On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Talking point
Renminbi impact on Germany low, but not Chinese cyclical risks
For the average German a sack of rice falling over in China has long been none of his business. In the meantime, however, the importance of events in China for the German economy has come to be recognised. China's unexpectedly weak economic indicators and the fluctuations in the Chinese stock market have increased the scepticism over recent months about whether China will achieve the growth target set by the government for this year of around 7%. Our China economist remains confident that the Chinese economy will stabilise following expected GDP growth of nearly 7% yoy in Q3 thanks to the support measures instigated by the government. However, German exporters are already having to contend with a marked softening of demand from China. [more]
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Migration, urbanisation, inflation
Although the external and the financial environment have deteriorated we have lifted our 2016 GDP call to 1.9% (1.7%). Drivers are stronger real consumption growth due to lower oil prices/stronger EUR and the surge in immigration which should ceteris paribus add about ½ pp to consumption (split between private and public). The risks are mainly external (EMs). We lower our forecast for German inflation (national definition) in 2015 and 2016 to 0.3% and 1.3% from 0.5% and 2.0%. The relatively large adjustment for 2016 is due to the weaker inflation development in H2 2015 and due to our expectations of a weaker dynamic in 2016.  [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook : Filling the tank before liftoff
Steady increases in the global supply of oil have reduced petroleum product prices to levels that are now modestly boosting the expansion of economic activity in many regions of the world. As oil prices recede further in the near term before trending gradually upward, we see global economic growth rising to a moderate 3.6% pace in 2015 and a bit further in 2016. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Misguided policy raises risk of housing bubble
Politicians should focus on an expansion of building activity in the major cities and conurbations in order to reduce the upside pressure on house prices. In the past few months there have been indications of easing activity in the construction sector. If this trend materialises, the pressure on house prices will intensify further. One possible cause of this development is capacity restrictions, and a lack of suitable skilled labour in the finishing trades in particular. An immigration law that specifically focuses on bottlenecks in the labour market could help to bring about some relief. If it becomes obvious over the next few months that construction growth is going to remain sluggish long term, rent control should not be implemented in the regions. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
GDP (% yoy)
2013 2014 2015F
United States 2.2 2.4 2.4
Japan 1.6 -0.1 0.6
Euroland -0.4 0.9 1.5
Germany 0.1 1.6 1.7
France 0.7 0.2 1.1
Italy -1.7 -0.4 0.8
United Kingdom 1.7 2.8 2.6
Australia 2.1 2.7 2.2
Russia 1.3 0.6 -4.0
China 7.7 7.4 7.0
Canada 2.0 2.4 1.8
India 6.9 7.1 7.5
Brazil 2.7 0.1 -2.9
Spotlight on Germany
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
The House View
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