On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Difficult times for German savers
The policy of low and negative interest rates has had a limited impact on the returns on household financial assets in Germany to date. The nominal total return has averaged 3.4% over the last four years. Even nominal returns on interest-bearing investments did not slip below 2% until 2015 because a large proportion of longer-dated and mostly higher-coupon investments dampened the effect of evaporating market returns. High and stable revaluation gains have also buttressed total returns over recent years. They have probably been enhanced in no small measure by the ECB’s Quantitative Easing programme. Interest income and revaluation effects are likely to be a greater burden in 2016 and 2017. The income return on other assets is also likely to drop on account of the financial market environment. The scope for further significant revaluation gains is likely to be limited given already very high valuations. In 2017 the real total return could even become negative (again). [more]
Talking Point
Growing doubts about negative interest rate policy
The debate about whether a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) helps or hinders the transmission mechanism of monetary policy continues to rage. The BIS and many others – including us – long ago issued warnings about throwing open the monetary floodgates and the side effects of negative central-bank interest rates, and now Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has also clearly rejected negative interest rates, despite using all the means at his disposal to prevent the UK economy from sliding into recession after the Brexit shock. The package of measures he launched in August significantly exceeded market expectations, but Carney has ruled out negative interest rates, referring to the adverse impact on the capital markets. [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook 2016 : Managing with less liquidity
The long-awaited turn toward the normalization of US monetary policy should finally get under way next week, with the Fed set to raise rates for the first time since 2006. In the year ahead, we could also see signals that the monetary spigots in Europe will begin to close as well. While such indications are probably more than a year away in Japan, we do not expect the BoJ to add to its asset purchases. In a world that has been awash with central bank liquidity for most of the past decade, the central question for the year ahead is how the global economy and financial markets will react as the tap on that liquidity begins to tighten. [more]
Latest publications and articles
Household financial assets in Germany, GDP growth, View from Berlin
German GDP; Fiscal balance; Current account surplus; Retail investors; German industry; View from Berlin
In Focus
Germany's massive current account surplus set to decline
EMU’s current account (CA) surplus has lent some support to the euro over the past two years at a time of relentless fixed income outflows. Germany is pivotal, as it accounts for 60% of the surplus. Since the rotation of fixed income assets out of Europe is likely to continue (‘Euroglut’) the balance of payments should therefore become even more bearish for the euro. The German surplus is likely to weaken by about 20% to 7% of GDP by the end of the decade due to unfavourable demographic trends, the housing boom and slowing globalisation. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
GDP (% yoy)
2014 2015F 2016F
United States 2.4 2.6 1.3
Japan -0.1 0.6 0.6
Euroland 1.2 1.9 1.6
Germany 1.6 1.7 1.9
France 0.7 1.2 1.4
Italy 0.1 0.7 0.7
United Kingdom 3.1 2.2 1.9
Australia 2.7 2.4 3.1
Russia 0.7 -3.7 0.0
China 7.3 6.9 6.6
Canada 2.5 1.1 1.2
India 7.0 7.2 7.5
Brazil 0.1 -3.8 -3.1
Household financial assets in Germany, GDP growth, View from Berlin
German GDP; Fiscal balance; Current account surplus; Retail investors; German industry; View from Berlin
German industry, mortgage lending, German housing and office market, view from Berlin
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
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