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Deutsche Bank Research named 2013 Forecast Accuracy Award Winner for Germany

May 19, 2014

 

Consensus Economics, the international macroeconomic survey firm, regularly undertakes back-testing of the macroeconomic data collected, using Mean Absolute Error calculations to determine how accurate Consensus Forecasts are in predicting the eventual outturns.

This year the individual forecasts that comprise the consensus were also examined to identify which of the survey panellists provided the most accurate forecasts. Deutsche Bank Research's forecasts were the best overall at predicting the eventual 2013 outturns. The full methodology for this analysis can be found in the Consensus Economics Methodology Note.

Stefan Schneider, Chief German Economist, said: “Economic forecasting is not pure science but also requires a bit of gut feeling – especially given the unprecedented adjustments following the financial crisis. Over the course of 2012 and 2013 we had often been asked why our forecasts remained at the lower end of expectations, when especially international forecasters expected Germany to accelerate strongly. I think here our local expertise and our constant dialogue with our clients has helped to get a good feel for the economy.

With our current forecast of 1.8% GDP growth in 2014 we remain at the lower end of the survey panellists for Consensus Economics as sluggish global trade, geo-political risks and scepticism regarding the Grand Coalition's policies are weighing on corporate Germany’s animal spirits.”

In its commendation Consensus Economics drew attention to Germany 2013 GDP and inflation data showing the relative performance of Deutsche Bank Research's forecasts against the final outturn, and also against the overall consensus of panellists during the 24 month forecasting period.

 

 

 

 

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