidity
The long-awaited turn toward the normalization of US monetary policy should finally get under way next week, with the Fed set to raise rates for the first time since 2006. In the year ahead, we could also see signals that the monetary spigots in Europe will begin to close as well. While such indications are probably more than a year away in Japan, we do not expect the BoJ to add to its asset purchases. In a world that has been awash with central bank liquidity for most of the past decade, the central question for the year ahead is how the global economy and financial markets will react as the tap on that liquidity begins to tighten. [more]
In Focus
Germany's massive current account surplus set to decline
EMU’s current account (CA) surplus has lent some support to the euro over the past two years at a time of relentless fixed income outflows. Germany is pivotal, as it accounts for 60% of the surplus. Since the rotation of fixed income assets out of Europe is likely to continue (‘Euroglut’) the balance of payments should therefore become even more bearish for the euro. The German surplus is likely to weaken by about 20% to 7% of GDP by the end of the decade due to unfavourable demographic trends, the housing boom and slowing globalisation. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2014 2015F 2016F
United States 2.4 2.6 1.3
Japan -0.1 0.6 0.6
Euroland 1.1 2.0 1.6
Germany 1.6 1.7 1.9
France 0.7 1.2 1.4
Italy -0.3 0.8 0.8
United Kingdom 3.1 2.2 1.7
Australia 2.7 2.5 3.1
Russia 0.7 -3.7 0.0
China 7.3 6.9 6.6
Canada 2.5 1.2 1.0
India 7.0 7.2 7.5
Brazil 0.1 -3.8 -3.1
 
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
The DBIX
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
The House View
Global Markets
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