Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Talking Point
The end of the golden era for oil states continues to curb German export growth in 2016
In 2015, exports of German goods to the oil states declined by 7.4%. This was the third fall in a row. Growing exports to the United Arab Emirates (primarily aircraft) and Saudi Arabia prevented an even worse result. As oil prices will initially remain low, German exports to the oil-producing countries are expected to fall again in 2016. Our export indicator points to a decline of approximately 5%. Among the major German industrial sectors, mechanical engineering is likely to be hardest hit by falling demand from the oil states, as was the case in 2015. Overall, the significance of the oil producers as a market for German industry will continue to decline in 2016. [more]
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Solid growth but difficulties for exports and construction
According to our and consensus expectations Germany will record 4 years (2014-2017) of above potential GDP growth in an extremely narrow range of 1.5% to 1.7%, despite substantial shocks and massive swings in growth drivers. If growth breaks out, a downside move seems more likely than higher growth. The economic slowdown in the oil-producing countries due to the falling oil price also carries implications for the German economy in terms of its foreign trade. Although the overall effect is positive for the German economy, German exports to oil-producing countries remain under pressure. Capital spending on residential construction has been growing sluggishly in recent years. The main reasons are: a shortage of building land, increased regulatory hurdles in virtually all construction sectors, high construction costs and a lack of skilled workers in the construction industry.  [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook 2016 : Managing with less liquidity
The long-awaited turn toward the normalization of US monetary policy should finally get under way next week, with the Fed set to raise rates for the first time since 2006. In the year ahead, we could also see signals that the monetary spigots in Europe will begin to close as well. While such indications are probably more than a year away in Japan, we do not expect the BoJ to add to its asset purchases. In a world that has been awash with central bank liquidity for most of the past decade, the central question for the year ahead is how the global economy and financial markets will react as the tap on that liquidity begins to tighten. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Influx of refugees: An opportunity for Germany
The influx of refugees has raised net immigration to Germany to the record level of more than one million. Among the OECD countries, this trend could put Germany ahead of the United States, traditionally the No. 1 destination country for migrants. As a result, Germany faces the difficult − and costly – Herculean task of integrating the refugees and absorbing the supply shock to the labour market. At the same time, the refugees represent an opportunity for rejuvenating an ageing population in Germany, where there is a growing scarcity of labour and the threat of lower structural growth. In our outlined win-win scenario, successful integration offers Germany the opportunity to consolidate its position as Europe’s economic powerhouse and to increase its attractiveness as an immigration country. A sustained high level of net immigration will attenuate the decline of the trend growth rate brought on by an ageing population. Instead of moving closer to stagnation, the trend growth could still amount to 1% in ten to 15 years as well, which would also benefit social systems. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2014 2015F 2016F
United States 2.4 2.4 1.4
Japan -0.1 0.5 -0.4
Euroland 0.9 1.5 1.5
Germany 1.6 1.7 1.7
France 0.2 1.2 1.2
Italy -0.3 0.8 1.1
United Kingdom 2.9 2.3 2.2
Australia 2.6 2.5 2.8
Russia 0.7 -3.7 -0.7
China 7.3 6.9 6.7
Canada 2.5 1.2 2.2
India 7.3 7.5 7.5
Brazil 0.1 -3.8 -3.9
 
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