Focus topic European Integration

Focus topic: European integrationEU integration greatly influences policy-making at the national level, and the EU itself is a major actor on the world economic stage. Most of the conditions governing the economic and business environment for European companies and consumers - especially in respect of the financial markets - are decided at the European level. For this reason, DB Research regularly analyses and appraises the latest developments in the EU and EMU, including issues relating to enlargement, European banks and financial markets.


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A European "generation gap"?
Abstract: One of the widely discussed patterns of the UK-referendum vote is its demographic distribution. Some surveys find that voters older than 65 were more than twice as likely to have opted for “leave” than those younger than 25 years. Demographic differences with respect to perceptions of Europe are not unique to the UK.
Topics: Economic policy; European integration
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Brexit: German automotive and pharmaceutical industries hit the hardest
Abstract: Following the UK referendum, Brexit will also leave traces on German industry. After all, 7.5% of all German exports went to the UK in 2015, making it Germany’s third most important export market after the United States and France. The automotive and pharmaceutical industries are likely to be hit the hardest by Brexit. This is because the UK accounts for 12.8% and 10.5%, respectively, of these two industries’ total exports. In addition, they both generally have an above-average export ratio. The UK referendum is likely to have an impact on individual companies’ investment decisions and German companies’ UK pricing structures in the short term.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic trends; Electrical engineering; European integration; European issues; European policy issues; Food and beverages; Globalisation; Intern. economic system; Intern. relations; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Other sectors; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Socio-econ. trends; Steel industry; Trade
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A darker Europe
Topics: Economic policy; EU enlargement; European integration; European issues; European policy issues; Intern. economic system; Intern. relations; International capital markets; Key issues; Politics and elections
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Promoting investment in Europe: Where do we stand with the Juncker Plan?
Abstract: The Juncker Plan set out to boost investment in Europe and can show some progress so far. After operating for about a year, a total of EUR 12.8 bn financing of the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI) has been approved by the European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund. This is expected to trigger EUR 100 bn of total investment according to estimates by the institutions. The European Commission has already called for extension of EFSI beyond the initial three year period ideally increasing its scale and scope. However, considerations about EFSI’s future need to be based on thorough evaluation of effectiveness and demonstrated added value. After the first year, there is -quite naturally- more information on activity than evidence on impact. To that effect, continuous monitoring and mid-term stock-taking are key to inform the debate about EFSI's future.
Topics: Banking; Economic growth; Economic policy; EU enlargement; European integration; European issues; European policy issues; Innovation; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Sectors / commodities; SMEs; Supervision and regulation; Trade
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The ECB must change course
Abstract: Over the past century central banks have become the guardians of our economic and financial security. The Bundesbank and Federal Reserve are respected for achieving monetary stability, often in the face of political opposition. But central bankers can also lose the plot, usually by following the economic dogma of the day. When they do, their mistakes can be catastrophic. Today the behaviour of the European Central Bank suggests that it too has gone awry. After seven years of ever-looser monetary policy there is increasing evidence that following the current dogma, broad-based quantitative easing and negative interest rates, risks the long-term stability of the eurozone.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; European integration; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation
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Better budgeting in Europe: What can Fiscal Councils contribute?
Abstract: Fiscal councils can improve the sustainability of public finances. They can increase transparency and accountability of fiscal policymaking by providing unbiased information to the public and stakeholders in the budget process. The design of their mandates, independence, and their public role are key conditions determining effectiveness. The new European Advisory Fiscal Board (EAFB) can be a valuable addition but is unlikely to be a game changer. Far-reaching reforms on the Union’s fiscal framework remain contingent on political will. Independence is crucial for fiscal councils to have an impact. This holds for both the EAFB and national fiscal councils. In addition, cooperation between the new EAFB and national bodies is a necessary requirement for a “European System of Fiscal Boards” to work effectively.
Topics: Economic policy; European integration; European issues; Fiscal policy; Key issues; Monetary policy
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Promoting investment in Europe: How has the Juncker Plan been doing?
Abstract: The Juncker Plan set out to foster investment in Europe – and can show some progress so far. After operating for about a year, a total of EUR 12.8 bn financing of the European Fund for Strategic Investment (EFSI) has been approved by the EIB and the EIF. This is expected to co-finance EUR 100 bn of total investment according to estimates by the institutions.
Topics: Economic policy; European integration; European issues
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Ending China’s differential treatment: What’s at stake for EU trade defence?
Abstract: When China joined the WTO in 2001, its accession protocol included an option for members to apply alternative methodologies when assessing dumping for Chinese imports. As parts of the provisions are set to expire in December 2016, the future approach to determine dumping in investigations concerning China in the EU has come under debate. There are several options on the table: They range from sticking to the status quo to allowing for full market economy treatment. The outcome matters for both European and Chinese industries and could have potential ramifications on China-EU trade relations. The European Commission therefore has to walk a tightrope taking into account the concerns of the different market participants affected as well as member states, which have often held divergent positions on anti-dumping in the past.
Topics: Asia; Economic growth; Economic structure; Emerging markets; European integration; European policy issues; Globalisation; Intern. economic system; Key issues; Other sectors; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Trade; WTO
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Higher EMU labour mobility at risk
Abstract: Our analysis on labour mobility shows that mobility between EMU countries is relatively low compared to the US. EMU mobility was far higher in the post-crisis period and increased significantly since 2007. In particular, the ongoing, pronounced variation of the labour market situation across EMU countries should remain a driving force of bilateral migration. The higher mobility provides some limited hope for the ECB. However, the increased competition caused by the jump of migration from non-EMU countries will probably put the increased EMU labour mobility at risk, which was dominated by the shift of flows in the direction of Germany as EMU’s stability anchor since the start of the crisis.
Topics: Diversity; Economic policy; Education; European integration; European issues; European policy issues; Key issues; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Migration; Socio-econ. trends
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Transparency of business regulation around the world
Topics: Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic trends; European integration; Key issues; Macroeconomics
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