Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Talking point
Iran nuclear agreement: Potential effects on the German economy
If all goes well, the Iranian economy could begin to reintegrate into the world economy in early 2016. This harbours opportunities especially for Iran itself and its 80 million inhabitants. However, it is also likely to provide a moderate stimulus to world trade and German exports. In addition, increased Iranian oil production could dampen oil prices and thus support the growth of real income of German households. [more]
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Cracks in the foundation?
German model – has a consensus economy reached its limit? German output growth poised to outstrip potential again in current year. Despite new government spending programmes there should be continued budget surpluses for the time being. Given the strengths of its institutional framework Germany has so far largely been able to avoid the possibility of distributional conflicts feeding through in the shape of higher government deficits and/or rising inflation. Demographic developments, not least, will probably put this resilience to the test. However, a new reform thrust is needed in view of decreasing locational advantages. It remains to be seen whether society will carry through with an update of the Agenda 2010 reforms. [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook : Filling the tank before liftoff
Steady increases in the global supply of oil have reduced petroleum product prices to levels that are now modestly boosting the expansion of economic activity in many regions of the world. As oil prices recede further in the near term before trending gradually upward, we see global economic growth rising to a moderate 3.6% pace in 2015 and a bit further in 2016. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Misguided policy raises risk of housing bubble
Politicians should focus on an expansion of building activity in the major cities and conurbations in order to reduce the upside pressure on house prices. In the past few months there have been indications of easing activity in the construction sector. If this trend materialises, the pressure on house prices will intensify further. One possible cause of this development is capacity restrictions, and a lack of suitable skilled labour in the finishing trades in particular. An immigration law that specifically focuses on bottlenecks in the labour market could help to bring about some relief. If it becomes obvious over the next few months that construction growth is going to remain sluggish long term, rent control should not be implemented in the regions. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2013 2014F 2015F
United States 2.2 2.4 2.3
Japan 1.6 -0.1 1.1
Euroland -0.4 0.9 1.4
Germany 0.1 1.6 1.6
France 0.7 0.2 1.2
Italy -1.7 -0.4 0.7
United Kingdom 1.7 2.8 2.5
Australia 2.1 2.7 2.5
Russia 1.3 0.6 -3.2
China 7.7 7.4 7.0
Canada 2.0 2.4 1.8
India 6.9 7.1 7.5
Brazil 2.7 0.1 -1.7
 
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