Focus topic Germany

Focus topic: GermanyGermany has recovered well from the global financial and economic crisis. Achieving sustainable growth, however, will require further improvements to the macroeconomic framework. This is a job for policymakers, businesspeople and the public alike. DB Research’s contribution will be to analyse the broad spectrum of issues, discussing possible solutions as well as the economic and political outlook. These range from assessments of economic-policy decisions and analyses of cyclical activity and sector trends right through to the effects of international developments on Germany as a business location.

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Temporary immigration boom: A wake-up call for politicians?
Abstract: Germany has become the No. 1 destination country for migrants in Europe again and No. 2 in the whole OECD after the United States. The turnaround reflects the crisis in the EMU periphery as well as the (postponed) opening of the German labour market to citizens from the 10 Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007. The higher immigration should only temporarily obscure the negative effects from the introduction of a minimum wage and the retirement wave triggered by the "pension at 63" option. Given the economic recovery in the eurozone periphery the present migration surge is unlikely to last and ageing Germany’s demand for labour from outside the EU will increase. Therefore, Germany needs to shape up to encourage more pull-based immigration. This requires a skills-oriented migration policy as well as more flexibility in the labour market and at the company level.
Topics: Demographics; Economic growth; Education; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Socio-econ. trends
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Germany: Above trend, but no price pressure
Abstract: Germany should enjoy the strongest growth among EMU countries, courtesy of a healthy domestic economy. Despite too-low interest rates and a tight labour market, there are no signs of imbalances building up, except maybe residential property markets in some urban centres.
Topics: Business cycle; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Prices, inflation
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Media: New offers and suppliers change business from scratch
Abstract: For a long time, technological progress in the world of media has surpassed the improved image display via screen diagonal or contrast by far. This is not only shown by the gadgets which the TV viewer may use for his or her personal analysis of the games of the FIFA Football World Cup. This opens completely new opportunities and business models for the large field of visual media. More and more, media use is currently understood as a location-, time- and device-independent option with the possibility of personalisation and interaction. Thus, television viewers, who were previously condemned to passivity, now have the option to compose their own programmes and watch at times convenient to them.
Topics: E-commerce; Economic trends; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; Internet; Key issues; Other sectors; Privatisation/liberalisation; Sectors / commodities; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Technology and innovation
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Uneven decline in sectoral exports to Russia
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Eastern Europe; Economic growth; Electrical engineering; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Trade
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Focus Germany: Solid growth, low inflation (despite ECB)
Abstract: After a good start into 2014, manufacturing output in Germany looks set to grow by 4% in real terms in the full year. Even though business expectations have recently weakened somewhat, they remain in positive territory. Despite the good labour market situation in Germany inflation has decelerated noticeably. The outlook of a recovering global economy, a sliding euro and the introduction of a nation-wide minimum wage in Germany lead us to forecast that inflation is bottoming out. After hitting 1.1% in the current year it could pick up to 1.6% in 2015.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Economic structure; Germany; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities
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Professor Stefan Wrobel on the significance of big data, opportunities, risks and future challenges
Abstract: „... Big data does not represent a short-term trend but rather a fundamental change in our way of thinking. Whereas data used to be no more than the necessary raw material for business, it now is a value in its own right and promotes the development of new ideas and business models. For companies, this offers opportunities not only for individual tasks but also regarding their general orientation....”
Topics: E-commerce; Economic trends; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Media/PR & Advertising; Retail trade; SMEs; Sectors / commodities; Services; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Telecommunication; Trade
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Focus Germany: Strong domestic economy to suffer from good intentions
Abstract: With the dream start into 2014 we have lifted our GDP forecast to 1.8% (from 1.5%). For 2015 we maintain our 2% call, as we expect that the only temporary increase in the sum of gross wages resulting from the introduction of the minimum wage will be offset by more cautious investment spending.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; Education; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Social policy; Socio-econ. trends; Trade
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The future of Germany as an automaking location
Abstract: The differences between the German automotive industry and the automotive industry in Germany will continue to expand in the coming years – the construction of production capacities in the growth markets is progressing. Expansion abroad does not have to be to the detriment of Germany as an automaking location. However, a stable or even positive development of Germany as an automotive manufacturing location cannot be taken for granted. We outline three potential scenarios for the development of Germany as an automaking location until 2025. In our most likely scenario domestic car output remains at around its current level until then. At the same time Germany benefits from a gradual recovery in western European car demand. In addition, smaller export markets become more important.
Topics: Auto industry; Economic policy; Economic structure; Electrical engineering; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Key issues; Labour market policy; Mechanical engineering; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Technology and innovation
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Industry 4.0: Huge potential for value creation waiting to be tapped
Abstract: Industry 4.0 (aka "integrated industry") will upgrade as an industrial location by bringing on the fourth industrial revolution. With trade flows becoming increasingly internationally interlinked, the Industry 4.0-related elements of increased automation and more flexible production structures will become more and more important. According to a recent study by Germany's Fraunhofer Institute this opens up the prospect of generating significantly higher added value across numerous sectors. Especially for Germany with its particularly favourable basic conditions, Industry 4.0 thus provides the major opportunity to consolidate the country's appeal in the international competition for investment – also relative to the fast-growing emerging markets.
Topics: Auto industry; E-commerce; Economic growth; Economic structure; Economic trends; Education; Electrical engineering; Germany; Germany 2020; Information technology; Innovation; Intern. economic system; Internet; Key issues; Labour market; Mechanical engineering; Services; Sustainability; Telecommunication
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The economics of sanctions: The West can afford to be tough
Abstract: So far the West has chosen a reluctant approach in its attempt to contain Russia’s encroachment in Ukraine, refraining from economically or financially meaningful sanctions. The Ukraine crisis and further sanctions will not be inconsequential for the profile of the European recovery, but when looking at the distribution of costs, it seems that the West can afford to be tough towards Moscow. Obviously, the economic cost would be higher if Russian supply of energy to the West was jeopardized, but this would come at a very high price for Russia itself.
Topics: Eastern Europe; Economic growth; Emerging markets; European issues; European policy issues; Gas industry; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Key issues; Macroeconomics; Real econ. trends; Risk / Country Risk; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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