Focus topic Germany

Focus topic: GermanyGermany has recovered well from the global financial and economic crisis. Achieving sustainable growth, however, will require further improvements to the macroeconomic framework. This is a job for policymakers, businesspeople and the public alike. DB Research’s contribution will be to analyse the broad spectrum of issues, discussing possible solutions as well as the economic and political outlook. These range from assessments of economic-policy decisions and analyses of cyclical activity and sector trends right through to the effects of international developments on Germany as a business location.

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Title
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03.04.2014
Is Germany on the way to becoming a gerontocracy?
Abstract: This question currently inevitably comes to mind given the expensive pension policy plans of the grand coalition. While many female pensioners and people close to the retirement age are going to benefit from the increase in pensions for mothers of children born before 1992, pension at 63 and other additional benefits, it is above all the younger generation that has to foot the bill for the coalition's generosity which will total EUR 230 bn by 2030.
Topics: Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Politics and elections; Provision for old age
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18.03.2014
Data sovereignty out of balance
Abstract: I use the internet every day, at work and at home. Routine actions, performed using the latest web-based technology, make my life much easier. Every click on an online portal, every voice command to a mobile device and each use of GPS saves me valuable time and search costs. Many internet services increase my efficiency, my productivity and my level of comfort on a daily basis. And my consumption continues unabated, at least for the time being. But these internet services are not really free, in fact they come at a considerable price. Although it does not cost me any money to access them, I am still paying, by more or less voluntarily providing my personal digital data.
Topics: Auto industry; E-commerce; Economic policy; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; Internet; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Media/PR & Advertising; Retail trade; SMEs; Sectors / commodities; Services; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; Trade
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28.02.2014
Focus Germany: 2% GDP growth in 2015 despite adverse employment policy
Abstract: The details of the 0.4% qoq GDP increase released this week have not altered our GDP forecast of 1.5% for 2014. If anything, they have added to our suspicion that current surveys (corporate and consumer) might paint a too rosy picture. However, we have turned somewhat more optimistic with regard to 2015, increasing our GDP forecast from 1.4% to 2.0%.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics
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28.02.2014
Immigration: Level-headed debate a help
Abstract: If the Federal Statistical Office's initial estimates hold, there had been over 400,000 more immigrants to Germany in 2013 than there were emigrants. This would be the largest migration surplus in 20 years. The surge in immigration ensures that the population continues to grow, as already in 2012 and 2011, even though Germany shows an ongoing birth deficit. It was only a few short years ago, however, that this sole source of population growth in ageing Germany seemed to be on the cusp of drying up. In 2008 and 2009, migration deficits sparked concern that the population might shrink faster than anticipated at the time. This did not bode well especially for the German labour market.
Topics: Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Labour market policy; Social policy
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24.02.2014
Can Hollande pull off a Schröder and will it work?
Abstract: With the New Year came a new Hollande pledging to build a New France. Still, most of the announcements made in January by the French President merely confirmed a prudent policy inflexion which started last year. Hollande is counting on the solemnity of the speech, putting economic reforms more firmly on the French political agenda. But the reforms are likely to be slow, and the transition will be costly in terms of growth. This will weaken France's reserves of political energy for European reform for many years. Actually, the structural hurdles to reform are more firmly entrenched in France than in Germany 10 years ago. Thus the adjustment is likely to be slower to yield any meaningful results on potential growth than in the German experience and a meaningful structural re-convergence of the two countries will be slow.
Topics: Business cycle; EMU; Economic policy; European issues; Fiscal policy; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Social policy; Socio-econ. trends
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11.02.2014
German air travel market posts below-average growth again
Topics: Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Transport; Transport policy
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31.01.2014
German pension policy ignores demographics
Abstract: The recent meeting of the German cabinet at its retreat in Meseberg brought the confirmation: the grand coalition is sticking with plans to "inflate" benefits in the statutory pension system. The possibility of a full pension at 63 (instead of 65+), the "pension for older mothers" and higher disability pensions are to be pushed through parliament, as stipulated in the coalition agreement, in a fast-track procedure. The new benefits are to be available starting in summer. Subsequently, a further project is on the agenda: higher pensions for low earners from 2017.
Topics: Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Provision for old age; Social policy
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27.01.2014
Focus Germany: Onward and upward
Abstract: We see economic growth in the order of 1.5% this year. Continuously strong private consumption and a rise in investment in machinery and equipment for the first time in two years are expected to lay the foundation for this solid performance. Moreover, we expect net exports to rise slightly as well in light of a global economic recovery. The labour market will remain a fundamental pillar of domestic demand also in 2014. With oil prices still relatively stable and tame domestic price developments, we expect the rate of inflation to come in at roughly the pre-year level of 1.5% on average in 2014. After a nearly balanced public-sector budget in 2013 a slight surplus seems to be in store for 2014, and public debt will likely fall in the direction of 76% of GDP, down from 81% at the end of 2012.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Electrical engineering; Energy policy; Exchange rates; Food and beverages; Germany; Globalisation; Key issues; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Residential real estate; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Steel industry; Trade
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20.01.2014
Outlook on the German housing market
Abstract: In 2013, German house prices continued to increase at a rapid pace. On average, residential property prices gained more than 6% as apartment prices rose by more than 7%. Prices for single-family houses and terraced houses grew at nearly 5%. The price dynamics varied strongly. Among the 125 most important cities (BulwienGesa), twelve reported price increases exceeding 10%, compared to only seven cities in 2012, one in 2011, and none in 2010 and 2009.
Topics: Germany; Macroeconomics; Real estate; Residential real estate
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17.01.2014
Fixed-line broadband: Alternatives to DSL constantly gaining ground
Topics: Economic structure; Germany; Privatisation/liberalisation; Telecommunication
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