Focus topic Germany

Focus topic: GermanyGermany has recovered well from the global financial and economic crisis. Achieving sustainable growth, however, will require further improvements to the macroeconomic framework. This is a job for policymakers, businesspeople and the public alike. DB Research’s contribution will be to analyse the broad spectrum of issues, discussing possible solutions as well as the economic and political outlook. These range from assessments of economic-policy decisions and analyses of cyclical activity and sector trends right through to the effects of international developments on Germany as a business location.

1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10previous Page - vorherige Seitenext Page - naechste Seite
Date
Title
Size
12.05.2016
Focus Germany: How to pay for retirement?
Abstract: CSU leader Seehofer and SPD leader Gabriel have advocated a stabilization of the level of the public pension scheme’s benefits. This would mean to skip one of the past decade’s major social policy reforms that aimed at enhancing the public budgets' fiscal sustainability. Mr. Seehofer has even questioned the complete architecture of Germany’s pension system by also stating that the Riester-Pension had failed. Obviously both party leaders are in search for popular topics for the imminent federal election campaign, given that in 2017 more than one third of the eligible voters will be 60 years old or older. But it is doubtful whether the promotion of pensioners‘ interests will help both leaders to improve their parties’ image. Further topics in this issue: High returns on direct investments in Germany, Global trade growth remains subdued.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Intern. relations; Key issues; Politics and elections; Provision for old age; Real econ. trends; Trade
load Pdf 2312k 
04.04.2016
Focus Germany: Solid growth but difficulties for exports and construction
Abstract: According to our and consensus expectations Germany will record 4 years (2014-2017) of above potential GDP growth in an extremely narrow range of 1.5% to 1.7%, despite substantial shocks and massive swings in growth drivers. If growth breaks out, a downside move seems more likely than higher growth. The economic slowdown in the oil-producing countries due to the falling oil price also carries implications for the German economy in terms of its foreign trade. Although the overall effect is positive for the German economy, German exports to oil-producing countries remain under pressure. Capital spending on residential construction has been growing sluggishly in recent years. The main reasons are: a shortage of building land, increased regulatory hurdles in virtually all construction sectors, high construction costs and a lack of skilled workers in the construction industry.
Topics: Business cycle; Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real estate; Residential real estate; Sectors / commodities; Trade
load Pdf 2002k 
22.03.2016
The end of the golden era for oil states continues to curb German export growth in 2016
Abstract: In 2015, exports of German goods to the oil states declined by 7.4%. This was the third fall in a row. Growing exports to the United Arab Emirates (primarily aircraft) and Saudi Arabia prevented an even worse result. As oil prices will initially remain low, German exports to the oil-producing countries are expected to fall again in 2016. Our export indicator points to a decline of approximately 5%. Among the major German industrial sectors, mechanical engineering is likely to be hardest hit by falling demand from the oil states, as was the case in 2015. Overall, the significance of the oil producers as a market for German industry will continue to decline in 2016.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Electrical engineering; Emerging markets; Energy sector; Exchange rates; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Middle East; Other sectors; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Trade
load Pdf 
03.03.2016
Focus Germany: 2016 GDP growth: External headwinds & domestic tailwinds
Abstract: Despite the challenging environment German exporters gained global market share in 2015. The year 2016 has not got off to an auspicious start, however. Our new “Export Indicator” points to a double whammy for German exports in 2016. The less favourable outlook for the demand and especially for the exchange rate impact looks set to slow export growth to around 3% in 2016. When analysing German exports, it is worth looking at sector-specific factors as they can play an even more important role than the macroeconomic environment. Overall, German industry faces a challenging year for exports. Further topics in this issue: House prices: Imminent return to normal, overvaluation likely; GDP growth 2016: More domestically driven & facing more downside risks; Merkel likely to weather even weak state election results.
Topics: Business cycle; Cities; Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Real estate; Residential real estate; Trade
load Pdf 2841k 
22.02.2016
Germany's manufacturing output disappoints at the end of 2015 and starts 2016 with a burden
Abstract: Manufacturing output in Germany increased by 1.1% in real terms in 2015. Just over half of this growth resulted from 2015 having more working days than 2014. Among the main industrial sectors, pharmaceuticals (+4.3%) and automotives (+2.6%) recorded the highest growth rates. By contrast, the mechanical engineering and chemical industries suffered declines in production of 1.1% and 0.4% respectively. Mixed signals are currently shaping the outlook for 2016. For example, the slowdown in growth in major sales markets is being offset by a relatively high capacity utilisation rate in industry at the start of the year, as well as a positive trend in core orders. On the whole, we confirm our forecast that manufacturing output in Germany is not likely to do more than stagnate in 2016. Nevertheless, in light of global economic and geopolitical risks, as well as turmoil in the financial and commodities markets, a certain disturbing feeling remains to the effect that manufacturing output in Germany could also be worse than projected this year.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Electrical engineering; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry
load Pdf 
28.01.2016
Focus Germany: Above potential growth, no wage excesses
Abstract: After three years of high GDP forecast accuracy, we were off the mark by a substantial margin in 2015. The miss can mainly be traced to our assumptions with regard to oil, the USD, the magnitude of the refugee influx and a bit of bad timing, as the USD and oil saw a massive adjustment right after we had published our 2015 forecast. Last year’s imponderables are once again at the top of our list of forecast uncertainties for 2016. In this issue we also look at the wage round in 2016 and Chancellor Merkel’s asylum policy.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation
load Pdf 1090k 
22.12.2015
Automotive industry dominates German foreign direct investment
Topics: Auto industry; Chemicals industry; Economic policy; Economic structure; Economic trends; Electrical engineering; Germany; Globalisation; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities
load Pdf 
16.12.2015
Focus Germany: Pick-up in the domestic economy in 2016
Abstract: The German economy was extremely stable over the course of 2015, although the volatile newsflow that ranged from the oil price shock, material euro exchange rate depreciation, “Dieselgate” right through to the refugee crisis could make one think otherwise. Driven by a 15-year high in private consumption growth economic output rose by more than 1 ½% in 2015, as already achieved in 2014. Economic growth is set to accelerate to nearly 2% in 2016, following a pretty stable trend over the course of the year. Private consumption should remain the most important growth driver. Public consumption will remain expansionary given the continued influx of refugees and resulting public spending. If refugees can be successfully integrated into the labour market, the refugee crisis will provide Germany's ageing society with a medium-term opportunity.
Topics: Business cycle; Demographics; Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Social policy; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Trade
load Pdf 1664k 
03.12.2015
German industry: Little more than stagnation in 2016
Abstract: Industrial output in Germany is likely to expand by around 0.5% in real terms in 2015. For 2016, we expect growth close to zero. This means the sustained phase of relatively muted economic dynamics of industrial output seen since 2012 would continue. The rather stable development of producer prices in recent months also provides evidence that would indicate subdued industrial activity. Our forecast for industrial output implies that manufacturing’s share in total German gross value added will shrink for 2015 and 2016.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic structure; Electrical engineering; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Textiles and clothing industry
load Pdf 641k 
26.11.2015
Logistics in Germany: Only modest growth in the near term
Abstract: The logistics sector in Germany is characterised by innovative and diversified companies as well as very good location factors. There are, however, economic and structural factors which suggest that turnover growth will be relatively moderate over the next few years. Between 2003 and 2008 sector turnover grew by a nominal 4.6% per year. Following the recession, that is from 2009 to 2014, the growth rate dropped to 3.4% p.a. (while the inflation rate was somewhat lower). Over the next five years average annualised nominal turnover growth is likely to be more in the range of between 2% and 3%. This would propel sector turnover through the EUR 300 bn barrier. The logistics sector will remain a focus of state regulation; this is true particularly of the important transport segment.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic structure; Environmental policy; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Sectors / commodities; Services; Sustainability; Trade; Transport; Transport policy
load Pdf 484k 
1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10previous Page - vorherige Seitenext Page - naechste Seite
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
Interactive maps
Copyright © 2016 Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main