Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Germany Monitor
Crumbs or pie – how much will Frankfurt's property market benefit from BREXIT?
The question regarding the consequences of a Brexit for the EU, the United Kingdom and Germany is expected to remain unanswered for some time. The political uncertainties and exit scenarios range from a contentious separation to a second referendum. At present, however, we can expect that Frankfurt will be one of places to benefit most from a Brexit. In light of the differences between the size of London and Frankfurt, London's crumbs could become Frankfurt's pie. The relocation of jobs to Frankfurt is also likely to boost property demand. The additional demand potential is welcome on the Frankfurt office market because it will equalise structurally induced reductions in the financial sector and will tend to lead to further reductions in vacancies and increase rents. The assumed 5,000 office workers are likely to relocate to the highly priced sub-markets close to the city centre. However, as new building projects also focus on these sub-markets, positive demand effects will be diluted. Because of existing demand overhangs, disadvantages are emerging on the Frankfurt residential property market from a potential relocation of employees. Price growth and the shortage of housing will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. An additional 5,000 homes and a correspondingly elevated housing shortage are likely to drive prices up by more than EUR 100 per m². While purchase prices remain affordable thanks to low interest rates, they are strongly dependent on future interest rate developments. [more]
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Subdued industry outlook dampens wage growth
German wage growth slowed in H1 2016 and there is a range of factors that are likely to also put a lid on the pick-up in 2017. The impact of labour shortage is limited by material mismatch between the qualifications of the unemployed and those sought by employers as well as substantial immigration flows. High real wage gains have pushed up unit labour costs and weighed on corporate profitability, which is further undermined by low productivity growth. Cautious wage agreements in 2016 on average stipulate only 2% wage increases in 2017. Despite a 4% increase in the statutory minimum wage, aggregate wages should increase by only around 2 ½%. According to our forecasts, next year could see the growth rate for industrial production in Germany drop to 0.5% in real terms. Regarding output in Germany’s large industrial sectors we do not expect major outliers. Also in this issue: “The View from Berlin. All lights on the debates about personalities and tactical gambits.”  [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook 2016 : Managing with less liquidity
The long-awaited turn toward the normalization of US monetary policy should finally get under way next week, with the Fed set to raise rates for the first time since 2006. In the year ahead, we could also see signals that the monetary spigots in Europe will begin to close as well. While such indications are probably more than a year away in Japan, we do not expect the BoJ to add to its asset purchases. In a world that has been awash with central bank liquidity for most of the past decade, the central question for the year ahead is how the global economy and financial markets will react as the tap on that liquidity begins to tighten. [more]
Latest publications and articles
28.10.2016
German wages, German industry, the View from Berlin
04.10.2016
Household financial assets in Germany, GDP growth, View from Berlin
02.09.2016
German GDP; Fiscal balance; Current account surplus; Retail investors; German industry; View from Berlin
EU Monitor
Rising income inequality: do not draw the obvious conclusions
Inequality is dominating the political debate in various countries still characterised by sluggish economic recovery and high unemployment even several years after the financial crisis. In this note we look at trends, drivers and solutions. Four points stand out from the trends. First, global income inequality has increased over the last three decades. Second, the integration of the EM into the global economy has allowed aggregate income levels to converge towards AE levels, lifting millions out of poverty. Third, the AE have been better able to control income inequality via redistribution. Fourth, aggregates can be deceptive. Rising income inequality is associated with globalisation, technological change and migration. At the same time they have had an undeniably positive impact on aggregate income. The policy dilemma is in resolving the tension between the increase in income and its unfair distribution.  [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2014 2015F 2016F
United States 2.4 2.6 1.5
Japan -0.1 0.6 0.7
Euroland 1.2 1.9 1.6
Germany 1.6 1.7 1.9
France 0.7 1.2 1.3
Italy 0.1 0.7 0.9
United Kingdom 3.1 2.2 1.9
Australia 2.8 2.4 3.1
Russia 0.7 -3.7 -0.5
China 7.3 6.9 6.6
Canada 2.6 0.9 1.2
India 7.0 7.2 7.0
Brazil 0.5 -3.8 -3.4
 
dbStandpunkt
The dark sides of QE: Backdoor socialisation, expropriated savers and asset bubbles
While European central bankers commend themselves for the scale and originality of monetary policy since 2012, this self-praise is increasingly unwarranted. The reality is that since Mr Draghi’s infamous “whatever it takes” speech in 2012, the eurozone has delivered barely any growth, the worst labour market performance among industrial countries, unsustainable debt levels, and inflation far below the central bank’s own target. While the positive case for European Central Bank intervention is weak at best, the negative repercussions are becoming overwhelming. This paper outlines the five darker sides to current monetary policy. [more]
 
 
The DBIX
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
The House View
Global Markets
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