Spotlight on Germany
With the sovereign debt crisis enveloping some parts of the euro area the financial markets have intensified their focus on Germany. Political decisions and trends in Europe's largest economy have a major impact on the progress of European integration. Much will also depend on how well Germany can maintain its economic strength. Thus, not only ground-breaking decisions for the euro and the European Union but also resolute reforms for sustainable growth are needed. Correspondingly, we cover a broad spectrum of issues: Deutsche Bank Research offers near-term analyses and comments on Germany's economic, fiscal and European policies, political trends, and the cyclical and sectoral outlook for German business.
Standpunkt Deutschland
Influx of refugees: An opportunity for Germany
The influx of refugees has raised net immigration to Germany to the record level of more than one million. Among the OECD countries, this trend could put Germany ahead of the United States, traditionally the No. 1 destination country for migrants. As a result, Germany faces the difficult − and costly – Herculean task of integrating the refugees and absorbing the supply shock to the labour market. At the same time, the refugees represent an opportunity for rejuvenating an ageing population in Germany, where there is a growing scarcity of labour and the threat of lower structural growth. In our outlined win-win scenario, successful integration offers Germany the opportunity to consolidate its position as Europe’s economic powerhouse and to increase its attractiveness as an immigration country. A sustained high level of net immigration will attenuate the decline of the trend growth rate brought on by an ageing population. Instead of moving closer to stagnation, the trend growth could still amount to 1% in ten to 15 years as well, which would also benefit social systems. [more]
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