Even though there seem to be fewer acute risks for the euro area, with risk premiums for the crisis countries having fallen, the currency union remains mired in recession. This is probably also due to the very high level of political and economic uncertainty. At least in that respect, things seem to be looking up. [more]

Croatia will join the European Union on July 1, 2013 as its 28th member. It will be the second ex-Yugoslav state to become an EU member after Slovenia, which joined in 2004. Croatia has made great strides regarding its political and economic integration into Europe, providing a template for the rest of the Western Balkans. In the medium term, full access to the single market, increased investor confidence and stronger financial integration should boost the economy – provided that Croatia manages to implement overdue structural reforms, in particular tackling a rigid labour market, an overblown public sector and a weak business climate. Currently, Croatia only satisfies one of the five Maastricht criteria in full. Especially in light of the fiscal challenges, it is therefore highly unlikely that Croatia will join the eurozone before 2020. [more]

ASEAN, a bloc of 10 nations with an aggregate economic size of USD 2.3 tr, is preparing to go through profound changes. Already today, ASEAN is the 3rd pillar of growth in Asia in addition to China and India, with average GDP growth over the past 15 years at around 6% p.a. The region’s prospects will be much enhanced by an ambitious integration effort which seeks to achieve a single market and production base. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)'s envisaged launch at the end of 2015 will be a potential game changer for ASEAN. [more]