Focus topic global financial markets

Focus topic: Global financial marketsFollowing the deep crisis from 2007 until 2009 the structures and regulatory frameworks of the global financial markets have transformed as much as the business models of the financial institutions. DB Research is monitoring and participating in the debate about the impact of the new financial market regulatory regime as well as the medium-term effects of the "new normal" on financial markets in both Europe and the US. In addition, our publications illustrate the potential consequences for the players in the global financial markets, for financial products and the infrastructures on which they are based.

 

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15.04.2014
Tight bank lending, lush bond market: New trends in European corporate bond issuance
Abstract: In our empirical analysis we investigate the substitution between weak bank lending and lush bond markets and we show that rising bank CDS spreads are consistently associated with positive growth in securities underwriting and negative growth in loan syndication. This suggests that banks and clients switch funding instruments in times of financial stress. In this regard, a well-developed bond market is an important element to increase financial resilience as it offers an alternative source of funding for the real economy and an alternative source of revenue to banks. However, we also note a worrying trend towards financial fragmentation during times of stress which limits diversification potential.
Topics: Banking; Business cycle; Capital markets; Econometrics; European issues; Global financial markets; International financial system; Key issues; Monetary policy; Quantitative analysis
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07.04.2014
Card fraud: A growing problem?
Abstract: Card fraud in Europe has risen recently, both in absolute terms and relative to total transaction values for card payments. What is behind this increase and how much is it a cause for concern?
Topics: Financial market trends; Global financial markets; Key issues; Technology and innovation
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01.04.2014
European banks' results: The long and winding road
Abstract: The fundamental transformation of the European banking sector into a leaner, less profitable, low-growth but also more stable industry in the “new normal” continues to make progress. Banks are shedding assets, reducing costs and raising capital ratios, with revenues in 2013 having declined for the third consecutive year. Legacy assets and litigation remained an additional, significant burden. Nonetheless, profitability has improved somewhat from its extremely low levels and may well rise further this year.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International financial markets; International financial system; Key issues
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31.01.2014
What’s behind recent trends in Asian corporate bond markets?
Abstract: Corporate bond markets in Asia have expanded rapidly. Since the global financial crisis, Asian corporates have made increasing use of bond issuance for their funding needs, complementing traditional channels such as bank lending. While the bond markets of Hong Kong, Singapore and Korea are comparatively advanced and liquid, markets in China, India, Indonesia and Thailand are still at an early stage of development. Considerable variation exists in terms of bond issuances' structural characteristics by sector, currency, issuing volume and the use of funds. Fast growth in bond markets has provided an effective source of financing for the corporate sector, but its development is far from complete.
Topics: Asia; Banking; Capital markets; Capital markets policy; Emerging markets; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; Globalisation; International financial markets; International financial system; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Real econ. trends; Risk / Country Risk
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23.12.2013
CEE: Gradual deleveraging still ongoing
Topics: Banking; Eastern Europe; Emerging markets; Global financial markets; International financial system; Risk / Country Risk
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19.12.2013
The global economy in 2014 – Heading towards trend growth
Abstract: Seven years after the onset of the global economic and financial crisis the global economy should start to post trend growth of 3 ½% to 4% again in 2014. Following several years in which hopes of an economic upturn have been dashed the interplay of five drivers may finally effect a turnaround for the eurozone economy. The growth is, however, likely to end up being a very modest 1% following a contraction of 0.4% in the current year on account of the deleveraging that still has to occur in the private sector and over the medium term also in the public sector
Topics: EMU; Emerging markets; Global financial markets; International financial system; Macroeconomics
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18.12.2013
Central & Eastern Europe Credit Monitor: 2014 a better year for GDP, less so for credit
Abstract:  Economic recovery is underway Central & Eastern Europe (CEE). We expect a pick-up in real GDP growth across the board in 2014, with Kazakhstan, Poland and the Baltic countries topping the list. However, the growth impulse from credit is expected to be limited. The speed of withdrawal of Western bank funding from CEE has declined, and the region's banks continue to rebalance their funding model by increasingly relying on domestic funding. However, it remains to be seen whether domestic funding will be sufficient if and when credit demand picks up. Moreover, slow NPL resolution is likely to remain a constraint on lending in 2014.
Topics: Banking; Eastern Europe; Emerging markets; Global financial markets; International financial system; Risk / Country Risk
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16.12.2013
European banking sector: Finally heading for better times?
Abstract: Following years of struggle and having seen their world turned upside down, European banks may finally be heading for a (somewhat) smoother ride in 2014. Profitability is returning, though so far this is mainly driven by lower extraordinary charges rather than improvements in revenues and costs. Pressure to build capital may lessen thanks to significant progress over the past two years, yet currently banks are still shrinking relentlessly. Much will also depend on regulatory and supervisory actions, especially on how the EU Banking Union is implemented.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International financial markets; International financial system; Key issues
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26.09.2013
Bank performance in the US and Europe: An ocean apart
Abstract: Five years after the global financial crisis hit both the US and Europe, banks across the Atlantic are in very different shapes. US banks have returned to record profit levels, while their European peers are struggling to stay above the zero line at all. The differences are mainly driven by diverging trends in revenues, corporate lending growth and loan loss provisions all of which have developed much more favourably in America than in Europe. This may have been caused largely by three underlying factors: i) the better macroeconomic performance of the US, ii) European banks' less aggressive dealing with problematic legacy assets and their greater need to deleverage and shrink, and iii) differences in the institutional setup - in Europe at times triggering doubts over the very survival of the Monetary Union, in the US allowing the Fed to massively intervene in financial markets. As the US economic recovery gains strength and Europe emerges from the debt crisis and recession, banks face improvements on an operating level, with EU financial institutions likely to narrow but not close the gap to their US competitors.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International financial markets; International financial system; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Supervision and regulation
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07.08.2013
Reforming OTC derivatives markets: Observable changes and open issues
Abstract: Derivatives markets form a major part of the regulatory reform agenda. While corner-stones of the reforms have been defined, some crucial issues such as the exact definition of standardised derivative contracts, the treatment of cross-border trades and CCP access to central bank liquidity are yet to be clarified. The decrease in volumes in derivatives markets can largely be explained by trade compression. Even though there is a notable shift from dealer to CCP trades for interest rate derivatives and a less remarkable shift for the credit derivatives, the actual capacity of the clearing market is much higher. Regulatory pressure to encourage standardisation seems to have created little impetus for greater standardisation to date and the use of exchange platforms seems to remain subdued. Even though collateral practices would become more expensive for all market participants, non-financial corporations as counterparties are more likely to be affected by collateralisation obligations in the future. A few CCPs dominate the market suggesting concentration issues.
Topics: Banking; Global financial markets; International financial markets; International financial system; Key issues; Supervision and regulation
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