Focus topic global financial markets

Focus topic: Global financial marketsFollowing the deep crisis from 2007 until 2009 the structures and regulatory frameworks of the global financial markets have transformed as much as the business models of the financial institutions. DB Research is monitoring and participating in the debate about the impact of the new financial market regulatory regime as well as the medium-term effects of the "new normal" on financial markets in both Europe and the US. In addition, our publications illustrate the potential consequences for the players in the global financial markets, for financial products and the infrastructures on which they are based.

 

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23.08.2016
Robo advice – when machines manage your assets (Fintech #8)
Abstract: Many of the things that had us gasping in amazement when we watched science fiction films just a few decades ago have now become a mass-market reality. Today, Hollywood shows us what we can expect if we continue to develop digital technologies at the current pace. Of course, artificial intelligence and its use in all areas of our lives are undoubtedly still a long way off. However, substantial progress is being made especially when it comes to pattern recognition, modern data analysis and the use of self-learning algorithms. Without this technological progress, we would no longer be able to cope with the exponential growth in data volumes and data potential of which we can still only begin to conceive. We need the machines.
Topics: Banking; Economic structure; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; International capital markets; International financial system; Internet; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Sectors / commodities; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; Trade
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18.08.2016
European banks: Recovery running out of steam?
Abstract: The European banking industry has gone into reverse gear this year so far, following substantial progress in 2014 and 2015. Its revenues and profits have relapsed into contraction, and the potential for lower loan loss provisions to come to the rescue seems exhausted. Once more, cost cuts have not kept pace with the retreat on the income side. In a market environment that continues to be very challenging, banks may have to resort to even tougher measures to put themselves on a sustainable footing again.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues
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21.06.2016
European bank performance: Weak start to the year, but no disaster
Abstract: After two years of recovery, European banks suffered a setback in the first quarter of 2016. Capital market revenues were hit by concerns about global economic growth and banks’ own business models. Cost cuts and a further decline in loan loss provisions helped only somewhat to smooth the fall in profitability. Still, net income was about the same as in Q1 2014, and progress continued in other areas.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Supervision and regulation
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16.06.2016
Presentation: Non-performing loans in Europe and the US – impact on banks & customers
Topics: Banking; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system
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14.06.2016
ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme: More distortions
Abstract: Since the ECB’s announcement to include investment-grade corporate bonds in its QE programme (CSPP), corporate bond issuance has surged in the euro area. However, even though this is a boon for issuers, benefits for the real economy may be quite limited. The value added for SMEs is hard to see, and funds raised will most likely be used predominantly for refinancing of existing debt and for stock buybacks instead of new investments. Moreover, potential side effects of the corporate bond programme such as inefficiencies in the pricing of risks and deterioration in liquidity could increase the distortions in bond markets.
Topics: Banking; EMU; European issues; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; IMF / World Bank; International capital markets; International financial system; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures; Supervision and regulation; WTO
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24.05.2016
High-frequency trading: Reaching the limits
Abstract: The tremendous growth momentum in high-frequency trading seems to have reached its limits in recent years. The increasing cost of infrastructure and relentless competition within the industry are probably the first to blame. In addition, high-frequency trading firms are hardly participating in those dark pools where large block transactions are executed. Both trends are challenging their business model and trading strategies as high-frequency traders have seen their revenues and profits erode. Furthermore, forthcoming tighter prudential regulatory oversight may lead to an overhang of capacity in the high-frequency trading industry.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International financial system; Key issues; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures; Supervision and regulation
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02.05.2016
European exchange landscape: too fragmented
Abstract: In September 2015, the European Commission set out its action plan to establish a Capital Markets Union in order to push for stronger and more integrated capital markets in the EU to better complement bank finance. Creating deeper and more liquid stock markets is crucial in this respect, and also a precondition for European financial centres to regain their position in a global context. Indeed, the total number of stock exchanges operating independently in the EU is astonishingly high, especially in eastern and south-eastern European countries. In addition, market capitalisation is highly concentrated in only a handful of exchanges, and in smaller markets also tends to be lower relative to economic size.
Topics: Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures
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29.04.2016
Free market in death? Europe’s new bail-in regime and its impact on bank funding
Abstract: With the Single Resolution Mechanism taking full effect in 2016, winding-up large European banks in distress has become a more realistic scenario than ever before. One of the key elements of such a resolution is the bail-in tool. It is supposed to ensure that for investors, higher returns also involve higher risk, thereby establishing greater discipline and differentiation in markets for bank debt. Indeed, our analysis shows that market participants see the new bail-in regime as credible, which is a necessary precondition for a successful application. Important issues that still remain are the market depth for bail-in instruments and legal clarity about bail-in hierarchies. In any case, banks’ funding costs are likely to rise as a result, especially in the medium term.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Supervision and regulation
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23.03.2016
Are you already experimenting with blockchain? (Fintech #6)
Abstract: No? Then it may be worth taking a look at this digital technology and its potential areas of application. Alongside unsupervised learning algorithms and early cognitive systems, blockchain is an example of a digital technology that not only calls tried-and-tested business models into question, but is already turning them on their head. It may have its origins in the financial sector, but a universal spectrum of applications is beginning to open up both within and outside the fintech world. Those who have tried experimenting with digital technologies have quickly found that in many cases they make existing business models, processes and infrastructures noticeably more efficient and thus increase productivity. This has certainly been the case with blockchain, which is why it is a good idea for many decision makers (not only) in the financial sector to keep a close eye on developments and, above all, the various experiments with blockchain that are currently ongoing. Ideally they would experiment with various projects and pilot studies themselves in order to come up with their own ideas and try putting these into practice.
Topics: Banking; Economic structure; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; International capital markets; International financial system; Internet; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Media/PR & Advertising; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; Trade
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17.03.2016
European banks: The truth is in the numbers – progress in 2015
Abstract: Despite headwinds from slow economic growth, low interest rates and tighter regulation, European banks’ recovery continues. In 2015, banks’ core business with the private sector returned to growth, revenues rose and provisions for loan losses declined again. The sector has become more profitable and resilient. Challenges remain aplenty, but European banks are definitely heading in the right direction.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Supervision and regulation
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