European Policy Research
In this section you find analyses and commentaries on European (and especially German) economic and fiscal policy. Particular attention is devoted to the institutional development of the EU, above all monetary union, and its individual policy areas.
Talking Point
Commission Juncker: New team, new structures – new policies?
On Wednesday the Commission's new President Jean-Claude Juncker unveiled the next European Commission. As a new element, Juncker has established an intermediate level of six Vice-Presidents. This new formation of the college of Commissioners could enhance governance efficiency but could also cause rivalries over matters of competence. [more]
Chart in focus
Research Briefing
Referees or spectators? National Parliaments and subsidiarity in the VIIIth European Parliament
The interest for higher democratic accountability in the EU is stronger than ever. Indeed, there is scope for action for stronger involvement of national legislatures at EU level. Within the time frame of the eighth legislative period of the European Parliament (2014-2019), an interinstitutional agreement is a viable option. This could lay down a working definition of subsidiarity, enhance interparliamentary cooperation, and structure the use of ‘yellow cards’. In the medium term, a stronger role for national parliaments would require outright treaty revision. [more]
In focus
Economic and fiscal policy coordination in the euro area: a primer
A factor limiting the scope for a fiscal stimulus at a national level is the euro area’s framework of fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance. In the absence of a central Government, the Euro area has developed a sophisticated system of mechanisms for economic and fiscal policy coordination that aims to prevent moral hazard and crises with a fiscal impact in the future. In the light of the events of the Euro crisis, this framework has recently been revised in various steps. The reforms tightened the rules. However, the framework still offers various possibilities for a flexible interpretation. Looking forward it will be key to reconcile any attempts of a flexible interpretation with the need for rigidity in order to keep the credibility of fiscal and economic surveillance in Europe. [more]
EU Monitor
Better off on their own? Economic aspects of regional autonomy and independence movements in Europe
With the independence referendum in Scotland and unofficial polls in Catalonia and Veneto, separatist aspirations in Europe were recently given a boost. In regions seeking greater self-determination or even full secession, not only emotional and cultural aspects play a role but also concrete financial motives. Nearly all the regions seeking greater autonomy are among the wealthiest in their respective countries and far outstrip the national average in terms of per capita income. Moreover, some of them are substantial net contributors in regional redistribution systems. [more]
Current Issue
Focus Germany: Further disappointments
We have cut our German GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.3% for 2014 and further from 1.5% to 0.8% for 2015. We do not see Germany falling into a technical recession in Q3. But the 6 month slump of the ifo index has increased the risk that we might see a negative GDP print in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015. The positive effect of weaker oil prices will be offset by wage growth slowing from 3% plus this year towards 2% in 2015, as export-orientated sectors will respond to weaker external demand. Further topics in this issue: German industry: Temporary slowdown; German construction: Robust investment, but price momentum slowing; Inheritance tax: Constitutional Court ruling likely to weigh harder on business heirs; 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall: "Blooming landscapes" only in part. [more]
02.02.2015
German GDP forecast, Industrial output forecast, Sentiment data, View from Berlin
05.11.2014
German GDP, German industry, German construction, Inheritance tax, 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall
30.09.2014
GDP forecast 2015, Germany's fiscal position, Russia's gas supplies, Household investment behaviour
Spotlight on Germany
 
 
Publications
Articles on economic policy appear in the following periodicals: 
SMEs
Dataflash Eurozone
    European elections 2014
    Copyright © 2015 Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main