Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Talking point
Down the rabbit-hole
These days, financial market commentaries are often laced with expressions such as "topsy-turvy" and "Alice in Wonderland". Recently, even Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda described the need for unconditional faith in the inflationary impact of Japanese monetary policy with a reference to Peter Pan, quoting Peter as saying that (in his world) "the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it". [more]
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Inflation moving higher, despite subdued core inflation
While the core inflation rate has remained relatively stable since 2011 at an average of slightly above 1% yoy the oil price slump is the main reason for the temporary decline in consumer prices at the start of 2015. However, the oil price rise of some 30% since January and the stabilisation of the EUR exchange rate sent the German inflation rate out of negative territory after just one month and then made it accelerate to 0.7% yoy recently. We therefore expect slightly stronger increases in consumer prices of 0.5% this year and 2.0% in 2016. With our forecast the risks are more pronounced to the downside. The oil price might rise more slowly than expected on account of the global oversupply. In addition, the EUR/USD has now stabilised at above 1.10 after hitting its low in mid-April. Our forecast assumes EUR/USD parity by year-end. [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook : Filling the tank before liftoff
Steady increases in the global supply of oil have reduced petroleum product prices to levels that are now modestly boosting the expansion of economic activity in many regions of the world. As oil prices recede further in the near term before trending gradually upward, we see global economic growth rising to a moderate 3.6% pace in 2015 and a bit further in 2016. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Misguided policy raises risk of housing bubble
Politicians should focus on an expansion of building activity in the major cities and conurbations in order to reduce the upside pressure on house prices. In the past few months there have been indications of easing activity in the construction sector. If this trend materialises, the pressure on house prices will intensify further. One possible cause of this development is capacity restrictions, and a lack of suitable skilled labour in the finishing trades in particular. An immigration law that specifically focuses on bottlenecks in the labour market could help to bring about some relief. If it becomes obvious over the next few months that construction growth is going to remain sluggish long term, rent control should not be implemented in the regions. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2013 2014F 2015F
United States 2.2 2.4 2.3
Japan 1.6 -0.1 1.1
Euroland -0.4 0.9 1.4
Germany 0.1 1.6 1.6
France 0.7 0.2 1.2
Italy -1.7 -0.4 0.7
United Kingdom 1.7 2.8 2.5
Australia 2.1 2.7 2.5
Russia 1.3 0.6 -3.2
China 7.7 7.4 7.0
Canada 2.0 2.4 1.8
India 6.9 7.1 7.5
Brazil 2.7 0.1 -1.4
 
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
The DBIX
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
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