Focus topic global financial markets

Focus topic: Global financial marketsFollowing the deep crisis from 2007 until 2009 the structures and regulatory frameworks of the global financial markets have transformed as much as the business models of the financial institutions. DB Research is monitoring and participating in the debate about the impact of the new financial market regulatory regime as well as the medium-term effects of the "new normal" on financial markets in both Europe and the US. In addition, our publications illustrate the potential consequences for the players in the global financial markets, for financial products and the infrastructures on which they are based.

 

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04.02.2016
Payments in the euro area: Are they stagnating? – No!
Abstract: In 2014, for the first time, the number of cashless payments in the euro area did not grow – according to ECB figures. The transaction volume remained flat at 68 bn payments. However, this is due to an overhaul of the statistical methodology which caused breaks in many of the series. Corrected for this, there was actually a strong development of the market: cashless payments grew by about 7% yoy or almost 5 bn transactions. This growth rate is even at the upper end of growth in recent years.
Topics: Banking; Global financial markets; International financial system; Key issues; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures
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23.12.2015
Promoting investment and growth: The role of development banks in Europe
Abstract: The financial and economic crisis brought development banks back in the spotlight. They are seen as part of the economic policy toolkit for overcoming cyclical and structural difficulties in economies, complementing financial systems by improving their functioning and bolstering economic resilience. Interest in development banking to promote growth and boost investment has increased especially in Europe of late. Given the current economic environment and changes in Europe’s banking and financial markets, development banks are bound to continue playing an important role in the coming years. Rather than crisis relief, their focus is shifting (back) to supporting structural change in economies. Here, they can play a useful complementary role, focusing on areas of market failure but risks lie with potential “overburdening” of development banks and setting expectations too high for what they can achieve.
Topics: Banking; Economic policy; European issues; European policy issues; Global financial markets; IMF / World Bank; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues
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18.12.2015
European banks: Exit the crisis, enter the new normal?
Abstract: With 2016 just around the corner, the outlook for the European banking sector in the new year looks more promising than it has been for almost a decade. Growth, though meagre, has returned to many business segments and regions. Despite unrelenting pressure on interest margins, total revenues are expanding. Asset quality is improving and profits in 2015 may be the highest since 2007. The biggest questions surround the future path of regulation (where another major round of tightening could paradoxically threaten the recently hard-won stability) and of the European and global economy (which has repeatedly and substantially surprised to the downside in recent years) in 2016.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues
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09.12.2015
Instant revolution of payments? The quest for real-time payments
Abstract: As digital processes reshape commerce and social life, payment service providers are striving to offer users instruments to transfer funds in a way that matches this immediacy and ubiquity. With the payments market in such a flux, the ECB is pushing banks to provide at least one pan-European instant payment solution in order to prevent a re-fragmentation of the Single Euro Payments Area. However, instant services can be based on different technical set-ups: closed-loop, open-loop and decentralised payment networks. There is an opportunity for new technologies and providers to cater for user needs and win market share. Innovation in instant payments will not alter the economics of payments, though. Positive network externalities and economies of scale in electronic processing will probably lead to a consolidation around a few instant payment systems in the long run.
Topics: E-commerce; EMU; European issues; Global financial markets; Information technology; Innovation; International capital markets; International financial system; Internet; Key issues; Other financial institutions; Payments and market infrastructures; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Technology and innovation
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04.12.2015
Who are the end-users in the OTC derivatives market?
Abstract: Available data suggests that OTC derivatives are primarily used to hedge business risks. The perception that the OTC derivatives market is an inter-dealer market looks exaggerated; by contrast, non-dealers are the investors in the majority of trades. Derivatives may thus help the efficient distribution of risk in financial markets.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues
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02.11.2015
Presentation: Which role have banks to play in Europe?
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Supervision and regulation
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02.11.2015
Capital Markets Union: An ambitious goal, but few quick wins
Abstract: The creation of a European Capital Markets Union (CMU) aims to establishing a single market for capital to complement bank financing. In this paper, we make a quantitative assessment of the European stock, bond and securitisation markets to look at the CMU’s potential. Our results reveal that liquidity and IPO trends in European stock markets are similar to those in the US. However, market integration has slowed down in recent years, which the CMU could counter by harmonising company, securities and insolvency laws. European corporate bond markets have become a notable alternative to bank lending but their investor base remains restricted, which the CMU should address. The securitisation market in Europe has performed well throughout the crises and its revival is a sine qua non for lending to regain traction, especially to SMEs. The CMU should thus target a less punitive regulatory treatment for this market segment.
Topics: Capital markets; EU enlargement; European issues; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues; Supervision and regulation
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19.10.2015
The digital credo of traditional banks: Data protection & data security (Fintech #4)
Abstract: Contrary to what some critics say, traditional banks would be well advised to start using digital and algorithm-based data analysis instruments now. In future, this will be the only way they can offer their customers personalised financial services and recommendations and continually optimise their internal processes. Should they hesitate, however, the technology-driven, non-bank market newcomers will continue to extend their information lead and in time begin to offer more financial services (also outside the retail banking segment) that are easy to standardise and automate. The latter would further intensify cut-throat competition in the financial industry and could reduce traditional banks in the case of some financial services to pure-play infrastructure providers with declining customer contact. The introduction of so-called recommendation algorithms should be accompanied by the mandatory consent of the customer and transparent communication on how they function.
Topics: Banking; Economic structure; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; International capital markets; International financial system; Internet; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Media/PR & Advertising; Sectors / commodities; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Telecommunication; Trade
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01.10.2015
Presentation: German FinTechs and traditional banks: Friend or Foe?
Topics: Banking; E-commerce; Financial market trends; Germany; Global financial markets; Information technology; Innovation; International capital markets; Internet
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21.08.2015
The sun is shining again: European banks rebound
Abstract: After literally seven lean years, the European banking industry’s recovery from the financial crisis is now in full swing. Profits are at their highest level since 2007, revenues are growing across the board (helped by favourable currency effects) and loan losses are falling. Banks are also expanding business volumes. Capital ratios are on average substantially above Basel III requirements, though uncertainty has increased recently due to a pending further regulatory tightening (“Basel IV”).
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues
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