Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Weaker recovery in H2
Economic growth probably suffered a worse setback in Q2 than initially presumed. We only expect stagnation now, but would no longer rule out a minimal decline. All in all, global economic conditions do not point to dynamic growth in H2. In particular, the tougher sanctions on Russia and the risk of further escalation of the conflict are set to weigh on business sentiment and investment activity in spite of Russia's low share in German exports. The debate triggered by ECB and Bundesbank comments about higher wage increases in Germany is likely to have a similar impact, even though the substance of the statements is less spectacular, on closer inspection, than the media hype. As uncertainties abound we have decided to refrain for now from making a downward revision to our full-year forecast of 1.8% GDP growth. [more]
World Outlook
The calm before the storm
A remarkable calm has settled over global financial markets in recent months, with volatility indicators testing new lows, interest rates surprisingly subdued in the face of strengthening employment and inflation data, and risk appetite showing impressive signs of growth. Equity markets continue a steady advance through new highs and credit spreads draw closer to new lows. Vast amounts of central bank liquidity and fair-weather guidance on the distant prospects for policy rate hikes have created this calm, even in the face of a bounce-back in US growth and inflation and a series of worrisome geopolitical developments. The calm cannot last indefinitely, and the question at hand is whether the clouds on the horizon portend merely a late-summer squall or a potentially far more damaging tempest. [more]
Talking point
German GDP growth: Only 1 ½% after all
People say that life is easier for optimists. However, this has not held true for forecasters of German economic growth for quite a while now. The good start into the year (Q1: +0.8 qoq) and the upbeat business and consumer sentiment back then had induced us in June to boost our full-year forecast from 1.5% to 1.8%. Nonetheless, we didn't relinquish our place at the lower end of the consensus, which in the meantime had climbed to 2%. If only we had kept our mouths shut! [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Temporary immigration boom: A wake-up call for politicians?
Germany has become the No. 1 destination country for migrants in Europe again and No. 2 in the whole OECD after the United States. The turnaround reflects the crisis in the EMU periphery as well as the (postponed) opening of the German labour market to citizens from the 10 Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007. The higher immigration should only temporarily obscure the negative effects from the introduction of a minimum wage and the retirement wave triggered by the "pension at 63" option. Given the economic recovery in the eurozone periphery the present migration surge is unlikely to last and ageing Germany’s demand for labour from outside the EU will increase. Therefore, Germany needs to shape up to encourage more pull-based immigration. This requires a skills-oriented migration policy as well as more flexibility in the labour market and at the company level. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2013 2014F 2015F
United States 2.2 2.2 3.3
Japan 1.5 1.2 1.3
Euroland -0.4 0.8 1.3
Germany 0.1 1.5 1.8
France 0.4 0.5 1.2
Italy -1.9 -0.1 1.0
United Kingdom 1.7 3.1 2.5
Australia 2.4 3.6 3.5
Russia 1.3 0.8 2.4
China 7.7 7.8 8.0
Canada 2.0 2.5 3.0
India 4.4 5.5 6.5
Brazil 2.5 0.9 1.2
 
Global economy
The global economy in 2014 – Heading towards trend growth
Seven years after the onset of the global economic and financial crisis the global economy should start to post trend growth of 3 ½% to 4% again in 2014. Following several years in which hopes of an economic upturn have been dashed the interplay of five drivers may finally effect a turnaround for the eurozone economy. The growth is, however, likely to end up being a very modest 1% following a contraction of 0.4% in the current year on account of the deleveraging that still has to occur in the private sector and over the medium term also in the public sector [more]
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
The DBIX
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
Global Markets
The following links are available to Deutsche Bank clients only 
Copyright © 2014 Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main