Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Solid growth, low inflation (despite ECB)
After a good start into 2014, manufacturing output in Germany looks set to grow by 4% in real terms in the full year. Even though business expectations have recently weakened somewhat, they remain in positive territory. Despite the good labour market situation in Germany inflation has decelerated noticeably. The outlook of a recovering global economy, a sliding euro and the introduction of a nation-wide minimum wage in Germany lead us to forecast that inflation is bottoming out. After hitting 1.1% in the current year it could pick up to 1.6% in 2015. [more]
World Outlook
Waiting for a US-led expansion
While we maintain our core view that global growth should pickupmeaningfully over the next two years, we have marked down our forecastsrelative to last quarter. Broad-based EM downgrades account entirely forthese downward revisions. Most notably, we reduced our growth forecastfor China in 2014 by 0.8pp. While we continue to look for the recovery inexport growth observed in the second half of last year to continue throughthis year and into 2015, we now expect the government will use this as anopportunity to depress investment in heavy industry even more. [more]
Talking point
Germany: Above trend, but no price pressure
Germany should enjoy the strongest growth among EMU countries, courtesy of a healthy domestic economy. Despite too-low interest rates and a tight labour market, there are no signs of imbalances building up, except maybe residential property markets in some urban centres. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Can Hollande pull off a Schröder and will it work?
With the New Year came a new Hollande pledging to build a New France. Still, most of the announcements made in January by the French President merely confirmed a prudent policy inflexion which started last year. Hollande is counting on the solemnity of the speech, putting economic reforms more firmly on the French political agenda. But the reforms are likely to be slow, and the transition will be costly in terms of growth. This will weaken France's reserves of political energy for European reform for many years. Actually, the structural hurdles to reform are more firmly entrenched in France than in Germany 10 years ago. Thus the adjustment is likely to be slower to yield any meaningful results on potential growth than in the German experience and a meaningful structural re-convergence of the two countries will be slow. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2013 2014F 2015F
United States 1.9 1.9 3.5
Japan 1.5 1.2 1.5
Euroland -0.4 1.1 1.5
Germany 0.4 1.8 2.0
France 0.4 0.7 1.3
Italy -1.9 0.3 1.3
United Kingdom 1.7 3.1 2.5
Australia 2.4 3.6 3.5
Russia 1.3 0.8 2.4
China 7.7 7.8 8.0
Canada 2.0 2.5 3.0
India 4.4 5.5 6.5
Brazil 2.5 0.9 1.2
 
Global economy
The global economy in 2014 – Heading towards trend growth
Seven years after the onset of the global economic and financial crisis the global economy should start to post trend growth of 3 ½% to 4% again in 2014. Following several years in which hopes of an economic upturn have been dashed the interplay of five drivers may finally effect a turnaround for the eurozone economy. The growth is, however, likely to end up being a very modest 1% following a contraction of 0.4% in the current year on account of the deleveraging that still has to occur in the private sector and over the medium term also in the public sector [more]
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
The DBIX
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
Global Markets
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