Germany has recovered well from the global financial and economic crisis. Achieving sustainable growth, however, will require further improvements to the macroeconomic framework. This is a job for policymakers, businesspeople and the public alike. DB Research’s contribution will be to analyse the broad spectrum of issues, discussing possible solutions as well as the economic and political outlook. These range from assessments of economic-policy decisions and analyses of cyclical activity and sector trends right through to the effects of international developments on Germany as a business location.

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	Date		Title			Size
	13.06.2013		Constitutional Court hearing on OMT: Much noise but no clear signals Abstract:  On 11 and 12 June, the German Constitutional Court (GCC) held a hearing on pending constitutional complaints against OMT. The critical tenor of the jury’s questions alone should not be taken as guidance on the probable tendency of the judgment... Topics:  Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Politics and elections
	11.06.2013		Peer Steinbrück’s “competence team”: the signal is political change, pure and simple! Abstract:  Peer Steinbrück picked a team of experts and a few experienced members of parliament, thereby signalling his desire for a true policy change. The team is designed to attract voter segments that should be amenable to the message on social justice, healthcare and family issues... Topics:  Economic policy; Germany; Politics and elections
	04.06.2013		Focus Germany: The brave new world of monetary policy Abstract:  Before the global financial and economic crisis erupted central bankers were considered if not the masters of the universe at least the masters of the world of finance. However, serious problems have emerged with regard to both the theoretical underpinnings of monetary policy as well as to its implementation. As the roles of the financial sector and asset bubbles had been neglected, the problems contributed to the development of the global financial crisis. Even though our forecast for German GDP growth in 2013 has hugged the lower end of the consensus range for quite a while, we have slightly reduced our estimate to 0.1% (from 0.3%). The main reasons for doing so are the below-forecast Q1 GDP reading (0.1% qoq) and the downward revision for 2012, which additionally depressed the starting level for 2013. Despite the downward revision to German GDP we now expect private consumption to pick up by 1%. The driving factors are the high employment level, falling inflation and relatively robust wage settlements. Topics:  Business cycle; Capital markets policy; Economic policy; Fiscal policy; Germany; International financial system; Key issues; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Supervision and regulation			2136k
	29.05.2013		German Constitutional Court: Hearing in June unlikely to provide definitive answers on OMT Abstract:  On June 11/12 the German Constitutional Court will conduct a public hearing on the various challenges to the ESM and OMT as well as the other unconventional monetary policy measures. Most observers expect the judgment to be held in late summer possibly even before the German federal elections... Topics:  Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Politics and elections
	14.05.2013		Germans do love tax issues, don’t they? Political camps at loggerheads in slow-motion campaign Abstract:  Germany holds federal elections on September 22. The campaign is still in slow motion. Judging by current polls, the governing coalition is ahead by two to four percentage points but would fail to muster a majority in the next parliament. Nor would the Social Democrats and Greens win together. The most likely outcome is another grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD led by the CDU... Topics:  Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Politics and elections
	14.05.2013		Tax hikes? – Tax cuts? "Softly, softly" is not the worst policy Topics:  Germany			86k
	10.05.2013		Medium-sized enterprises and demographics: Increasing pressure to take action Abstract:  Demographic change has come far as an issue for medium-sized businesses. When it comes to the necessary investments, for example in further training, large family businesses are more advanced than small and medium-sized enterprises. Even though there is no threat of a general deficit in candidates for succession in the foreseeable future, succession arrangements need to be prioritised in many businesses as the number of companies ready for transfer is set to rise. Regardless of whether family succession or an external solution is chosen, transfers are often associated with significant risks. The economic and financial position of the company, the market environment and financial conditions play just as much a role as the motivation, interests and values of those involved. Given the complexity of the transfer and its huge importance in the company's history, experts recommend transfer management in which all the necessary steps are planned and implemented at an early stage. Topics:  Demographics; Economic policy; Economic structure; Germany; Globalisation; Key issues; Labour market; Sectors / commodities; SMEs; Tax policy			795k
	08.05.2013		The Liberals (FDP) – election campaign for another term of the conservative-liberal coalition Abstract:  Over the weekend the FDP approved its manifesto for the federal election campaign. With its positions on economic policy the FDP clearly distances itself from the redistribution focus of SPD and Greens and has dismissed speculation that it might form a coalition with the SPD and Greens (a so-called “traffic-light-coalition”). However, the FDP is not relying on pure market mechanisms, but is also advocating sector-specific and regionally adjusted minimum wages to be more in line with public opinion... Topics:  Economic policy; Germany; Key issues; Politics and elections
	03.05.2013		German holidaymakers remain loyal to southern Europe – with one exception Abstract:  Nearly all the nations of southern Europe were able to welcome more air travellers from Germany in 2012 than in 2005. The tourism sector thus proved to be relatively resistant to the crisis. Of the major holiday destinations in southern Europe only Greece was forced to accept a decline in the number of visitors from Germany during this period. Topics:  Germany; Key issues; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Services; Transport			107k
	30.04.2013		Focus Germany: GDP forecast: Uptick in Q1, slippage in Q2 Abstract:  Over the past few days sentiment has brightened considerably in Germany, and there are even signs of euphoria in some places – Munich and Dortmund in particular. But unlike Germany's two Champions League semi-finalists the economic releases of late have been a sobering disappointment following the encouraging data at the start of the year. For this reason we have slightly lifted our forecast for German Q1 GDP growth from 0.1% qoq to 0.3%. At the same time, though, we cut our expectations for Q2 from 0.4% to 0.2%. On balance this leaves the annual average unchanged at 0.3%. Topics:  Business cycle; Cities; Economic growth; Germany; Key issues; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Real econ. trends; Real estate; Residential real estate; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends			2520k

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