On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Talking point
Renminbi impact on Germany low, but not Chinese cyclical risks
For the average German a sack of rice falling over in China has long been none of his business. In the meantime, however, the importance of events in China for the German economy has come to be recognised. China's unexpectedly weak economic indicators and the fluctuations in the Chinese stock market have increased the scepticism over recent months about whether China will achieve the growth target set by the government for this year of around 7%. Our China economist remains confident that the Chinese economy will stabilise following expected GDP growth of nearly 7% yoy in Q3 thanks to the support measures instigated by the government. However, German exporters are already having to contend with a marked softening of demand from China. [more]
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Strong domestic demand – but no excesses
Since the last Focus Germany, some disappointing economic data have been published that fuelled the speculations around a slowing German economy. We do not believe that this requires revisions of our GDP forecast, though. Just like last year, the weakness of the industrial data is overstated by holiday effects. Nevertheless, there is a risk of an even lower foreign demand than stated by our already cautious estimates. This, however, is balanced by the upward risks for the domestic economy. Due to the migration dynamics over the summer months, we are reducing our budget forecasts for 2015 and 2016. Relative to gross domestic product we now expect surpluses of 0.3% and 0.0%, respectively (previously 0.7% and 0.5%).  [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook : Filling the tank before liftoff
Steady increases in the global supply of oil have reduced petroleum product prices to levels that are now modestly boosting the expansion of economic activity in many regions of the world. As oil prices recede further in the near term before trending gradually upward, we see global economic growth rising to a moderate 3.6% pace in 2015 and a bit further in 2016. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Influx of refugees: An opportunity for Germany
The influx of refugees has raised net immigration to Germany to the record level of more than one million. Among the OECD countries, this trend could put Germany ahead of the United States, traditionally the No. 1 destination country for migrants. As a result, Germany faces the difficult − and costly – Herculean task of integrating the refugees and absorbing the supply shock to the labour market. At the same time, the refugees represent an opportunity for rejuvenating an ageing population in Germany, where there is a growing scarcity of labour and the threat of lower structural growth. In our outlined win-win scenario, successful integration offers Germany the opportunity to consolidate its position as Europe’s economic powerhouse and to increase its attractiveness as an immigration country. A sustained high level of net immigration will attenuate the decline of the trend growth rate brought on by an ageing population. Instead of moving closer to stagnation, the trend growth could still amount to 1% in ten to 15 years as well, which would also benefit social systems. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
GDP (% yoy)
2013 2014 2015F
United States 1.5 2.4 2.4
Japan 1.6 -0.1 0.7
Euroland -0.2 0.9 1.5
Germany 0.3 1.6 1.7
France 0.7 0.2 1.1
Italy -1.8 -0.4 0.8
United Kingdom 1.7 2.8 2.6
Australia 2.1 2.7 2.2
Russia 1.3 0.6 -4.0
China 7.7 7.3 7.0
Canada 2.0 2.4 1.8
India 6.9 7.1 7.0
Brazil 2.7 0.1 -3.2
Spotlight on Germany
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
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