Focus topic global financial markets

Focus topic: Global financial marketsFollowing the deep crisis from 2007 until 2009 the structures and regulatory frameworks of the global financial markets have transformed as much as the business models of the financial institutions. DB Research is monitoring and participating in the debate about the impact of the new financial market regulatory regime as well as the medium-term effects of the "new normal" on financial markets in both Europe and the US. In addition, our publications illustrate the potential consequences for the players in the global financial markets, for financial products and the infrastructures on which they are based.

 

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Title
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02.05.2016
European exchange landscape: too fragmented
Abstract: In September 2015, the European Commission set out its action plan to establish a Capital Markets Union in order to push for stronger and more integrated capital markets in the EU to better complement bank finance. Creating deeper and more liquid stock markets is crucial in this respect, and also a precondition for European financial centres to regain their position in a global context. Indeed, the total number of stock exchanges operating independently in the EU is astonishingly high, especially in eastern and south-eastern European countries. In addition, market capitalisation is highly concentrated in only a handful of exchanges, and in smaller markets also tends to be lower relative to economic size.
Topics: Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures
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29.04.2016
Free market in death? Europe’s new bail-in regime and its impact on bank funding
Abstract: With the Single Resolution Mechanism taking full effect in 2016, winding-up large European banks in distress has become a more realistic scenario than ever before. One of the key elements of such a resolution is the bail-in tool. It is supposed to ensure that for investors, higher returns also involve higher risk, thereby establishing greater discipline and differentiation in markets for bank debt. Indeed, our analysis shows that market participants see the new bail-in regime as credible, which is a necessary precondition for a successful application. Important issues that still remain are the market depth for bail-in instruments and legal clarity about bail-in hierarchies. In any case, banks’ funding costs are likely to rise as a result, especially in the medium term.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Supervision and regulation
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23.03.2016
Are you already experimenting with blockchain? (Fintech #6)
Abstract: No? Then it may be worth taking a look at this digital technology and its potential areas of application. Alongside unsupervised learning algorithms and early cognitive systems, blockchain is an example of a digital technology that not only calls tried-and-tested business models into question, but is already turning them on their head. It may have its origins in the financial sector, but a universal spectrum of applications is beginning to open up both within and outside the fintech world. Those who have tried experimenting with digital technologies have quickly found that in many cases they make existing business models, processes and infrastructures noticeably more efficient and thus increase productivity. This has certainly been the case with blockchain, which is why it is a good idea for many decision makers (not only) in the financial sector to keep a close eye on developments and, above all, the various experiments with blockchain that are currently ongoing. Ideally they would experiment with various projects and pilot studies themselves in order to come up with their own ideas and try putting these into practice.
Topics: Banking; Economic structure; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; International capital markets; International financial system; Internet; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Media/PR & Advertising; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; Trade
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17.03.2016
European banks: The truth is in the numbers – progress in 2015
Abstract: Despite headwinds from slow economic growth, low interest rates and tighter regulation, European banks’ recovery continues. In 2015, banks’ core business with the private sector returned to growth, revenues rose and provisions for loan losses declined again. The sector has become more profitable and resilient. Challenges remain aplenty, but European banks are definitely heading in the right direction.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Supervision and regulation
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23.02.2016
Euro-area financial sector: growing and changing
Abstract: Despite a small dip in Q3 2015, the assets of financial institutions in the euro area are still broadly at a record level of about EUR 66 trillion. The financial sector – composed of banks, insurance companies & pension funds, and “shadow banks” – more than doubled its size over the past 15 years. Shadow banks have grown the most and now represent 40% of the financial sector with assets estimated at EUR 26 trillion.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets
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04.02.2016
Payments in the euro area: Are they stagnating? – No!
Abstract: In 2014, for the first time, the number of cashless payments in the euro area did not grow – according to ECB figures. The transaction volume remained flat at 68 bn payments. However, this is due to an overhaul of the statistical methodology which caused breaks in many of the series. Corrected for this, there was actually a strong development of the market: cashless payments grew by about 7% yoy or almost 5 bn transactions. This growth rate is even at the upper end of growth in recent years.
Topics: Banking; Global financial markets; International financial system; Key issues; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures
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23.12.2015
Promoting investment and growth: The role of development banks in Europe
Abstract: The financial and economic crisis brought development banks back in the spotlight. They are seen as part of the economic policy toolkit for overcoming cyclical and structural difficulties in economies, complementing financial systems by improving their functioning and bolstering economic resilience. Interest in development banking to promote growth and boost investment has increased especially in Europe of late. Given the current economic environment and changes in Europe’s banking and financial markets, development banks are bound to continue playing an important role in the coming years. Rather than crisis relief, their focus is shifting (back) to supporting structural change in economies. Here, they can play a useful complementary role, focusing on areas of market failure but risks lie with potential “overburdening” of development banks and setting expectations too high for what they can achieve.
Topics: Banking; Economic policy; European issues; European policy issues; Global financial markets; IMF / World Bank; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues
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18.12.2015
European banks: Exit the crisis, enter the new normal?
Abstract: With 2016 just around the corner, the outlook for the European banking sector in the new year looks more promising than it has been for almost a decade. Growth, though meagre, has returned to many business segments and regions. Despite unrelenting pressure on interest margins, total revenues are expanding. Asset quality is improving and profits in 2015 may be the highest since 2007. The biggest questions surround the future path of regulation (where another major round of tightening could paradoxically threaten the recently hard-won stability) and of the European and global economy (which has repeatedly and substantially surprised to the downside in recent years) in 2016.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues
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09.12.2015
Instant revolution of payments? The quest for real-time payments
Abstract: As digital processes reshape commerce and social life, payment service providers are striving to offer users instruments to transfer funds in a way that matches this immediacy and ubiquity. With the payments market in such a flux, the ECB is pushing banks to provide at least one pan-European instant payment solution in order to prevent a re-fragmentation of the Single Euro Payments Area. However, instant services can be based on different technical set-ups: closed-loop, open-loop and decentralised payment networks. There is an opportunity for new technologies and providers to cater for user needs and win market share. Innovation in instant payments will not alter the economics of payments, though. Positive network externalities and economies of scale in electronic processing will probably lead to a consolidation around a few instant payment systems in the long run.
Topics: E-commerce; EMU; European issues; Global financial markets; Information technology; Innovation; International capital markets; International financial system; Internet; Key issues; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Technology and innovation
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04.12.2015
Who are the end-users in the OTC derivatives market?
Abstract: Available data suggests that OTC derivatives are primarily used to hedge business risks. The perception that the OTC derivatives market is an inter-dealer market looks exaggerated; by contrast, non-dealers are the investors in the majority of trades. Derivatives may thus help the efficient distribution of risk in financial markets.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues
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