Focus topic global financial markets

Focus topic: Global financial marketsFollowing the deep crisis from 2007 until 2009 the structures and regulatory frameworks of the global financial markets have transformed as much as the business models of the financial institutions. DB Research is monitoring and participating in the debate about the impact of the new financial market regulatory regime as well as the medium-term effects of the "new normal" on financial markets in both Europe and the US. In addition, our publications illustrate the potential consequences for the players in the global financial markets, for financial products and the infrastructures on which they are based.

 

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28.11.2016
Crumbs or pie – how much will Frankfurt's property market benefit from BREXIT?
Abstract: The question regarding the consequences of a Brexit for the EU, the United Kingdom and Germany is expected to remain unanswered for some time. The political uncertainties and exit scenarios range from a contentious separation to a second referendum. At present, however, we can expect that Frankfurt will be one of places to benefit most from a Brexit. In light of the differences between the size of London and Frankfurt, London's crumbs could become Frankfurt's pie. The relocation of jobs to Frankfurt is also likely to boost property demand. The additional demand potential is welcome on the Frankfurt office market because it will equalise structurally induced reductions in the financial sector and will tend to lead to further reductions in vacancies and increase rents. The assumed 5,000 office workers are likely to relocate to the highly priced sub-markets close to the city centre. However, as new building projects also focus on these sub-markets, positive demand effects will be diluted. Because of existing demand overhangs, disadvantages are emerging on the Frankfurt residential property market from a potential relocation of employees. Price growth and the shortage of housing will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. An additional 5,000 homes and a correspondingly elevated housing shortage are likely to drive prices up by more than EUR 100 per m². While purchase prices remain affordable thanks to low interest rates, they are strongly dependent on future interest rate developments.
Topics: Banking; Brexit; Cities; Commercial real estate; European issues; Germany; Global financial markets; Housing policy; Real estate; Residential real estate; Tax policy
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23.11.2016
Cash, freedom and crime: Use and impact of cash in a world going digital
Abstract: Despite a growing role of electronic payments, demand for cash is on the rise in Europe. Euro cash in circulation has increased to EUR 1.1 trillion, three times as much as in 2003. Cash limits the power of monetary authorities, provides data protection and can therefore act as a guarantor of civil liberties. On the other hand, it is often associated with a stronger shadow economy, even though the shift towards a cashless society seems to trigger higher levels of card fraud.
Topics: Banking; Digitalisation; EMU; European issues; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; Information technology; International financial system; Monetary policy; Payments and market infrastructures; Social values / Consumer behaviour
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18.11.2016
European bank performance: The deposit conundrum
Abstract: European banking sector results improved in the third quarter after a weak first half of the year. Still, all revenue components registered year-over-year declines, only partly offset by falling costs and lower loan losses. While credit growth remains nearly non-existent, deposit growth has picked up further momentum and is now at its strongest since 2009. This comes despite record-low borrowing costs for customers and deposit rates virtually at zero. Going forward, following the US election, one of the biggest unknowns is the future direction of prudential regulation at the global level, where changes could have a material impact on European banks.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Supervision and regulation
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29.09.2016
Start-ups and their financing in Europe: Out of the woods with Capital Markets Union
Abstract: Ensuring sufficient funding for European start-ups forms an integral part of the emerging European Capital Markets Union (CMU). Cost-efficient solutions are necessary to reverse the 40% decline in small IPOs in recent years. To strengthen bank lending to start-ups, reviving the securitisation market and potentially establishing an SME-covered bond market is crucial. Venture capital investments are also subdued – most recently, they were only one tenth of the level in the US. To increase them, institutional investors should be granted more flexibility in their portfolio allocations. Finally, the EU hosts more than 500 crowd funding platforms. A common legal and regulatory approach could stir consolidation and thereby reduce search costs for investors and borrowers alike.
Topics: Banking; Capital markets policy; EU enlargement; European issues; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Supervision and regulation
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23.08.2016
Robo advice – when machines manage your assets (Fintech #8)
Abstract: Many of the things that had us gasping in amazement when we watched science fiction films just a few decades ago have now become a mass-market reality. Today, Hollywood shows us what we can expect if we continue to develop digital technologies at the current pace. Of course, artificial intelligence and its use in all areas of our lives are undoubtedly still a long way off. However, substantial progress is being made especially when it comes to pattern recognition, modern data analysis and the use of self-learning algorithms. Without this technological progress, we would no longer be able to cope with the exponential growth in data volumes and data potential of which we can still only begin to conceive. We need the machines.
Topics: Banking; Economic structure; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; International capital markets; International financial system; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Sectors / commodities; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; Trade
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18.08.2016
European banks: Recovery running out of steam?
Abstract: The European banking industry has gone into reverse gear this year so far, following substantial progress in 2014 and 2015. Its revenues and profits have relapsed into contraction, and the potential for lower loan loss provisions to come to the rescue seems exhausted. Once more, cost cuts have not kept pace with the retreat on the income side. In a market environment that continues to be very challenging, banks may have to resort to even tougher measures to put themselves on a sustainable footing again.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!
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21.06.2016
European bank performance: Weak start to the year, but no disaster
Abstract: After two years of recovery, European banks suffered a setback in the first quarter of 2016. Capital market revenues were hit by concerns about global economic growth and banks’ own business models. Cost cuts and a further decline in loan loss provisions helped only somewhat to smooth the fall in profitability. Still, net income was about the same as in Q1 2014, and progress continued in other areas.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Supervision and regulation
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16.06.2016
Presentation: Non-performing loans in Europe and the US – impact on banks & customers
Topics: Banking; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system
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14.06.2016
ECB’s corporate bond purchase programme: More distortions
Abstract: Since the ECB’s announcement to include investment-grade corporate bonds in its QE programme (CSPP), corporate bond issuance has surged in the euro area. However, even though this is a boon for issuers, benefits for the real economy may be quite limited. The value added for SMEs is hard to see, and funds raised will most likely be used predominantly for refinancing of existing debt and for stock buybacks instead of new investments. Moreover, potential side effects of the corporate bond programme such as inefficiencies in the pricing of risks and deterioration in liquidity could increase the distortions in bond markets.
Topics: Banking; EMU; European issues; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; IMF / World Bank; International capital markets; International financial system; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures; Supervision and regulation; WTO
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24.05.2016
High-frequency trading: Reaching the limits
Abstract: The tremendous growth momentum in high-frequency trading seems to have reached its limits in recent years. The increasing cost of infrastructure and relentless competition within the industry are probably the first to blame. In addition, high-frequency trading firms are hardly participating in those dark pools where large block transactions are executed. Both trends are challenging their business model and trading strategies as high-frequency traders have seen their revenues and profits erode. Furthermore, forthcoming tighter prudential regulatory oversight may lead to an overhang of capacity in the high-frequency trading industry.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures; Supervision and regulation
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