Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Talking point
Global economy not running smoothly despite falling oil prices
Taking the global PMI as the benchmark, the global economy has lost momentum over recent months. However, the slump in oil prices to just USD 60 per barrel of late, a drop of 45% yoy (Brent Blend), is likely to provide a major boost to the global economy – at least temporarily. Oversupply on the global oil market has expanded markedly due to the huge increase in petroleum production in the US – it is now the world's biggest producer – and the unwillingness of OPEC to reduce its production quotas. Even if things turn out as we expect and oil production in OPEC and elsewhere is likely to be curtailed in the next few months because of the price slump, we expect the average price of Brent in 2015 to be USD 72.50 per barrel and thus nearly 30% down on the previous year. [more]
Focus Germany
Focus Germany – Outlook 2015: Recovery with risks attached
Following a weak winter half in 2014/15 the economy looks likely to regain its footing as 2015 progresses. However, sluggish performance at the turn of the year means growth will probably average only 1% in 2015 after 1.4% in 2014. It is encouraging, however, that private consumption should remain a major pillar of growth, whereas net exports are likely to have a neutral impact. Nonetheless, signs are increasing that some – in our opinion misguided – economic policy moves (such as the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage as well as an enhanced pensions package) are weighing on the labour market and thus on consumption. Given a weakening of cyclical activity and the costs of economic policy measures, we expect the general government budget to be slightly in deficit in 2015. [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook : Filling the tank before liftoff
Steady increases in the global supply of oil have reduced petroleum product prices to levels that are now modestly boosting the expansion of economic activity in many regions of the world. As oil prices recede further in the near term before trending gradually upward, we see global economic growth rising to a moderate 3.6% pace in 2015 and a bit further in 2016. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Case for higher investment in infrastructure – despite questionable ”gap analysis”
Germany is constantly being accused of investing too little. Critics say this hurts Germany itself as well as other countries. This assertion enjoys broad support among (high-profile) economic researchers, international institutions such as the IMF and many lobbyists from the German business community. They see the extra public investment requirements running to 3% of GDP (per year!), with the going buzzword being the "investment gap". The government, in particular, has been called upon to significantly boost its investments in infrastructure. Even the disappointing GDP figures and lowered growth expectations of the past few months are now also being used to justify demands for a rapid increase in (public) investment. Hopes of growth stimuli for the neighbouring countries of Europe are playing a key role in many of these demands – especially at the high end of the demand scale. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2013 2014F 2015F
United States 2.2 2.5 3.7
Japan 1.6 0.3 1.3
Euroland -0.4 0.8 1.0
Germany 0.1 1.4 1.0
France 0.4 0.4 0.9
Italy -1.9 -0.4 0.3
United Kingdom 1.7 2.6 2.5
Australia 2.1 2.8 2.6
Russia 1.3 0.5 -5.2
China 7.7 7.4 7.0
Canada 2.0 2.5 2.8
India 4.7 5.5 6.5
Brazil 2.5 0.1 0.3
 
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