Focus topic Germany

Focus topic: GermanyGermany has recovered well from the global financial and economic crisis. Achieving sustainable growth, however, will require further improvements to the macroeconomic framework. This is a job for policymakers, businesspeople and the public alike. DB Research’s contribution will be to analyse the broad spectrum of issues, discussing possible solutions as well as the economic and political outlook. These range from assessments of economic-policy decisions and analyses of cyclical activity and sector trends right through to the effects of international developments on Germany as a business location.

1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10previous Page - vorherige Seitenext Page - naechste Seite
Date
Title
Size
17.04.2015
Minimum wage: First negative effects become visible
Abstract: Roughly 100 days have passed since the introduction of the minimum wage, and the Minister of Labour Andrea Nahles is already calling it a success story. However, we would urge caution given the considerable time lags with the effects of the minimum wage of EUR 8.50 per hour. In the medium term, we continue to expect clearly negative effects on employment and a missing of the targets of a more just income distribution and fiscal relief. In the medium term, we still expect a negative employment effect of 800,000 persons in line with our ex-ante study "Minimum wage of EUR 8.50 per hour: Grand Coalition on the wrong track".
Topics: Business cycle; Germany; Labour market; Labour market policy
load Pdf 
09.04.2015
Biotechnology: Funding gap jeopardising competitiveness
Abstract: Biotechnology is one of the key technologies for securing Germany's position as a manufacturing location. While biotechnology research in Germany is being conducted at the leading edge and grants make it easier to set up a biotech firm, young companies often encounter funding bottlenecks when the start-up financing phase comes to an end. One indicator of how grave the funding situation is in Germany is that the average amount of venture capital available to a company is around four times as high in the US as it is in Germany. This funding gap could jeopardise Germany's high-tech strategy objective of beefing up key technologies in the domestic market.
Topics: Food and beverages; Germany; Globalisation; Health care; Intangible assets; Key issues; Other sectors; SMEs; Sectors / commodities; Tax policy; Technology and innovation
load Pdf 460k 
30.03.2015
Focus Germany: German exporters facing strong headwind despite softer euro
Abstract: The combination of the structural global trade slowdown, increased localization of production, demographic changes in Germany, the impact of recent economic policy decisions and further toughening of international competition are likely to be a considerable challenge for German exporters over the medium term. Thus, the domestic economy will play a bigger role again. Government policies can help ease the transition. German exporters could become even more globally active firms over the medium term. The specific reactions will vary by sector, though. The earnings generated by these firms around the globe are likely to be a blessing for an aging and more domestically driven economy in the decades ahead.
Topics: Banking; Business cycle; Capital markets; EMU; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; European policy issues; Fiscal policy; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Trade
load Pdf 2153k 
30.03.2015
Weak investment in the healthcare system
Abstract: Since around 2009, the German healthcare system has been characterised by weak investment. One reason is that public subsidies for the sector have been reduced. This development harbours risks, for only a regular renewal of medical appliances and equipment is likely to ensure the high quality of treatment in Germany in the long term. By contrast, lower investments in the building stock would primarily mean a reduction in the current hospital overcapacities.
Topics: Economic policy; Germany; Health care; Key issues; Other sectors; Privatisation/liberalisation; Sectors / commodities; Services; Social policy
load Pdf 
12.03.2015
German manufacturing suffering slump in business with Russia
Abstract: In 2014, Germany exported goods worth EUR 1.1 tr (+3.7%), which represented a new record high. Conversely, German exports to Russia fell by 18% because of the latter's economic and political problems, with the declines in certain sectors even exceeding 30%. True, the share of total German exports going to Russia has decreased to only 2.6% (2013: 3.3%; 2012: 3.5%), but certain sectors and companies are nevertheless being hit hard by the decline. We expect exports to Russia to drop significantly in 2015, too. Out of Germany's major manufacturing sectors it is probably engineering that is suffering the most as Russia is still one of its biggest foreign markets.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Electrical engineering; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Trade
load Pdf 
02.03.2015
Focus Germany: Stronger growth and wages – little reaction from savers
Abstract: The Q4 GDP details corroborate that the German economy ended 2014 on a high note (+0.7% qoq vs +0.1% in Q3) as private consumption received a substantial stimulus from the drop of the oil prices. We increase our 2015 GDP forecast to 2.0% from 1.4% previously. This is especially due to the much larger carry-over effect courtesy of the marked Q4 GDP growth. In addition, we raise our Q1 GDP forecast to 0.5% qoq as the renewed oil price drop will boost consumption again. Sentiment also improved further in January/February with ifo expectations and the composite PMI pointing to 0.5% and 0.4% growth, respectively.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Financial market trends; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Labour market policy; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Socio-econ. trends
load Pdf 2120k 
20.02.2015
Open data – unrecognised potential
Abstract: The commercial and data protection foundations for debate about big data may well already be in place. But far removed from the debate about monetisation and data misuse there is another world in which data applications, regardless of their data volumes, can provide a valuable economic benefit to society. Our increasingly digital and data-driven economy enables us to more rapidly detect potential ways to boost efficiency and productivity and subject them to closer scrutiny. In this context, the desire for greater transparency, participation and collaboration provides an important motive for experimenting ultimately in fact with new forms of democratic processes. The initially exponential growth in the volume of data and its intelligent evaluation provide the fertile breeding ground needed for innovation and economic growth in the digital age.
Topics: Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic structure; Economic trends; Education; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; Internet; Key issues; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Media/PR & Advertising; Privatisation/liberalisation; SMEs; Sectors / commodities; Services; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Sustainability; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; The professions
load Pdf 
06.02.2015
German industry: Upbeat end to 2014, improved outlook for 2015
Abstract: Manufacturing output in Germany rose by 1.9% in real terms in 2014. Q4 helped to end the year on an upbeat note, as a decline in output at the end of 2014 – which we had still been forecasting in autumn – did not materialise. The outlook for 2015 has also improved. German industry is getting a boost from the depreciation of the euro, which is materialising faster and more heavily than expected, as well as from the surprisingly steep drop in the oil price. We have therefore recently raised our forecast for manufacturing output in 2015 in real terms ¾% to 1.5%.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Electrical engineering; Exchange rates; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry
load Pdf 
02.02.2015
Focus Germany: German growth after oil, EUR and ECB
Abstract: Late last year we raised our GDP forecast for Germany from 0.8% to 1.0% on account of the steep downside correction on expectations for oil prices. We now expect German GDP growth to hit 1.4% in 2015. Reasons: Growth slightly exceeded expectations in Q4 2014; the oil price forecast for 2015 has been lowered again; and the euro has fallen more sharply against the US dollar than anticipated. Given this good outlook for the economy Germany's public budgets are likely to show a slight surplus again in 2015. Moreover, the current account surplus is set to jump to 8% of GDP. This suggests there will be further calls for Germany to use its fiscal room for manoeuvre to pursue a public investment programme. Also, international criticism of German economic policy is likely to grow louder. Further topics in this issue: German industrial output forecast upped to 1.5%, 10 "golden" rules for ifo, PMI and Co., The view from Berlin.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Sectors / commodities
load Pdf 2333k 
16.01.2015
Industry 4.0, Big Data and the cloud: driving tomorrow's innovations
Topics: Economic structure; Economic trends; Electrical engineering; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Services; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
load Pdf 
1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10previous Page - vorherige Seitenext Page - naechste Seite
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
Interactive maps
Copyright © 2015 Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main