Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Talking Point
The end of the golden era for oil states continues to curb German export growth in 2016
In 2015, exports of German goods to the oil states declined by 7.4%. This was the third fall in a row. Growing exports to the United Arab Emirates (primarily aircraft) and Saudi Arabia prevented an even worse result. As oil prices will initially remain low, German exports to the oil-producing countries are expected to fall again in 2016. Our export indicator points to a decline of approximately 5%. Among the major German industrial sectors, mechanical engineering is likely to be hardest hit by falling demand from the oil states, as was the case in 2015. Overall, the significance of the oil producers as a market for German industry will continue to decline in 2016. [more]
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Growth and fiscal outlook: Risks remain
We revise down our Q2 GDP growth forecast from 0.3% to 0.1% as we expect material payback for Q1 strength. While we remain optimistic with regards to the labour market, we think that the impetus from low oil prices to real incomes is fading. In addition, the mild winter has allowed construction work to be brought forward, albeit the payback might be limited by the strength of underlying construction demand. Given weak export sentiment, falling investment goods orders and lower capacity utilisation, we think investment in machinery & equipment is going to weigh on Q2 growth. We maintain our 2016 GDP forecast (1.7%), though. Despite spending on refugees, the German national budget generated a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 2015, the largest since 2000. However, the healthy short and medium-term fiscal outlook only marginally reduces the need for the reform of public finances.  [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook 2016 : Managing with less liquidity
The long-awaited turn toward the normalization of US monetary policy should finally get under way next week, with the Fed set to raise rates for the first time since 2006. In the year ahead, we could also see signals that the monetary spigots in Europe will begin to close as well. While such indications are probably more than a year away in Japan, we do not expect the BoJ to add to its asset purchases. In a world that has been awash with central bank liquidity for most of the past decade, the central question for the year ahead is how the global economy and financial markets will react as the tap on that liquidity begins to tighten. [more]
Latest publications and articles
03.06.2016
GDP growth, fiscal outlook, View from Berlin
04.04.2016
German GDP growth; German exports to oil-producing countries; residential construction in Germany; View from Berlin.
Standpunkt Deutschland
The ECB must change course
Over the past century central banks have become the guardians of our economic and financial security. The Bundesbank and Federal Reserve are respected for achieving monetary stability, often in the face of political opposition. But central bankers can also lose the plot, usually by following the economic dogma of the day. When they do, their mistakes can be catastrophic.Today the behaviour of the European Central Bank suggests that it too has gone awry. After seven years of ever-looser monetary policy there is increasing evidence that following the current dogma, broad-based quantitative easing and negative interest rates, risks the long-term stability of the eurozone. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2014 2015F 2016F
United States 2.4 2.4 1.5
Japan -0.1 0.6 0.3
Euroland 0.9 1.6 1.6
Germany 1.6 1.7 1.7
France 0.7 1.2 1.5
Italy -0.3 0.8 0.9
United Kingdom 2.9 2.3 1.5
Australia 2.7 2.5 3.2
Russia 0.7 -3.7 -0.7
China 7.3 6.9 6.7
Canada 2.5 1.1 1.3
India 7.0 7.2 7.5
Brazil 0.1 -3.8 -3.2
 
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
The DBIX
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
The House View
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