Focus topic Germany

Focus topic: GermanyGermany has recovered well from the global financial and economic crisis. Achieving sustainable growth, however, will require further improvements to the macroeconomic framework. This is a job for policymakers, businesspeople and the public alike. DB Research’s contribution will be to analyse the broad spectrum of issues, discussing possible solutions as well as the economic and political outlook. These range from assessments of economic-policy decisions and analyses of cyclical activity and sector trends right through to the effects of international developments on Germany as a business location.

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12.03.2015
German manufacturing suffering slump in business with Russia
Abstract: In 2014, Germany exported goods worth EUR 1.1 tr (+3.7%), which represented a new record high. Conversely, German exports to Russia fell by 18% because of the latter's economic and political problems, with the declines in certain sectors even exceeding 30%. True, the share of total German exports going to Russia has decreased to only 2.6% (2013: 3.3%; 2012: 3.5%), but certain sectors and companies are nevertheless being hit hard by the decline. We expect exports to Russia to drop significantly in 2015, too. Out of Germany's major manufacturing sectors it is probably engineering that is suffering the most as Russia is still one of its biggest foreign markets.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Electrical engineering; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Trade
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02.03.2015
Focus Germany: Stronger growth and wages – little reaction from savers
Abstract: The Q4 GDP details corroborate that the German economy ended 2014 on a high note (+0.7% qoq vs +0.1% in Q3) as private consumption received a substantial stimulus from the drop of the oil prices. We increase our 2015 GDP forecast to 2.0% from 1.4% previously. This is especially due to the much larger carry-over effect courtesy of the marked Q4 GDP growth. In addition, we raise our Q1 GDP forecast to 0.5% qoq as the renewed oil price drop will boost consumption again. Sentiment also improved further in January/February with ifo expectations and the composite PMI pointing to 0.5% and 0.4% growth, respectively.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Financial market trends; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Labour market policy; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Socio-econ. trends
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20.02.2015
Open data – unrecognised potential
Abstract: The commercial and data protection foundations for debate about big data may well already be in place. But far removed from the debate about monetisation and data misuse there is another world in which data applications, regardless of their data volumes, can provide a valuable economic benefit to society. Our increasingly digital and data-driven economy enables us to more rapidly detect potential ways to boost efficiency and productivity and subject them to closer scrutiny. In this context, the desire for greater transparency, participation and collaboration provides an important motive for experimenting ultimately in fact with new forms of democratic processes. The initially exponential growth in the volume of data and its intelligent evaluation provide the fertile breeding ground needed for innovation and economic growth in the digital age.
Topics: Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic structure; Economic trends; Education; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; Internet; Key issues; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Media/PR & Advertising; Privatisation/liberalisation; SMEs; Sectors / commodities; Services; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Sustainability; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; The professions
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06.02.2015
German industry: Upbeat end to 2014, improved outlook for 2015
Abstract: Manufacturing output in Germany rose by 1.9% in real terms in 2014. Q4 helped to end the year on an upbeat note, as a decline in output at the end of 2014 – which we had still been forecasting in autumn – did not materialise. The outlook for 2015 has also improved. German industry is getting a boost from the depreciation of the euro, which is materialising faster and more heavily than expected, as well as from the surprisingly steep drop in the oil price. We have therefore recently raised our forecast for manufacturing output in 2015 in real terms ¾% to 1.5%.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Electrical engineering; Exchange rates; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry
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02.02.2015
Focus Germany: German growth after oil, EUR and ECB
Abstract: Late last year we raised our GDP forecast for Germany from 0.8% to 1.0% on account of the steep downside correction on expectations for oil prices. We now expect German GDP growth to hit 1.4% in 2015. Reasons: Growth slightly exceeded expectations in Q4 2014; the oil price forecast for 2015 has been lowered again; and the euro has fallen more sharply against the US dollar than anticipated. Given this good outlook for the economy Germany's public budgets are likely to show a slight surplus again in 2015. Moreover, the current account surplus is set to jump to 8% of GDP. This suggests there will be further calls for Germany to use its fiscal room for manoeuvre to pursue a public investment programme. Also, international criticism of German economic policy is likely to grow louder. Further topics in this issue: German industrial output forecast upped to 1.5%, 10 "golden" rules for ifo, PMI and Co., The view from Berlin.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Sectors / commodities
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16.01.2015
Industry 4.0, Big Data and the cloud: driving tomorrow's innovations
Topics: Economic structure; Economic trends; Electrical engineering; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Services; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
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09.01.2015
Capital investment in Germany at sectoral level: Service providers continue to expand while industry contracts slightly
Abstract: Germany's service sectors have shown themselves to be keener to invest than industry in recent years. The net fixed assets held by the service sectors grew by almost 28% in real terms between 1995 and 2012, although their growth rate has slowed over time. By contrast, the capital stock in the industrial sectors has shrunk by 1.6% in real terms. While, on the one hand, politicians in Germany have been expressing regret or even voicing criticism over the country's current lack of capital spending, on the other they have recently introduced measures (such as their policies on pensions and labour markets) that are hampering investment in Germany rather than stimulating it; this approach is inconsistent.
Topics: Auto industry; Chemicals industry; Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic structure; Electrical engineering; Energy sector; Food and beverages; Gas industry; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Key issues; Labour market policy; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Retail trade; Sectors / commodities; Services; Social policy; Steel industry; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; Textiles and clothing industry; Transport
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06.01.2015
Focus Germany – Outlook 2015: Recovery with risks attached
Abstract: Following a weak winter half in 2014/15 the economy looks likely to regain its footing as 2015 progresses. However, sluggish performance at the turn of the year means growth will probably average only 1% in 2015 after 1.4% in 2014. It is encouraging, however, that private consumption should remain a major pillar of growth, whereas net exports are likely to have a neutral impact. Nonetheless, signs are increasing that some – in our opinion misguided – economic policy moves (such as the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage as well as an enhanced pensions package) are weighing on the labour market and thus on consumption. Given a weakening of cyclical activity and the costs of economic policy measures, we expect the general government budget to be slightly in deficit in 2015.
Topics: Business cycle; Capital markets; Economic growth; Fiscal policy; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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06.01.2015
Augmented reality: Fears should not completely overshadow the opportunities that beckon
Abstract: Major trade events such as the upcoming CES for consumer technology and also the recently held Medica for healthcare are the showcases for augmented reality products available in the near future: dental implants that enable deaf people to hear; electronic gloves that convert sign language into text and smart glasses that display information about what or who is facing the wearer. These innovations are highly attractive, but also stoke fears – especially about potential privacy infringements. These fears definitely need to be taken seriously. They should not, however, be allowed to completely overshadow the potential of the myriad business and social opportunities that extend far beyond cutting costs and minimising the risks associated with particularly critical activities.
Topics: E-commerce; Electrical engineering; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Key issues; Media/PR & Advertising; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
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12.12.2014
New deal(s)? Chinese investment in Germany is entering a new phase
Abstract: China-Europe relations are increasingly being shaped by the expanding bilateral exchange between China and Germany, its largest trading partner in the EU. Germany accounted for 45% of EU exports to China and 28% of EU imports from China in 2013. In the first nine months of 2014, EUR 114 bn worth of goods were shipped between the two countries, up 8% from the same period in 2013. Building on these well-established trade ties, China and Germany are now embarking on a concerted push to strengthen investment relations in sync with a surge in Chinese M&A activity into Germany.
Topics: Asia; Economic policy; Emerging markets; European issues; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Key issues
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