Macroeconomics
On this website, Deutsche Bank Research offers you analyses of the German and the global economy as well as developments in national and international financial markets. We provide macroeconomic and financial market forecasts and conduct research on structural and long-term issues.
Talking point
Germany’s fiscal position – too good to last
At a time when there are increasing voices demanding a more flexible interpretation of the Maastricht deficit rules, German Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble has presented his budget plan, which does without any new federal debt between 2015 and 2018. This comes much to the chagrin of France, where his colleague Michel Sapin has been forced to admit that this year’s deficit will be at least 4.3% of GDP and that meeting the 3% target needs to be postponed for the third time until 2017 at the earliest. [more]
World Outlook
World Outlook : Filling the tank before liftoff
Steady increases in the global supply of oil have reduced petroleum product prices to levels that are now modestly boosting the expansion of economic activity in many regions of the world. As oil prices recede further in the near term before trending gradually upward, we see global economic growth rising to a moderate 3.6% pace in 2015 and a bit further in 2016. [more]
Focus Germany
Focus Germany: Structural downshift in global trade burdens growth outlook
Underlying growth of the German economy has slowed in Q3. After average quarterly growth rates of over 0.3% qoq in the last 1 ½ years, GDP expanded just 0.1% in Q3. We expect about stagnation in the next two quarters with a risk of a negative print as sentiment has weakened further in October/November. The little momentum of global trade since 2012 points towards structural changes, which will affect German exports in particular. German export growth should therefore remain relatively muted during the next few years. We forecast average real German export growth at the lower end of a range of 4%-6% between 2014 and 2019, which should be buttressed by a depreciation of the euro. [more]
Standpunkt Deutschland
Case for higher investment in infrastructure – despite questionable ”gap analysis”
Germany is constantly being accused of investing too little. Critics say this hurts Germany itself as well as other countries. This assertion enjoys broad support among (high-profile) economic researchers, international institutions such as the IMF and many lobbyists from the German business community. They see the extra public investment requirements running to 3% of GDP (per year!), with the going buzzword being the "investment gap". The government, in particular, has been called upon to significantly boost its investments in infrastructure. Even the disappointing GDP figures and lowered growth expectations of the past few months are now also being used to justify demands for a rapid increase in (public) investment. Hopes of growth stimuli for the neighbouring countries of Europe are playing a key role in many of these demands – especially at the high end of the demand scale. [more]
Global forecast map
Forecast overview
...Forecast tables
 
GDP (% yoy)
2013 2014F 2015F
United States 2.2 2.4 3.5
Japan 1.6 0.5 1.4
Euroland -0.4 0.8 1.0
Germany 0.1 1.4 1.0
France 0.4 0.4 0.9
Italy -1.9 -0.4 0.3
United Kingdom 1.7 3.0 2.5
Australia 2.1 2.8 2.6
Russia 1.3 0.5 -0.9
China 7.7 7.3 7.0
Canada 2.0 2.5 3.2
India 4.7 5.5 6.5
Brazil 2.5 0.1 0.7
 
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
The DBIX
Comment from Deutsche Bank Research on Deutsche Welle. 
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